At 7,620 points, the Paris Bourse (+1.2%) broke through the 7,600-point barrier with a vengeance.
Shortly after the opening, the CAC 40 even briefly set a new all-time record at 7654 points.

As widely anticipated by the markets, the US Federal Reserve decided last night to keep rates unchanged, while opening the door to a 'pivot' in favor of monetary easing as early as next year (3 easings, whereas the markets are now 'pricentering' the equivalent of 8 or 9 (including -50Pts), and 6 as a minimum.

We see this as a strong signal that the Fed is beginning to prepare the markets for rate cuts, depending on the economic data received", commented Danske Bank analysts.

This prospect is particularly clear from the CME's FedWatch barometer: investors now estimate the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March at over 80%, compared with less than 40% yesterday.

"The question is (...) no longer whether monetary policy will be eased, but when and how quickly", say the teams at Oddo BHF.

By favouring the scenario of a "soft landing" for the US economy (growth of +2.8% in 2024, compared with the OECD's forecast of barely a third), Jerome Powell - the central bank chairman confirming the "Goldilocks" scenario hoped for by Wall Street - precipitated a general surge in stock markets, which were already trading at record levels.

Jerome Powell's dove-like comments triggered a spectacular reaction in the bond markets, sending the yield on 10-year Treasuries plunging to 3.944% (25pts in 24 hours), the first time this has happened since July.

We now turn to the ECB, which is also opting for a "status quo" on rates at the end of its Governing Council meeting, scheduled for this morning.
Following the Fed's conciliatory announcements, and in anticipation of a more neutral tone from the ECB, the euro rallied against the dollar to trade back in the $1.09/euro zone.
At the close of its monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave its three key interest rates unchanged, at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

On the basis of its current assessment, the Council considers that 'the ECB's key interest rates are at levels which, if maintained for a sufficiently long period, will make a strong contribution to achieving' its medium-term inflation target of 2%.

It also decided to bring forward the normalization of the Eurosystem's balance sheet.

In the first half of 2024, it intends to continue the full reinvestment of principal repayments on maturing securities acquired under the PEPP.

The Board then plans to reduce the PEPP portfolio by an average of 7.5 billion euros per month in the second half of the year, and intends to end reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

As for US indicators, US retail sales rose by 0.3% sequentially in November 2023, where consensus was expecting a slight decline, following a 0.2% drop the previous month (revised from an initial estimate of -0.1%).

The Commerce Department, which publishes these figures, states that excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales rose by 0.2% last month, after remaining stable in October.
The Labor Department announces 202.000 new U.S. jobless claims for the week ending December 4, down 19,000 on the previous week's revised figure (221,000, compared with 220,000 initially announced).

The four-week moving average stood at 213,250 last week, down 7,750 on the previous week's revised average.

Finally, the number of people receiving regular benefits rose by 20.000 to 1,876,000 in the previous week, the most recent period available for this statistic.


In French company news, Atos reports that Onepoint, its reference shareholder since November 1, has increased its stake to 11.4%, and that it intends to pursue a constructive dialogue with it, as with all its shareholders.

Air France-KLM confirms its outlook for 2024-26 and sets targets for 2026-28, including a further increase in profitability with an operating margin of over 8%.

Bayer announced on Thursday the signing of a partnership with French start-up Iktos for the use of AI in the discovery and development of new crop protection products.

Finally, Dassault Systèmes and Dassault Aviation announced on Thursday that they would be deepening their collaboration, which will now include the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) of combat aircraft.

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