Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 2,65,778 2,24,510 2,27,799 3,04,800 3,19,931 2,81,175 2,64,730 2,43,441
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -12.11% -5.85% -8.04%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 1,03,071 94,792 98,515 98,769
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -8.03% 3.93% 0.26%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,68,992 2,05,754 1,59,925 1,36,180 87,257 1,21,264 1,24,876 1,09,718
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 38.97% 2.98% -12.14%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 53.34% 53.03% 52.84%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 39.98% 37.41% 35.69%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 37.73% 32.17% 31.88%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 25.81% 22.29% 21.24%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 20.15% 22% 20.05%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 78.05% 98.72% 94.36%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 12.3% 9.86% 8.94%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 33.5% 22.37% 19.05%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.88x 0.88x 0.84x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.32x 2.12x 2.22x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 15.75% 17.36% 18.05%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 29.52% 32.73% 34.15%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 78.17% 78.89% 90.02%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.9 15.63 15.9
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 14.47% -7.54% 1.74%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 4.073 5.937 5.518
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 27.31% 45.76% -7.06%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 39.89 44.51 48.83
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 28.87% 11.56% 9.72%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 12.7 10.07 9.241
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 58.3% -20.71% -8.26%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,30,44,201 1,30,44,201 1,30,15,466 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.03x 5.08x
PBR 1.28x 1.15x
EV / Sales 1.63x 1.7x
Yield 7.96% 11.6%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
51.17BRL
Average target price
57.62BRL
Spread / Average Target
+12.60%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise