While expectations are that Brookfield Corporation (TSX:BN) and EIG Global Energy Partners may well deliver a reworked takeover bid to buy Origin Energy Limited's (ASX:ORG) after shareholders rejected the $16 billion offer in a vote, it's understood that there won't be any further action before Christmas. Advisers are understood to have downed pens for now, and won't be putting anything further to the board in 2023. But should the share price fall in the new year, there's an expectation by many in the market that the suitors will be back, with the target simply too attractive to walk away from without a fight.

To succeed, there needs to be support from 75% of the shares voted. The argument from the Brookfield and EIG camp is that while the deal was rejected, the majority of investors were in favour of the transaction. AustralianSuper, which holds 17.5%, was in the minority in its opposition to the transaction.

Origin announced on November 23 that the suitors had put an alternative offer to shareholders, where if they voted against the buyout proposal, a new takeover at $9.08 per share would be on offer, on the condition that it won 50.1% shareholder approval. As part of that deal, shareholders would also vote on splitting the company. The offer would involve a return of $5.25 a share from a sale of the Energy Markets unit to Brookfield.

The remaining part of the business - Origin's stake in the Queensland's APLNG upstream energy business - would be worth $3.83 per share through the takeover bid undertaken by EIG, equating to about $6.6 billion. To get the board's ear, the bidders would probably need to lift the condition of the deal being subject to financing, clarify the cost of the tax leakage from asset sales and pay out dividends along the way, compensating shareholders for the time taken for the transaction to play out. Most importantly, the money would need to increase.

Some suggest the consortium may only need to lift its offer by about 10c-15c a share, rather than offer the same amount that was on the table for the scheme of arrangement. But all this, of course, assumes the current Origin Energy directors remain in their roles in 2024. Some may opt to move on rather than work for AustralianSuper, which can call the shots due to its dominance on the register.

And then there's the possibility of the country's super fund itself opting for a change, given its differing views on the company's value to directors. Azure Minerals It's all quiet right now on SQM's proposal to buy Azure Minerals, because the Chilean lithium powerhouse is awaiting approval to buy the business from the Foreign Investment Review Board. That's due before Christmas, say sources, when the transaction will go unconditional.