The Paris Bourse has posted a moderate +0.2% rise since the 1st of trading, and scores quickly froze, even after the publication of PMI indexes showing a slight downturn in France, but a recovery in the eurozone (none of them above 50).

The 7270Pts level serves as a pivot point, consolidating the gains made in November, one of the few months with the fewest down sessions since prices have been expressed in euros.

Volumes are downright anorexic, with less than 500MnsE traded in 5.5 hours: this is very representative of the lack of activity that prevails when the US markets are closed.
They will remain closed all day to celebrate Thanksgiving, and there will be only half a trading session tomorrow ('black friday').

The stock market could also be affected by fears of instability in the eurozone in the wake of the victory of Geert Wilder's populist, anti-EU PVV party in yesterday's parliamentary elections in the Netherlands (the leader, who is classified as "very right-wing", does not actually have a majority, and will have to build a coalition that will not allow him to "roll out his program").

The publication of the first results of the monthly purchasing managers' surveys (PMI) on private sector activity in the eurozone economies will remain the main highlight of the session (no US stat is expected before Monday).

Private sector activity contracted further in France in November, penalized by persistent weakness in demand, according to the preliminary version of the PMI index published this Thursday.

The composite 'flash' PMI index measuring overall activity compiled by HCOB thus fell to 44.5 in November, from 44.6 in October, falling into negative territory for the sixth month in a row.

The preliminary composite PMI index measuring overall activity in the eurozone, published by HCOB, recovered to 47.1 from 46.5 in October.

But Hamburg Commercial Bank points out that these data still point to a second consecutive quarter of contraction in eurozone GDP, synonymous with a technical recession in the region.

A PMI falling just below 50 points does not necessarily mean a relapse into recession, but it is a worrying signal," cautioned analysts at Oddo BHF.

Last year, after the surge in energy prices, the eurozone's composite PMI had fallen to 47.3, raising fears of a contraction in
activity", they point out.

"Six months later, the index had rebounded to 54.1 and real GDP was content to stagnate", add the private bank's economists.

In the absence of Wall Street, good news could help European equities make up for their underperformance against US markets since the start of the year, with a discount that now stands at a record 35%.

"The valuation of cyclical companies in Europe today incorporates a severe recession scenario", argue Oddo BHF's teams.

The day will also be marked by the release of the 'minutes' of the ECB's last meeting, which ended in a 'standstill' last month after ten rate hikes in a row.

On the currency markets, the dollar is struggling to launch a sustained rebound (jumping the previous day, falling back -0.1% on Thursday) after having fallen sharply in recent weeks in reaction to the Fed's more cautious approach.

The euro nibbled 0.1 against the greenback, to $1.0890, but for the time being remains down for the week as a whole.

On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries is stuck at around 4.41% (no quotes today) and the yield on the German Bund with the same maturity, which has fallen by 21 points over the past month, is back up +2.5pts to 2.569%, while our OATs are down +3.5pts to 3.1540%).

On the oil market, crude oil prices continue to show signs of heaviness following the announcement of a new rise in US reserves last week, but above all due to the postponement of the Opep+ meeting, which was scheduled for this weekend in Vienna.

Brent crude oil is down 1% at $80.9, and the ounce of gold is down -0.25% at $1993.



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