Yves Sanquer

Currencies: Inflation rears its ugly head

Markets are currently navigating a phase far more complex than a simple "risk-on/risk-off" scenario. The real issue is no longer just the war in Iran or the surge in oil prices, but rather how this energy shock is disrupting a US economy that - for now - remains surprisingly resilient.

May 18, 2026 at 07:10 pm IST

Currencies: Market begins to look beyond the oil shock

The dollar remains supported by a high interest rate environment, although the markets are gradually shifting away from a narrative that is purely dominated by the energy shock. After several weeks where oil and geopolitical risk dictated all macro flows, investors are slowly returning to economic and monetary fundamentals.

May 11, 2026 at 01:44 pm IST

Currencies: Heading towards a pivot, but lacking a decisive catalyst

The dollar is entering a more hesitant phase as the market navigates between the gradual normalization of the energy shock and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. After being bolstered by rising oil prices and the repricing of rate cut expectations, the greenback is seeing its drivers peter out, leaving it without a clear directional catalyst in the near term.

May 05, 2026 at 01:14 pm IST

Currencies: Between Easing Oil Prices and the Return of the Monetary Cycle

The dollar is entering a more fragile phase as the market begins to glimpse a potential de-escalation on the energy front. Having been bolstered for several weeks by rising oil prices and the associated inflationary shock, the greenback is gradually losing this support as tensions appear to be shifting toward a negotiation phase.

April 28, 2026 at 01:16 pm IST

Currencies: The Dollar Loses Some of Its Support

The dollar is entering a more directional phase, yet one that remains contingent on a key factor: oil. After several weeks of extreme tension linked to the Iranian conflict, the market is beginning to shift from a purely inflationary regime towards a more balanced one, where the risk of a slowdown is gradually being priced back in.

April 20, 2026 at 02:55 pm IST

Currencies: Unstable Equilibrium in an Oil-Dominated Regime

The dollar is navigating a transitional environment, caught between an oil-driven inflationary shock and a global economy that - for now - remains resilient. Unlike typical periods of market stress, the greenback is not fully capturing safe-haven flows, suggesting that markets are not yet pricing in a scenario of a global recession.

April 13, 2026 at 02:10 pm IST

Currencies: Oil-Driven Inflation

The dollar is navigating a particularly ambiguous environment, caught in a pincer movement between an oil-induced inflationary shock and the absence of a genuine flight to quality. Unlike typical periods of market stress, the greenback is not fully benefiting from its safe-haven status, suggesting that the markets are not yet pricing in a global recessionary scenario.

April 07, 2026 at 05:37 pm IST

Currencies: Markets Enter a Moment of Truth

Oil, central banks, and war: markets are no longer driven by liquidity, but rather by crude oil and geopolitics. The conflict in the Middle East and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate the equation, relegating economic data to the sidelines.

March 23, 2026 at 06:20 pm IST

Currencies: All Eyes on Hormuz

Military intervention against Iran continues to favor the dollar, which is enjoying another consecutive week of gains amid rising bond yields. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to maritime freight, the situation is unlikely to improve.

March 16, 2026 at 04:17 pm IST

Currencies: At a Crossroads

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to have consequences that go beyond a simple spike in crude prices. Yet none of the forces involved has any interest in prolonging the military intervention longer than necessary.

March 09, 2026 at 09:16 pm IST

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): The euro retreats sharply

March 02, 2026 at 10:41 pm IST

Currencies: A big mess

The end of February saw a real shift in tone. This is no longer just an equity consolidation fuelled by sector rotation. It is a test of the macro regime itself, caught between tariffs swinging back and forth, inflation edging up slightly and the geopolitical landscape which has been shaken by a major strike on Iran.

March 02, 2026 at 07:51 pm IST

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): Without a pivot, no salvation

February 23, 2026 at 06:28 pm IST

Currencies: Tariffs, Act 2

Equities are consolidating because leadership is changing. The dollar is resisting because the Fed is not pivoting (yet). The yen is hesitating because global stress is not taking hold. However, disinflation slowing and a rotation in flows point to one thing: the second leg of the cycle will be more selective, more international, and less concentrated in US mega-caps. In other words, the cycle is not reversing; it is transforming.

February 23, 2026 at 03:57 pm IST

Currencies: Tariffs, Act II

Equity markets are consolidating as leadership shifts. The dollar is holding firm because the Fed has yet to pivot. The yen is wavering as global stress fails to take root. However, slowing disinflation and rotating capital flows signal one thing: the second half of the cycle will be more selective, more international, and less concentrated on U.S. mega-caps. In other words, the cycle is not reversing; it is transforming.

February 23, 2026 at 03:47 pm IST

Currencies: a fragile calm

The macroeconomic releases of recent days have not upended the central scenario, but they have clarified the regime in which markets are now operating. We are neither in a euphoric acceleration nor tipping into recession. We are in a mid-cycle slowdown, with financial markets searching for balance. In this context, the FX market is becoming an early barometer of confidence.

February 16, 2026 at 03:01 pm IST

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): EUR/USD: Possible End to recent trend

February 02, 2026 at 07:56 pm IST

Currencies: Volatility at every level

For some, making it to the end of the month can be tough. For investors, the end of January was marked above all by heightened volatility across most asset classes: a sharp drop in precious metals, equity indices in the midst of a sector rotation and the dollar refusing to give in to panic.

February 02, 2026 at 07:37 pm IST

Currencies: Spotlight on the Japanese yen

After Donald Trump's remarks on Greenland helped equities regain altitude, investors are now focused on Japanese rates, which keep climbing even as the yen remains weak. This decoupling is unusual and needs to be watched closely.

January 26, 2026 at 07:45 pm IST

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): Caught in a Crossfire

January 21, 2026 at 02:33 pm IST

Currencies: The dollar caught between two fires

The latest US data still paints a positive macroeconomic backdrop: solid growth supported by rising productivity, the return of disinflation and an accommodative monetary stance. The main risk is not a recession, but rather a correction linked to the political volatility of a midterm-election year.

January 19, 2026 at 03:03 pm IST