The latest indicators confirm this resilience. U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter was revised to 2.1%, while consumer spending rose by another 0.7% month-over-month, well above expectations. Real consumption remains up 2.1% year-over-year, supported notably by baby boomers, whose net wealth is now approaching $89,000bn. Despite consumer confidence surveys remaining weak, the American consumer continues to drive the expansion.

The labor market still shows no signs of breaking. Weekly jobless claims remain near historic lows and household spending remains solid. At the same time, orders for core capital goods have reached a new record, illustrating the continuation of the massive investment cycle linked to artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

On the other hand, the battle against inflation is far from won. The PCE index now stands at 4.1% year-over-year, while Core PCE has reached 3.4%. Even more concerning, the Supercore inflation indicator has climbed to 3.9%, a sign that price pressures extend well beyond the impact of oil alone. The recent drop in crude should gradually provide relief to the data starting this summer, but massive investments in data centers, electrical infrastructure, and networks continue to fuel production costs.

Bond markets, however, are beginning to glimpse an improvement. Inflation expectations from the University of Michigan have declined slightly to 4.6% for the one-year outlook and 3.3% for the five-year, while the probability of a Fed rate hike has decreased modestly. Investors nevertheless remain cautious: such robust growth makes rapid monetary easing unlikely.

The central scenario therefore remains that of a soft landing: a U.S. economy that slows slightly but continues to grow, inflation that gradually recedes without disappearing completely, and markets that progressively broaden their leadership beyond just technology stocks. The primary risk remains that of service inflation being persistent enough to further delay future Fed rate cuts.

In the meantime, the dollar (DXY) is benefiting and has just broken out to the upside from a year-long congestion zone, clearing the path for a continued rise toward 102.70/85 or even 104.05/60. Initial support is located at 100.20. In tandem, the euro has also broken below 1.1415, pointing toward a continued decline toward 1.1180/30.