Projected Income Statement: China Railway Group Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China Railway Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 75,286 1,33,014 1,50,639 2,33,813 2,62,832 3,05,677 3,36,137 3,56,288
Change - 76.68% 13.25% 55.21% 12.41% 16.3% 9.96% 5.99%
Announcement Date 30/03/21 30/03/22 30/03/23 28/03/24 28/03/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China Railway Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 43,291 65,542 59,744 56,892 55,384 53,623 50,318 50,434
Change - 51.4% -8.85% -4.77% -2.65% -3.18% -6.16% 0.23%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -12,297 -52,473 -16,192 -36,276 -27,333 -42,747 12,042 11,810
Change - -326.72% 69.14% -124.03% 24.65% -56.39% 128.17% -1.92%
Announcement Date 30/03/21 30/03/22 30/03/23 28/03/24 28/03/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China Railway Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.78% 4.54% 4.7% 4.81% 5.05% 5.07% 5.29% 5.39%
EBIT Margin (%) 3.68% 3.53% 3.7% 3.73% 3.72% 3.11% 3.23% 3.29%
EBT Margin (%) 3.65% 3.69% 3.87% 3.77% 3.5% 3.11% 3.22% 3.3%
Net margin (%) 2.58% 2.57% 2.71% 2.65% 2.4% 2.25% 2.31% 2.33%
FCF margin (%) -1.26% -4.89% -1.4% -2.87% -2.36% -3.75% 1.04% 1%
FCF / Net Income (%) -48.82% -190% -51.77% -108.34% -98.01% -166.3% 44.99% 42.73%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.23% 2.2% 2.1% 1.95% 1.36% 1.09% 1.19% 1.17%
ROE 10.57% 10.4% 12.13% 10.57% 9.09% 6.88% 6.68% 6.53%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.61x 2.73x 2.78x 3.85x 4.48x 5.11x 5.21x 5.2x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.12x -2.53x -9.3x -6.45x -9.62x -7.15x 27.91x 30.17x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.44% 6.11% 5.18% 4.5% 4.77% 4.7% 4.34% 4.25%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 92.85% 134.39% 110.23% 93.68% 94.43% 89.62% 77.97% 73.66%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -352.05% -124.91% -368.97% -156.83% -202.63% -125.44% 417.87% 427.03%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.261 0.5319 1.76 1.55 1.134 1.995 2.356 2.424
Change - -57.83% 230.79% -11.91% -26.85% 75.96% 18.1% 2.89%
Dividend per Share 1 0.18 0.196 0.2 0.21 0.178 0.1659 0.1883 0.1975
Change - 8.89% 2.04% 5% -15.24% -6.8% 13.53% 4.88%
Book Value Per Share 1 8.49 11.2 10.33 13.43 14.34 15.22 16.15 17.09
Change - 31.96% -7.82% 30.09% 6.71% 6.18% 6.07% 5.81%
EPS 1 0.963 1.037 1.198 1.292 1.084 1.037 1.084 1.127
Change - 7.68% 15.53% 7.85% -16.1% -4.3% 4.5% 3.94%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,45,70,929 2,45,70,929 2,47,52,196 2,47,52,196 2,47,41,865 2,46,64,775 2,46,64,775 2,46,64,775
Announcement Date 30/03/21 30/03/22 30/03/23 28/03/24 28/03/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 5.73x 5.48x
PBR 0.39x 0.37x
EV / Sales 0.39x 0.4x
Yield 2.79% 3.17%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
B
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
5.940CNY
Average target price
7.402CNY
Spread / Average Target
+24.61%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. 601390 Stock
  4. Financials China Railway Group Limited
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