Financials China Railway Group Limited

Equities

601390

CNE100000866

Construction & Engineering

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 30/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
6.57 ^CNY	-4.09%		-7.46%	+15.67%

01/05	Traffic Control Technology's Unit Signs 150 Million Yuan Railway Equipment Installation Deal	MT
29/04	China Railway Group Limited Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,39,050	1,19,432	1,32,027	1,29,563	1,29,985	1,49,726	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	2,04,993	1,84,721	2,47,724	2,80,201	3,15,647	4,08,733	4,23,120	4,23,650
P/E ratio	6.25 x	5.47 x	5.58 x	4.64 x	4.4 x	4.47 x	4.04 x	3.88 x
Yield	2.85%	3.42%	3.39%	3.6%	3.7%	3.75%	4.06%	4.41%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.16 x	0.12 x	0.12 x	0.11 x	0.1 x	0.11 x	0.11 x	0.1 x
EV / Revenue	0.24 x	0.19 x	0.23 x	0.24 x	0.25 x	0.31 x	0.3 x	0.28 x
EV / EBITDA	4.91 x	4.3 x	5.1 x	5.25 x	5.45 x	6.01 x	5.72 x	5.37 x
EV / FCF	-11.4 x	-17.4 x	-6.1 x	-17.3 x	-17.4 x	23.5 x	19.7 x	-207 x
FCF Yield	-8.77%	-5.75%	-16.4%	-5.78%	-5.75%	4.26%	5.08%	-0.48%
Price to Book	0.77 x	0.62 x	0.52 x	0.54 x	-	0.45 x	0.41 x	0.38 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,45,70,929	2,45,70,929	2,45,70,929	2,47,52,196	2,47,52,196	2,47,50,630	-	-
Reference price ²	5.940	5.270	5.790	5.560	5.680	6.570	6.570	6.570
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	8,48,440	9,71,405	10,70,417	11,51,501	12,60,841	13,32,383	14,05,505	15,01,773
EBITDA ¹	41,709	42,926	48,559	53,324	57,962	68,041	73,968	78,876
EBIT ¹	31,882	33,578	38,782	43,049	46,282	52,858	57,980	60,761
Operating Margin	3.76%	3.46%	3.62%	3.74%	3.67%	3.97%	4.13%	4.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	31,332	33,383	37,586	42,583	46,070	51,429	56,395	61,262
Net income ¹	23,678	25,188	27,618	31,276	33,483	37,250	40,240	43,662
Net margin	2.79%	2.59%	2.58%	2.72%	2.66%	2.8%	2.86%	2.91%
EPS ²	0.9500	0.9630	1.037	1.198	1.292	1.469	1.628	1.692
Free Cash Flow ¹	-17,981	-10,627	-40,643	-16,192	-18,154	17,424	21,511	-2,047
FCF margin	-2.12%	-1.09%	-3.8%	-1.41%	-1.44%	1.31%	1.53%	-0.14%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	25.61%	29.08%	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	-	-	46.78%	53.46%	-
Dividend per Share ²	0.1690	0.1800	0.1960	0.2000	0.2100	0.2464	0.2670	0.2897
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4
Net sales	4,88,956	4,16,303	5,58,429	4,98,227	3,02,492	5,75,045	2,66,537	2,92,867	5,59,405	2,88,780	3,03,316	2,71,974	3,17,499	-	-
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	-	-	19,751	18,205	11,318	19,640	10,203	10,789	20,992	9,521	12,535	10,751	11,546	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	3.54%	3.65%	3.74%	3.42%	3.83%	3.68%	3.75%	3.3%	4.13%	3.95%	3.64%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	19,514	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	-	-	13,491	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	2.42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ¹	-	-	-	-	0.3100	-	0.2940	0.2600	-	0.3200	0.3300	0.3050	0.3000	0.3080	0.3800
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	30/03/20	28/08/20	30/03/21	30/08/21	30/03/22	30/03/22	30/04/22	30/08/22	30/08/22	28/10/22	30/03/23	28/04/23	30/08/23	30/10/23	28/03/24

¹CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	65,943	65,289	1,15,697	1,50,639	1,85,662	2,59,007	2,73,394	2,73,924
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.581 x	1.521 x	2.383 x	2.825 x	3.203 x	3.807 x	3.696 x	3.473 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-17,981	-10,627	-40,643	-16,192	-18,154	17,424	21,511	-2,047
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.5%	11.9%	10.4%	12.1%	11.8%	10.4%	10.6%	10.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.37%	2.23%	2.2%	2.1%	1.95%	2.05%	2.17%	2.14%
Assets ¹	9,99,264	11,27,980	12,55,346	14,87,412	17,21,214	18,21,516	18,54,648	20,45,059
Book Value Per Share ²	7.730	8.490	11.20	10.30	-	14.70	16.00	17.20
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.9000	1.260	0.5300	1.760	1.550	2.260	3.040	2.920
Capex ¹	18,258	41,622	53,713	59,744	56,518	63,258	71,059	66,702
Capex / Sales	2.15%	4.28%	5.02%	5.19%	4.48%	4.75%	5.06%	4.44%
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Railway Group Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

6.57 CNY

Average target price

9.364 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+42.53%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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