Projected Income Statement: China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 27,728 25,850 23,977 21,538 23,032 20,762 18,375 14,980
Change - -6.77% -7.25% -10.17% 6.94% -9.86% -11.5% -18.48%
Announcement Date 30/03/22 31/03/23 28/03/24 31/03/25 31/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,834 1,514 1,873 1,478 1,141 1,247 1,601 1,533
Change - -17.45% 23.71% -21.09% -22.8% 9.31% 28.37% -4.25%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 6,951 7,267 5,365 7,069 8,331 8,407 8,376 8,651
Change - 4.55% -26.17% 31.76% 17.85% 0.91% -0.37% 3.28%
Announcement Date 30/03/22 31/03/23 28/03/24 31/03/25 31/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 59.69% 46.15% 56.19% 61.05% 56.62% 57.23% 56.59% 56.67%
EBIT Margin (%) 40.4% 27.24% 36.95% 42.93% 39.51% 40.17% 40.48% 41.66%
EBT Margin (%) 89.67% 80.31% 74.54% 86.79% 67.96% 72.38% 71.54% 69.96%
Net margin (%) 68.73% 62.02% 54.28% 66.87% 48.35% 53.61% 52.95% 52.3%
FCF margin (%) 58.66% 57.93% 46.73% 59.69% 62.39% 60.08% 57.11% 55.63%
FCF / Net Income (%) 85.35% 93.39% 86.07% 89.27% 129.02% 112.07% 107.86% 106.37%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.67% 4.44% 3.62% 4.63% 3.72% 4.24% 4.26% 4.4%
ROE 8.2% 7.49% 6.03% 7.58% 5.99% 6.7% 6.69% 6.87%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 3.92x 4.46x 3.72x 2.98x 3.05x 2.59x 2.21x 1.7x
Debt / Free cash flow 3.99x 3.56x 4.47x 3.05x 2.76x 2.47x 2.19x 1.73x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 15.48% 12.07% 16.31% 12.48% 8.54% 8.91% 10.92% 9.86%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 25.93% 26.15% 29.03% 20.45% 15.09% 15.57% 19.29% 17.39%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 26.38% 20.83% 34.91% 20.91% 13.7% 14.84% 19.11% 17.72%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.372 2.274 1.779 2.036 2.256 1.879 1.963 -
Change - -4.12% -21.77% 14.43% 10.82% -16.72% 4.47% -
Dividend per Share 1 0.94 0.82 0.7 0.886 0.739 0.8472 0.8741 0.9128
Change - -12.77% -14.63% 26.57% -16.59% 14.64% 3.18% 4.43%
Book Value Per Share 1 27.61 25.78 24.59 25.09 26.3 27.11 28.1 29.18
Change - -6.61% -4.64% 2.07% 4.8% 3.07% 3.66% 3.84%
EPS 1 2.199 2.015 1.532 1.886 1.538 1.79 1.847 1.983
Change - -8.35% -23.97% 23.09% -18.45% 16.36% 3.19% 7.36%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 37,85,620 40,03,383 41,98,009 41,98,009 41,98,009 41,98,009 41,98,009 41,98,009
Announcement Date 30/03/22 31/03/23 28/03/24 31/03/25 31/03/26 - - -
1HKD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 7.36x 7.14x
PBR 0.49x 0.47x
EV / Sales 5.44x 5.03x
Yield 6.43% 6.63%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
13.18HKD
Average target price
16.64HKD
Spread / Average Target
+26.23%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  4. Financials China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited