And the CAC40 is back above 7,200: the Paris stock market erases Friday's losses, driven in particular by Worldline, Vinci and L'Oréal (+2.5% to +3%).
Volumes remain thin, however (barely 1.5 billion euros traded in 8 hours), but buyers are firmly in the driver's seat against sellers who have been completely absent since 3:30 p.m., ahead of the publication of the January CPI (inflation) figures in the US.
The US indices, which had made a cautious start to the session, gained +0.9% after 90 minutes of trading, which helped our European indices, with the E-Stoxx50 at +1% and Amsterdam at +1.3%.

A moderate rise in prices would confirm the advent of a "Goldylocks" scenario in the USA, as the threat of a winter recession now seems to have been averted, thanks to falling energy prices and the prospect of a reopening Chinese economy.

While experts do not entirely agree on the assessment of the risks of a global economic relapse, the worst-case scenario is no longer their preferred hypothesis.

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' star economist, attributes only a 35% probability to a US recession this year (compared with over 60% 6 months ago).

Indeed, the latest US employment report has reinforced the prospect of a "soft landing" for the economy, a scenario characterized by disinflation, low unemployment and the absence of recession.

"It looks like 2023 could be a year of sluggish growth, but no recession", says Steven Bell, chief economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments for the EMEA region.

This reassuring picture does, however, contain a grey area: if the global economy holds up, this could prompt the major central banks to continue their monetary tightening, or even accelerate it.

In these conditions, investors will be paying close attention to the statistics expected this week in Europe, with a new estimate of the eurozone's fourth-quarter GDP.

The European Commission will also present its winter economic forecasts, updating its projections for GDP and inflation.
On the bond front, scores appear to be frozen at Friday's level in the Eurozone (OATs stable, Bunds +0.5Pts, BTPs -2.5Pts), with US T-Bonds easing by -3Pts to 3.713%.

The Euro/Dollar parity also appears to have frozen at 1.0680... on the other hand, the Yen falls from -1 to -1.1% against all currencies: this is the FOREX "fact of the day".

In company news, Orpea (-15% to 3.1E after +38% around 9:15 a.m.) announces sales growth of 8.9% for fiscal year 2022, including +5.5% organic growth, leading to a total of 4.68 billion euros, in line with the figure presented on November 15 as part of its restructuring plan.

Renault Group and Nissan announce that they are renewing their commitment to India, by increasing production and R&D activities, electrifying their product ranges, and switching to carbon-neutral industrial manufacturing.

Finally, Sanofi announces that Dr John Reed, Global Head of Research and Development (R&D), will be leaving the company to pursue an opportunity outside Sanofi. The Group adds that it has begun the internal and external search process for Dr. Reed's successor, and that Dr. Dietmar Berger has agreed to act as interim head of the R&D organization.

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