(Updates with Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Goldman Sachs UK GDP forecast and December U.S. CPI data) Jan 12 (Reuters) - Global growth will likely slow this year but a dovish tilt in the Federal Reserve's stance has raised hopes for the U.S. economy and brightened the outlook for riskier assets, according to big banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England sticking to their higher-for-longer rates stance, however, has blurred expectations for Europe. Following are forecasts from some major banks and peers on economic growth, inflation, Fed policy and how they expect certain assets classes to perform. Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA AREA Goldman 2.6% 2.1% 4.8% 0.9% 0.5% 6.3% Sachs Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4% Stanley UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2% Wealth Management Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2% 2.2% 1.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 5.7% J.P.Morgan BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 5.7% Global Research 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0% Deutsche Bank Citigroup 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.2% -0.3% 5.7% ---- U.S. inflation and Fed forecasts: Latest data showed that in the 12 months through December, U.S. consumer prices edged 3.4% higher after increasing 3.1% in November, tempering expectations of an interest rate cut in March. The pace of price rises, however, slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%. The central bank's main rate currently stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range after 525 basis points of hike since March 2022. Rate cuts are seen coming as early as March. U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec '24) Headline CPI Core PCE Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.50% 4%-4.25% Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375% UBS Global 4.50%-4.75% Wealth Management Wells Fargo 2.80% 2.60% 4.50%-4.75% Investment Institute Barclays 2.70% 4.5%-4.75% J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4%-4.25% BofA Global 2.80% 4.25%-4.50% Research Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63% Citigroup 2.60% 4.50% ----- Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds: S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C target yield NY target Goldman Sachs 5,100 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15 Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5 UBS Global 4,700 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00 Wealth Management Wells Fargo 4,800-5, 4.25%-4.75 1.08-1.1 136-140 Investment 000 % 2 Institute Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20 J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15 BofA Global 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90 Research 5,000 Deutsche Bank 4.10% 1.10 135 5,100 Societe 3.75% 1.15 Generale 4,750 Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25 5,100 HSBC 5,000 As of 1130 GMT on Jan. 12, 2024: S&P 500: 4780.24 US 10-year yield: 3.9842% EUR/USD: 1.0953 USD/CNY: 7.1675 USD/JPY: 145.19 (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)
Delayed 02:29:59 01/06/2024 am IST | 5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
1.084 USD | +0.13% | +0.31% | -1.72% |
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31/05 | Business Lookahead: Cool jobs at last | RE |
Stocks mentioned in the article
Price
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Change
|
5d. change
|
Capi.
| ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5,278 PTS | +0.80% | -0.51% | - | ||
2,772 PTS | +1.70% | +0.64% | - | ||
220 GBX | +0.66% | +1.78% | 41.69B | ||
157.3 JPY | 0.00% | +0.20% | - | ||
97.84 USD | +0.63% | -1.14% | 159B | ||
62.31 USD | +0.61% | -2.00% | 119B | ||
59.92 USD | +1.20% | -0.48% | 209B | ||
15.23 EUR | -1.32% | -3.17% | 32.42B | ||
7.241 CNY | +0.00% | +0.00% | - | ||
1.274 USD | 0.00% | +0.38% | - | ||
1.084 USD | +0.13% | +0.31% | - | ||
0.9221 EUR | -0.13% | -0.30% | - | ||
0.7333 USD | +0.36% | +0.71% | - | ||
0.6652 USD | 0.00% | +0.79% | - | ||
0.6142 USD | 0.00% | +0.75% | - | ||
0.0406 USD | +0.35% | -2.33% | - | ||
0.012 USD | -0.14% | -.--% | - | ||
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