Financials Origin Energy Limited OTC Markets

Equities

OGFGY

US68618R2004

Electric Utilities

Market Closed - OTC Markets Other stock markets 12:30:42 01/06/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
6.7 ^USD	+3.88%		+3.88%	+22.71%

23/05	Closure of Origin Energy Coal-Fired Power Station Eraring Extended by Two Years	MT
08/05	Jarden Adjusts Origin Energy Price Target to AU$10.24 from AU$10.00, Keeps at Overweight	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	12,870	10,285	7,942	9,869	14,477	17,553	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	18,920	15,897	12,581	12,707	17,354	20,610	20,158	19,746
P/E ratio	10.6 x	124 x	-3.46 x	-7.03 x	13.7 x	12.2 x	11.1 x	14 x
Yield	3.42%	4.28%	4.43%	5.06%	4.34%	5.32%	5.67%	4.86%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.87 x	0.78 x	0.66 x	0.68 x	0.88 x	1.09 x	1.07 x	1.08 x
EV / Revenue	1.28 x	1.21 x	1.04 x	0.88 x	1.05 x	1.28 x	1.23 x	1.22 x
EV / EBITDA	5.85 x	5.06 x	6.14 x	6.01 x	5.59 x	5.55 x	5.41 x	6.1 x
EV / FCF	16.7 x	24 x	15 x	34.4 x	-13.2 x	20.8 x	9.94 x	11.6 x
FCF Yield	6%	4.16%	6.68%	2.9%	-7.57%	4.81%	10.1%	8.59%
Price to Book	0.98 x	0.81 x	0.81 x	0.98 x	1.63 x	1.86 x	1.75 x	1.69 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	17,60,668	17,61,128	17,60,921	17,22,303	17,21,367	17,22,603	-	-
Reference price ²	7.310	5.840	4.510	5.730	8.410	10.19	10.19	10.19
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	14,727	13,157	12,097	14,461	16,481	16,136	16,409	16,178
EBITDA ¹	3,232	3,141	2,048	2,114	3,107	3,716	3,727	3,239
EBIT ¹	1,308	1,329	540	527	1,417	2,112	2,093	1,665
Operating Margin	8.88%	10.1%	4.46%	3.64%	8.6%	13.09%	12.75%	10.29%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,278	179	-1,846	-874	1,478	1,888	1,832	1,322
Net income ¹	1,211	83	-2,291	-1,429	1,055	1,491	1,612	1,345
Net margin	8.22%	0.63%	-18.94%	-9.88%	6.4%	9.24%	9.83%	8.31%
EPS ²	0.6870	0.0470	-1.302	-0.8150	0.6130	0.8354	0.9173	0.7256
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,135	661	840	369	-1,313	992.2	2,029	1,695
FCF margin	7.71%	5.02%	6.94%	2.55%	-7.97%	6.15%	12.36%	10.48%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	35.12%	21.04%	41.02%	17.46%	-	26.7%	54.43%	52.34%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	93.72%	796.39%	-	-	-	66.53%	125.83%	126.04%
Dividend per Share ²	0.2500	0.2500	0.2000	0.2900	0.3650	0.5419	0.5778	0.4956
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: June	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1
Net sales	6,728	6,068	6,029	-	7,950	-	7,721	-
EBITDA ¹	1,590	1,154	-	1,099	1,015	1,059	2,048	1,995
EBIT ¹	665	-	142	-	239	243	1,174	1,231
Operating Margin	9.88%	-	2.36%	-	3.01%	-	15.21%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	697	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	599	13	-	-131	-1,298	399	-	995
Net margin	8.9%	0.21%	-	-	-16.33%	-	-	-
EPS ²	0.3400	0.007000	-	-	-	-	-	0.5750
Dividend per Share ²	0.1500	0.1250	-	0.1250	-	0.1650	0.2000	0.2750
Announcement Date	19/02/20	17/02/21	18/08/21	16/02/22	17/08/22	15/02/23	16/08/23	14/02/24

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	6,050	5,612	4,639	2,838	2,877	3,056	2,604	2,193
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.872 x	1.787 x	2.265 x	1.342 x	0.926 x	0.8225 x	0.6987 x	0.6771 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,135	661	840	369	-1,313	992	2,029	1,695
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.25%	7.93%	2.83%	4.18%	7.91%	13.6%	15.7%	11.9%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.11%	4.02%	1.38%	1.8%	3.48%	7.85%	9.08%	7.18%
Assets ¹	29,450	2,062	-1,66,135	-79,575	30,342	19,007	17,754	18,745
Book Value Per Share ²	7.460	7.210	5.550	5.820	5.170	5.480	5.840	6.030
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.7500	0.5400	0.5500	0.3000	-0.3700	0.6400	0.9200	0.8700
Capex ¹	405	665	500	728	680	653	668	473
Capex / Sales	2.75%	5.05%	4.13%	5.03%	4.13%	4.04%	4.07%	2.92%
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Origin Energy Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

10.19 AUD

Average target price

9.943 AUD

Spread / Average Target

-2.42%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Electric Utilities

	1st Jan change	Capi.
NEXTERA ENERGY	+31.81%	164B
SOUTHERN COMPANY	+14.29%	87.63B
IBERDROLA, S.A.	+1.94%	82.56B
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION	+6.73%	79.93B
ENEL S.P.A.	-1.10%	73.31B
CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORPORATION	+86.00%	68.48B
GE VERNOVA INC.	-.--%	48.21B
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC.	+11.07%	47.57B
DOMINION ENERGY, INC.	+14.72%	45.2B

Other Electric Utilities