ECOPETROL S.A. |
End-of-day quote
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 2,260 COP | +0.22% |
|
-1.74% | -3.42% |
| 29/04 | Ecopetrol S.A. Announces Management Changes | CI |
| 23/04 | Colombia predicts $10 billion in foreign investment from Europe this year-minister | RE |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 13,63,01,843 | 9,23,06,980 | 11,06,03,909 | 9,95,02,401 | 9,62,13,066 | 9,29,23,730 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 16,58,41,206 | 13,17,60,980 | 18,94,87,781 | 19,80,74,055 | 9,62,13,066 | 17,73,53,351 | 17,47,08,378 | 16,72,11,572 |
| P/E ratio | 10.3 x | 58.2 x | 6.63 x | 3.15 x | - | 4.45 x | 4.01 x | 3.98 x |
| Yield | 5.43% | 0.76% | 9.03% | 20.1% | - | 14.2% | 14.3% | 16.8% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.92 x | 1.85 x | 1.21 x | 0.62 x | 0.67 x | 0.68 x | 0.69 x | 0.71 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.34 x | 2.63 x | 2.07 x | 1.24 x | 0.67 x | 1.3 x | 1.31 x | 1.28 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.33 x | 7.82 x | 4.52 x | 2.63 x | 1.58 x | 3.06 x | 3.1 x | 3.11 x |
| EV / FCF | 11.9 x | -71.6 x | 19.6 x | 12.8 x | - | 8.1 x | 6.85 x | 7.21 x |
| FCF Yield | 8.38% | -1.4% | 5.11% | 7.83% | - | 12.3% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Price to Book | - | - | 1.54 x | 1.15 x | - | 0.99 x | - | - |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 4,11,16,695 | 4,11,16,695 | 4,11,16,695 | 4,11,16,695 | 4,11,16,695 | 4,11,16,695 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 3,315 | 2,245 | 2,690 | 2,420 | 2,340 | 2,260 | 2,260 | 2,260 |
| Announcement Date | 26/02/20 | 23/02/21 | 01/03/22 | 28/02/23 | 29/02/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 7,08,46,769 | 5,00,27,000 | 9,17,44,000 | 15,94,74,000 | 14,30,79,000 | 13,59,70,805 | 13,37,64,182 | 13,08,75,624 |
| EBITDA 1 | 3,11,08,000 | 1,68,40,000 | 4,19,67,000 | 7,52,44,000 | 6,07,18,000 | 5,79,52,635 | 5,62,93,361 | 5,37,68,977 |
| EBIT 1 | 2,21,63,000 | 76,33,000 | 2,95,94,000 | 6,03,81,000 | 4,37,46,000 | 4,46,57,520 | 4,20,77,244 | 3,89,44,841 |
| Operating Margin | 31.28% | 15.26% | 32.26% | 37.86% | 30.57% | 32.84% | 31.46% | 29.76% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 1,90,99,000 | 47,10,000 | 2,63,22,000 | 5,40,26,000 | 3,67,88,000 | 3,55,30,427 | 3,84,13,441 | 4,14,67,508 |
| Net income 1 | 1,32,51,000 | 16,88,000 | 1,66,95,000 | 3,34,06,000 | 1,90,62,000 | 1,60,03,436 | 1,59,85,374 | 1,44,63,161 |
| Net margin | 18.7% | 3.37% | 18.2% | 20.95% | 13.32% | 11.77% | 11.95% | 11.05% |
| EPS 2 | 322.3 | 38.60 | 406.0 | 768.7 | - | 507.5 | 564.0 | 567.4 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 1,39,00,915 | -18,39,000 | 96,85,405 | 1,55,04,000 | - | 2,18,89,759 | 2,55,07,448 | 2,31,91,061 |
| FCF margin | 19.62% | -3.68% | 10.56% | 9.72% | - | 16.1% | 19.07% | 17.72% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 44.69% | - | 23.08% | 20.6% | - | 37.77% | 45.31% | 43.13% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 104.9% | - | 58.01% | 46.41% | - | 136.78% | 159.57% | 160.35% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 180.0 | 17.00 | 243.0 | 487.0 | - | 321.3 | 322.4 | 379.5 |
| Announcement Date | 26/02/20 | 23/02/21 | 01/03/22 | 28/02/23 | 29/02/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,33,33,000 | 3,17,61,000 | 3,24,73,000 | 4,38,85,000 | 4,34,38,336 | 3,96,78,000 | 3,88,53,579 | 3,43,00,183 | 3,51,30,000 | 3,47,94,000 | 3,29,98,712 | 3,45,50,055 | 3,48,17,033 | 3,42,60,872 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,03,71,000 | 1,39,81,000 | 1,58,96,000 | 2,22,11,000 | 2,11,42,000 | 1,59,96,000 | 1,78,42,000 | 1,45,85,000 | 1,60,38,000 | 1,22,51,000 | 1,35,17,357 | 1,40,52,000 | 1,49,09,000 | 1,40,14,000 |
| EBIT 1 | 71,04,000 | 1,04,23,000 | 1,25,30,000 | 1,86,08,000 | 1,72,22,000 | 1,20,16,000 | 1,37,21,000 | 1,04,99,000 | 1,18,16,000 | 77,00,000 | 1,06,72,248 | 1,13,33,016 | 1,14,59,990 | 1,03,18,615 |
| Operating Margin | 30.45% | 32.82% | 38.59% | 42.4% | 39.65% | 30.28% | 35.31% | 30.61% | 33.64% | 22.13% | 32.34% | 32.8% | 32.91% | 30.12% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 65,18,000 | 91,06,000 | - | - | 1,55,87,000 | 1,03,77,000 | 1,25,57,000 | - | - | 43,26,000 | 90,42,000 | 93,63,000 | 1,06,02,000 | 94,21,000 |
| Net income 1 | 38,07,000 | 60,77,000 | 65,73,000 | 1,04,70,000 | 95,13,000 | 68,51,000 | 56,60,000 | 40,87,000 | 50,86,000 | 42,28,000 | 48,97,255 | 50,11,485 | 54,16,156 | 49,72,243 |
| Net margin | 16.32% | 19.13% | 20.24% | 23.86% | 21.9% | 17.27% | 14.57% | 11.92% | 14.48% | 12.15% | 14.84% | 14.5% | 15.56% | 14.51% |
| EPS 2 | 92.60 | 147.8 | - | 254.6 | 231.4 | 122.8 | 137.7 | 99.40 | 123.7 | - | 119.7 | 127.4 | 133.7 | 120.3 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 09/11/21 | 01/03/22 | 11/05/22 | 03/08/22 | 08/11/22 | 28/02/23 | 10/05/23 | 08/08/23 | 07/11/23 | 29/02/24 | - | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 2,95,39,363 | 3,94,54,000 | 7,88,83,872 | 9,85,71,654 | - | 8,44,29,621 | 8,17,84,648 | 7,42,87,842 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.9496 x | 2.343 x | 1.88 x | 1.31 x | - | 1.457 x | 1.453 x | 1.382 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 1,39,00,915 | -18,39,000 | 96,85,405 | 1,55,04,000 | - | 2,18,89,759 | 2,55,07,449 | 2,31,91,061 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 24.2% | 3.11% | 27% | 43.2% | - | 22.9% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 10.3% | 1.23% | 8.7% | 12.3% | - | 7.93% | 8.41% | 8.24% |
| Assets 1 | 12,92,62,159 | 13,74,36,900 | 19,18,37,016 | 27,26,08,575 | - | 20,17,57,890 | 19,00,75,785 | 17,55,02,505 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | - | - | 1,745 | 2,095 | - | 2,285 | - | - |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 674.0 | 223.0 | 548.0 | 881.0 | - | 1,764 | - | - |
| Capex 1 | 1,38,10,852 | 1,10,26,000 | 1,28,50,616 | 2,07,31,000 | - | 2,21,42,497 | 2,14,07,510 | 1,98,58,581 |
| Capex / Sales | 19.49% | 22.04% | 14.01% | 13% | - | 16.28% | 16% | 15.17% |
| Announcement Date | 26/02/20 | 23/02/21 | 01/03/22 | 28/02/23 | 29/02/24 | - | - | - |
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
2,260
COP
Average target price
2,633
COP
Spread / Average Target
+16.50%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.42% | 23.79B | |
| +7.43% | 295B | |
| +5.31% | 143B | |
| +51.08% | 128B | |
| +17.61% | 79.7B | |
| +7.50% | 74.72B | |
| +19.90% | 63B | |
| +7.84% | 57.08B | |
| +10.20% | 48.78B | |
| +29.93% | 35.94B |
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