(new: share price development, statements from investor conference)

BONN (dpa-AFX) - Deutsche Post has achieved another record year in 2022. But 2023 and also the following years are likely to be weaker for the time being, the DAX-listed group announced in Bonn on Thursday. Outgoing CEO Frank Appel even curbed his medium-term business forecast: an operating profit of more than 8 billion euros, as in 2022, is not in sight again until 2025. Thanks to the good business from the previous year, however, the Group is raising its dividend and expanding its share buyback program.

Following more confident statements by the Board of Management, the Post share turned into profit and was one of the biggest winners on the Dax at lunchtime, gaining just under one percent.

Last year, Deutsche Post achieved the management's forecast operating earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) of 8.4 billion euros thanks to strong international business. Compared with the previous year, this represented an increase of almost six percent.

Now, however, business momentum is likely to weaken for the time being - how much, according to the Management Board, will depend on overall economic developments. In the medium term, the Group aims to return to the record level of 2022, although this may take longer than previously planned.

Operating profit is not expected to exceed 8 billion euros again until the middle of the decade. This postpones the recovery of business further into the future after an expected dip in the coming months. Previously, management had assumed that Deutsche Post would earn more than 8.5 billion euros in day-to-day business as early as 2024. Analysts had previously expressed skepticism in this regard and now criticized the expectations of the Board of Management.

The forecast is not very encouraging, wrote analyst Alex Irving from analyst firm Bernstein. He suspects that the adjustment of medium-term targets is eating away at investor confidence.

January was weak because of the Chinese New Year holiday, said Tobias Meyer, who will move to the top post after the annual shareholders' meeting in May. However, he added that February and March were encouraging, with shipment volumes picking up, especially in the European parcel business.

In addition, the five-cent increase in the dividend to 1.85 euros per share, along with the expanded share buyback, apparently put investors in a lenient mood. By the end of 2024, Swiss Post now plans to buy back shares worth three billion euros, one and a half times as much as previously estimated.

In recent years, Swiss Post had benefited in particular from high prices for air and sea transport. In addition, booming online trade due to the pandemic also boosted the logistics group's overland business. This year, however, business is likely to cool down.

As a result, operating profit is expected to reach only 6 to 7 billion euros in 2023, depending on whether and how quickly the economy recovers. The worst case scenario occurs if there is no significant recovery in the global economy. Swiss Post aims to reach the upper end of the range if the global economy recovers in the middle of the year. If the recovery only starts towards the end of the year, the expectation is in the middle of the range. Free cash flow is nevertheless expected to be around 3 billion euros, the same level as in 2022, which surprised analysts positively.

Swiss Post already felt the impact of the weakening business in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, it achieved new record figures for the year as a whole: revenue rose by more than 15 percent to over 94 billion euros. At the bottom line, Swiss Post earned just under 5.4 billion euros - six percent more than in the previous year and more than analysts had expected.

In day-to-day business, the Group was helped in particular by the international DHL divisions. These include the express business with time-critical shipments (DHL Express), international air and sea freight and the European overland freight forwarding business (DHL Global Forwarding, Freight). Supply chain logistics (DHL Supply Chain) and the parcel business outside Germany, primarily for online retailing (E-Commerce Solutions), are also included.

The operating profit of these segments rose by almost 15 percent year-on-year to 7.6 billion euros, performing slightly better than expected by the Board of Management around CEO Appel. By contrast, the company's core business performed less well. In domestic mail and parcel delivery, operating profit slumped by more than 27 percent to 1.27 billion euros. The company had expected 1.35 billion euros. In addition to lower mail volumes, the decline was also due to increased costs that Swiss Post was unable to pass on to customers.

Business in the domestic market will also come under the spotlight on Thursday due to possible further strikes. The Verdi trade union plans to announce the results of its strike ballot at the Bonn-based logistics company during the course of the day. It could then call an indefinite strike if three quarters of the postal employees surveyed rejected their employer's collective bargaining offer./lew/stw/jha/