The first estimate for end-2016 GDP growth proved disappointing in the US. After a bounce in Q3 (+3.5%, quarterly annualised rate), activity slowed to 1.9%in Q4. On top of that, 1 point of growth was due to surging inventories, meaning that final demand grew by just 0.9%. Still, details are more encouraging, as the main negative contribution came from international trade: after a surge in Q3, exports decreased while imports gained 8.2%. Final domestic demand actually accelerated, up 2.7% in Q4, after 2.1% in Q3, with strong demand from households and a rebound in business spending on equipment and software.
2016 as a whole marked a slowdown.The average annual growth stands at 1.6%, the second weakest performance since the US emerged from the Great Recession. In nominal terms, 2016 was the worst year. This is quite conflicting with the apparent strength of the labour market. In December 2016, the unemployment rate was as low as 4.7%,as close to 2.5 million jobs have been created. How come employment can be dynamic in a soft economy? Answering that question is long and complex while not always consensual. What is unquestionable is that 2016 saw Corporate America spending cutting on investment while hiring: less capital and more labour. This is clearly the recipe for actual and projected productivity.
Consequences are clear but how about causes? Well, it might be interesting to think in terms of relative prices, having in mind how weak real wages have been in the recent past.
BNP Paribas SA published this content on 27 January 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 27 January 2017 16:35:04 UTC.
Original documenthttps://group.bnpparibas/en/news/follow-leader-7-days-economics
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BNP Paribas is France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) breaks down by activity as follows:
- retail banking (54%): retail banking activity in France (24.1% of NBP), in Belgium (14.6%), and Italy (10.2%). The remainder of the NBP (51.1%) is from international activities and specialized financial services activities (consumer loans, real estate credit, leasing credit, car fleet management, computer equipment leasing);
- finance and investment banking (34.4%): consulting and capital market activities (83.7% of NBP; merger-acquisition consulting, activities related to the stock, interest, and exchange markets, etc.) and financing (16.3%; financing for acquisitions, projects, raw material transactions, etc.);
- institutional and private management and insurance (11.6%): asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services (No. 1 in Europe for retained securities).
At the end of 2023, BNP Paribas was managing EUR 988.5 billion in current deposits and EUR 859.2 billion in current loans.
Net banking product is distributed geographically as follows: Europe, Middle East and Africa (82.9%), America (9.8%) and Asia/Pacific (7.3%).