FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - On the German stock market, optimists are hoping for a golden October despite the weak start to the month. According to experts, there is also something to suggest that the leading index Dax could at least rise in the new weeks. However, the danger of a further rise in interest rates is still smoldering in the background; after all, interest-bearing investments have long since become an alternative again.

"In the stock markets, October is considered a month for positive trend reversals," wrote analyst Christian Apelt of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). One possible reason cited for this is that the risk appetite of professional investors is on the rise again after the summer - not least because they fear missing out on a possible year-end rally.

This year, according to Apelt, the current nervousness among investors in particular could lay the groundwork for a bigger recovery if the headwind from the bond market in particular eases. According to Helaba, the recent rise in yields should soon come to an end. In such a scenario, the chances for price gains in the Dax would be good. This is because valuations are low and weak growth is priced in. In addition, economic expectations and investor sentiment are likely to have bottomed out.

In the nervous market environment, Apelt sees the new week above all the U.S. inflation figures for September in focus, which will be published on Thursday. Negative surprises could give new impetus to the rise in yields and thus put pressure on the stock markets. Presumably, however, inflation will ease slightly, both in the overall rate and in core inflation. Core inflation does not take into account the prices of energy and food, which are particularly susceptible to fluctuations.

According to Apelt, indications of a slight weakening of inflation should already be provided by the U.S. producer prices on the agenda in midweek. The expert pointed out, however, that the minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be published on Wednesday. This would bring uncertainties.

For further unrest could provide data from the U.S. labor market on Thursday. If these turn out to be robust as recently, the risk of further significant wage increases rises, which is associated with additional inflation potential and thus with rising capital market interest rates.

Nevertheless, the experts at Dekabank are also quite optimistic about the future. In the USA, the yield on 30-year government bonds is almost five percent. This would make bonds increasingly attractive as an alternative to equities. However, with a view to falling inflation figures, the upswing in bond yields should not last long. This could quickly lead to a recovery in prices on the stock markets.

In the opinion of DZ Bank, the Dax has now become a real crisis bargain: "The price-earnings ratio has slipped to a level that was previously only seen during genuine economic crisis phases and thus offers a low basis for building up positions." The experts consider the expectations for the upcoming reporting season for the third quarter of 2023 as conservative and see positive surprise potential, which could trigger a significant price rally.

In the new week, only a few companies present business figures. Traditionally, one of the first companies in the reporting season is the biofuel producer Cropenergies, which presents half-year figures on Wednesday. The parent company Südzucker will follow on Thursday.

On Friday, the focus will be on the prices of the financial stocks Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, which are represented in the Dax. They could be influenced by the business figures of the U.S. banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup./la/ajx/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---