The Paris stock market got off to a good start this week with +0.4% at 7,270: the CAC40 will only have flirted for a few minutes with 7,300, the pivotal threshold which has 'fixed' the CAC40 within a 7,100/7,500 range since the end of March.

Buyers are keeping a firm grip on the market just a few days ahead of a highly-anticipated meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), the outcome of which still seems highly uncertain.

Growing threats to the European economy, recently confirmed by a series of flagging indicators, are thwarting the ECB's stated intention to continue tightening monetary policy.
The difficulties encountered by Germany (in recession by -0.4%) and China are fuelling fears of a global recession in the second half of the year.

Brussels has just revised downwards its GDP targets to +0.8% in the Eurozone (from +1% and to +1.3% in 2024 from +1.5%), but is revising upwards French growth from +0.7% to +1% for 2023.
Brussels is lowering its inflation forecasts from 5.8% to +5.6% by the end of 2023... provided that the sharp rise in oil and fuel prices does not persist this autumn (otherwise the Eurozone will rebound to +6%).

The Frankfurt-based institute is currently walking on eggshells, as the accumulation of signs of slowdown on the Old Continent in a complex global environment, particularly in view of China's difficulties, is fuelling fears of a global recession in the second half of the year.

As a result, economists are more divided than ever as to whether the Eurozone's economic situation will prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its key rates again on Thursday.

Two schools of thought now seem to be at odds. The first, embodied by BofA and Capital Economics, believes that the high inflation figures, which point to a persistent cost-of-living crisis in the eurozone, justify a further rate hike.

Other analysts, such as those at Barclays, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, take the opposite view, believing that the ECB, having raised its key rates by 1.25 percentage points since July 2022, has reached its final level.

The ECB is not the only major central bank facing a real headache, and the Federal Reserve will also have to make crucial choices next week, at its FOMC meeting on September 19 and 20.
On the rates front, yields are easing in Europe, +3pts on OATs to 3.162% and +3.2pts on Bunds to 2.631%.
T-Bonds deteriorated by +3.5Pts to 4.2900%, but this did not benefit the Dollar, which fell by -0.2% to 1.0730E.

In French company news, Bic declared itself "well on track to achieve by 2025 the five-year objectives set" as part of its Horizon strategic plan, presented in November 2020. It claims sales growth of around 600 million euros over 2020-2022 in full years, and free cash flow generation of at least 200 million expected for the fifth consecutive year in 2023.

TFF Group posted first-quarter sales of 125.6 million euros, up 15% (+18% at constant exchange rates and scope of consolidation), driven by its two core businesses of wine and spirits (+10.8% and +25.3% respectively on a comparable basis).

Société Générale announced on Monday that it would be teaming up with Canadian investment firm Brookfield Asset Management to launch a ten-billion-euro private debt fund.

Finally, Stellantis announced on Monday the launch of the third tranche of its share buyback program, for a maximum amount of 500 million euros.

Copyright (c) 2023 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.