By Kirk Maltais


-- Wheat for March delivery fell 2% to $5.85 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following Russian exports down while traders took a risk-off approach ahead of Thursday's USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.

-- Corn for March delivery fell 1.6% to $4.24 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for March delivery fell 1.5% to $11.68 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Stiff Competition: Export wheat has been growing cheaper to purchase from Russia, which has in turn pressured U.S. prices lower.

"Russian wheat is down 70 cents a bushel since Jan. 1 and this is weighing on the world wheat market," says Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. "Slowing global trade and improving global crop outlooks are also causing wheat to falter, as is the U.S. dollar trading back to 3-month highs."


Pre-Forum Jitters: Traders were risk-off ahead of the USDA's Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, which starts Thursday. The USDA is expected to issue forecasts for the 2024-25 marketing year that show higher ending stocks and robust production, which will likely pressure prices.

"U.S. operators are now impatiently awaiting the USDA's fundamental projections," said AgriTel in a note.


Low Expectations: New lows were set in corn and soybean futures ahead of the Ag Forum, with traders also expecting more slack export sales announced Thursday morning in the USDA's weekly report. The report "is expected to reflect sluggish U.S. demand due to cheaper Russian wheat and Brazilian soybean offers," said AgResource.


INSIGHT


Winter Windfall: SovEcon forecasts that Russian wheat production will be higher than initially expected, totaling 93.6 million tons in 2024, up from 92.8 million tons harvested last year. The uptick is expected to come because of a stronger winter wheat crop, which is offsetting an expected fall-off in the spring crop.

Projections for Russian production are expected to grow in their influence on world wheat prices, SovEcon said.

"Without serious frosts, optimistic prospects for the Russian crop could begin to influence global prices in the coming months," the firm said.


Stock Surge: Ethanol inventories in the U.S. for the week ended Feb. 9 jumped back over the 25 million-barrel mark, only slightly below recent highs seen. In its latest weekly report, the EIA said ethanol inventories through Feb. 9 totaled 25.81 million barrels. That is up over 1 million barrels from the previous week, and only 5,000 barrels from the year high set in mid-January. That high was the most stocks since March 2023.

Average daily production also rose, climbing to 1.083 million barrels a day for the week. That is the highest daily production since late December.


AHEAD


-- Deere & Co. is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2024 earnings report before the stock market opens Thursday.

-- The USDA will hold the first day of its Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va., beginning at 8 a.m. EST Thursday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-14-24 1521ET