Analysis: Interest Rates

Rates: The Friday bet that stirred up Wall Street

The U.S. Treasury bond market went into a frenzy yesterday, after a trader placed a large bearish bet on the U.S. 10-year. In all likelihood, this was a hedge or speculation on the strength of the...

Rates: Banzai!

This year, the financial markets are celebrating Christmas a little early. Champagne, petits fours and a healthy dose of risk are on the agenda. Let's hope it doesn't end in a hangover.

Interest rates: What if we've got it all wrong?

Falling interest rates are a mantra chanted by investors the world over. A return to easy money has been one of the driving forces behind the rise in equity markets since the end of the great...

Rates: So far, so good

Without a doubt, November will go down in the annals of history as a banner month. The stock market rallied strongly on the back of a narrative that continues to revolve around falling inflation, a...

US 10Y Cash : Black Friday week

In the absence of any major macroeconomic data due to Thanksgiving, the markets remained relatively quiet last week. However, the return to business is already underway, and Black Friday sales will be...

Rates: Inflation slows, rates ease and the market applauds

Last week's key event was undoubtedly the publication of the consumer price index, which set the world alight. The soft landing scenario is taking on new color against a backdrop of inflation control....

Rates come to their senses

In the absence of significant macroeconomic data, interest rates are easing after the central bank announcements made earlier this month. We'll be keeping an eye on future movements alongside the...

Currencies: Endgame for the dollar?

Close it down. The central bank ball ended last week, and everyone is keeping score. A quick way to understand what investors are thinking is to take a look at currencies, which are classically...

Rates: US 10-years going down the slope?

U.S. yields have gone straight down and equities are rising. All because central bankers kept their promises. Here's a look back at a key week.

Rates: The ECB leads the way

Last week, the European Central Bank unsurprisingly kept its key rates unchanged, while maintaining its hawkish stance. It's only a short step from there to saying that the Fed will do the same next...

Rates: Hit but not sunk

The US 10-year yield briefly touched 5% during the session. What happens now? Is a trend reversal possible? Let's take a look at the options available.

Rates: Beautiful curves

I've had enough of recession talks! For months, economists, pessimists and market-timers have all announced the crash of the decade, but nothing yet has come. US indices remain really high. Is dumb...

Rates: 336,000 jobs created?!

One of the advantages of writing a weekly column is to be able to take a step back from the multitude of macroeconomic data available. This week, we're going to take another look at the monthly US...

Interest rates: The US 10-year hits 4.68%

One of the pillars of the current narrative is that inflation will rapidly return to around 2%, with the corollary that central banks will adopt a more accommodating stance. While recent economic...

Rates: It's the end of the party for central banks

The past two weeks have been marked by a festival of central bank activity. After the ECB, the much-anticipated Fed followed suit, before passing the torch to the central banks of Sweden, England and...

Rates: ECB raises rates for the last time

The European Central Bank soothed investors' sensibilities by raising its key rates for the tenth time to 4.5%, while warning that the breakeven point had certainly been reached. In other words, the...

Rates: a well-oiled narrative (with no room for hiccups)

In light of the latest macroeconomic statistics, investors continue to favor a central scenario based on four pillars: the end of the monetary tightening cycle, followed by a rate cut as early as...

Rates: A very narrow path

Not too hot, not too cold. Like the children's tale, Goldilocks, investors love a happy medium. In this game, the path to a soft landing for the US economy is as tortuous as it is narrow. Here's how.

Currencies: Talk about a strategy!

Following on from my weekly commentary on interest rates, I wanted once again to make the link between monetary policy and the foreign exchange market. Due to diametrically opposed policies, the...