Financials ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Equities

ZTO

US98980A1051

Air Freight & Logistics

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 01:29:08 01/05/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
20.98 ^USD	-1.71%		+3.38%	-1.67%

21/03	JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on ZTO Express to $32 From $37, Keeps Overweight Rating	MT
21/03	BofA Securities Upgrades ZTO Express to Buy From Neutral, Price Target is $29	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,27,110	1,62,737	1,44,919	1,50,066	1,21,537	1,24,327	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,21,833	1,46,267	1,35,812	1,33,159	1,21,537	1,12,987	1,08,206	1,02,845
P/E ratio	22.5 x	35.1 x	30.9 x	22.2 x	14.2 x	13 x	11.2 x	9.9 x
Yield	-	0.85%	0.89%	-	-	3.15%	3.71%	4.32%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.75 x	6.45 x	4.77 x	4.24 x	3.16 x	2.9 x	2.53 x	2.31 x
EV / Revenue	5.51 x	5.8 x	4.47 x	3.76 x	3.16 x	2.63 x	2.2 x	1.91 x
EV / EBITDA	16 x	20.4 x	16.4 x	11.8 x	8.77 x	7.29 x	6.08 x	5.23 x
EV / FCF	152 x	-34.4 x	-113 x	30.2 x	-	15.3 x	11.7 x	11 x
FCF Yield	0.66%	-2.91%	-0.88%	3.31%	-	6.55%	8.53%	9.12%
Price to Book	3.32 x	3.22 x	2.98 x	2.78 x	-	1.9 x	1.72 x	1.55 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	7,81,947	8,55,301	8,08,448	8,09,733	8,04,719	8,04,719	-	-
Reference price ²	162.6	190.3	179.3	185.3	151.0	154.5	154.5	154.5
Announcement Date	16/03/20	17/03/21	16/03/22	15/03/23	19/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	22,110	25,214	30,406	35,377	38,419	42,886	49,129	53,723
EBITDA ¹	7,635	7,155	8,301	11,289	13,852	15,494	17,785	19,653
EBIT ¹	5,779	4,754	5,503	7,736	11,232	11,806	13,935	15,608
Operating Margin	26.14%	18.86%	18.1%	21.87%	29.24%	27.53%	28.36%	29.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	6,757	5,035	5,739	8,286	10,689	12,287	14,495	16,287
Net income ¹	5,674	4,312	4,755	6,809	8,749	9,943	11,672	13,027
Net margin	25.66%	17.1%	15.64%	19.25%	22.77%	23.19%	23.76%	24.25%
EPS ²	7.230	5.420	5.800	8.360	10.60	11.84	13.85	15.60
Free Cash Flow ¹	803.9	-4,257	-1,198	4,412	-	7,404	9,226	9,384
FCF margin	3.64%	-16.88%	-3.94%	12.47%	-	17.26%	18.78%	17.47%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	10.53%	-	-	39.08%	-	47.79%	51.88%	47.75%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	14.17%	-	-	64.79%	-	74.46%	79.05%	72.03%
Dividend per Share ²	-	1.623	1.588	-	-	4.863	5.729	6.677
Announcement Date	16/03/20	17/03/21	16/03/22	15/03/23	19/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	-	7,391	9,218	-	7,904	8,657	8,945	9,871	8,983	9,740	9,076	10,619	9,324	10,748	10,366	12,085	10,295
EBITDA ¹	-	1,968	2,739	-	1,749	2,892	2,998	3,397	2,878	3,884	3,439	3,652	3,138	4,512	3,956	3,805	3,562
EBIT ¹	-	1,360	2,054	-	1,369	1,986	2,175	2,460	2,447	3,179	2,694	2,913	2,226	3,360	2,905	3,274	2,477
Operating Margin	-	18.41%	22.28%	-	17.32%	22.94%	24.31%	24.92%	27.23%	32.64%	29.68%	27.43%	23.87%	31.26%	28.03%	27.1%	24.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	1,397	2,103	-	1,154	2,187	2,348	2,597	2,116	3,106	2,610	2,857	2,172	3,546	2,990	3,404	2,510
Net income ¹	3,634	1,167	1,762	2,929	906.3	1,805	1,935	2,163	1,670	2,541	2,345	2,192	1,670	2,638	2,545	2,429	-
Net margin	-	15.79%	19.12%	-	11.47%	20.85%	21.63%	21.91%	18.59%	26.09%	25.84%	20.64%	17.91%	24.54%	24.55%	20.1%	-
EPS ²	-	1.430	2.180	-	1.120	2.230	2.370	2.610	2.030	3.070	2.840	2.660	2.420	3.220	2.990	3.590	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	1.588	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.6276	0.6276	0.6276	3.010	1.466
Announcement Date	16/03/20	17/11/21	16/03/22	16/03/22	25/05/22	17/08/22	21/11/22	15/03/23	17/05/23	29/08/23	16/11/23	19/03/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	5,277	16,470	9,108	16,907	-	11,340	16,121	21,482
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	804	-4,257	-1,198	4,412	-	7,404	9,226	9,384
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	15.6%	10.5%	9.74%	13.3%	-	15.5%	16.2%	16.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	13.3%	8.71%	7.8%	9.64%	-	10.7%	11.5%	12%
Assets ¹	42,787	49,526	60,988	70,648	-	92,813	1,01,405	1,08,523
Book Value Per Share ²	49.00	59.10	60.20	66.80	-	81.30	90.10	99.40
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.040	6.220	8.810	13.60	-	17.00	19.30	21.20
Capex ¹	2,827	9,208	8,360	7,068	-	6,037	5,850	5,640
Capex / Sales	12.78%	36.52%	27.5%	19.98%	-	14.08%	11.91%	10.5%
Announcement Date	16/03/20	17/03/21	16/03/22	15/03/23	19/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

154.5 CNY

Average target price

203.7 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+31.83%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Courier Services

	1st Jan change	Capi.
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OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG	-8.56%	2.18B
STO EXPRESS CO.,LTD	+17.46%	1.91B
HANGZHOU SF INTRA-CITY INDUSTRIAL CO., LTD.	-0.19%	1.17B
CTT-CORREIOS DE PORTUGAL, S.A.	+26.36%	672M
TCI EXPRESS LIMITED	-24.82%	478M

Courier Services