STEEL FOR FUEL 2.0
AGA Investor Meetings
May 2024
© 2024 Xcel Energy | 1 |
Safe Harbor
Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including those relating to 2024 EPS guidance, long-term EPS and dividend growth rate objectives, future sales, future expenses, future tax rates, future operating performance, estimated base capital expenditures and financing plans, projected capital additions and forecasted annual revenue requirements with respect to rider filings, expected rate increases to customers, expectations and intentions regarding regulatory proceedings, and expected impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows of resettlement calculations and credit losses relating to certain energy transactions, as well as assumptions and other statements are intended to be identified in this document by the words "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "objective," "outlook," "plan," "project," "possible," "potential," "should," "will," "would" and similar expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we expressly disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking information. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in Xcel Energy's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2023 and subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations as suggested by such forward-looking information: operational safety, including our nuclear generation facilities and other utility operations; successful long-term operational planning; commodity risks associated with energy markets and production; rising energy prices and fuel costs; qualified employee workforce and third-party contractor factors; violations of our Codes of Conduct; our ability to recover costs and our subsidiaries' ability to recover costs from customers; changes in regulation; reductions in our credit ratings and the cost of maintaining certain contractual relationships; general economic conditions, including recessionary conditions, inflation rates, monetary fluctuations, supply chain constraints and their impact on capital expenditures and/or the ability of Xcel Energy Inc. and its subsidiaries to obtain financing on favorable terms; availability or cost of capital; our customers' and counterparties' ability to pay their debts to us; assumptions and costs relating to funding our employee benefit plans and health care benefits; our subsidiaries' ability to make dividend payments; tax laws; uncertainty regarding epidemics, the duration and magnitude of business restrictions including shutdowns (domestically and globally), the potential impact on the workforce, including shortages of employees or third-party contractors due to quarantine policies, vaccination requirements or government restrictions, impacts on the transportation of goods and the generalized impact on the economy; effects of geopolitical events, including war and acts of terrorism; cybersecurity threats and data security breaches; seasonal weather patterns; changes in environmental laws and regulations; climate change and other weather events; natural disasters and resource depletion, including compliance with any accompanying legislative and regulatory changes; costs of potential regulatory penalties and wildfire damages in excess of liability insurance coverage; regulatory changes and/or limitations related to the use of natural gas as an energy source; challenging labor market conditions and our ability to attract and retain a qualified workforce; and our ability to execute on our strategies or achieve expectations related to environmental, social and governance matters including as a result of evolving legal, regulatory and other standards, processes, and assumptions, the pace of scientific and technological developments, increased costs, the availability of requisite financing, and changes in carbon markets.
Contacts
Paul Johnson
Vice President, Treasurer & IR
- 215-4535paul.a.johnson@xcelenergy.com
Roopesh Aggarwal | Darin Norman |
Senior Director, Investor Relations | Consultant, Investor Relations |
(303) 571-2855 | (612) 337-2310 |
roopesh.k.aggarwal@xcelenergy.com | darin.norman@xcelenergy.com |
Website: https://investors.xcelenergy.com/ | Xcel Energy app also available | 2 |
Attractive Investment Thesis
Pure-Play, Regulated Utility that Consistently Delivers
Transparent Long-term
Growth Plan
Leading the Clean Energy
Transition
Accelerated Wildfire Risk
Management
- Vertically integrated utility across eight states
- Met or exceeded earnings guidance for 19 consecutive years
- Dividend increases for 21 consecutive years
- Long-termEPS and dividend growth of 5-7%
- Base 5-year capital plan of $39 billion, reflecting 9.0% rate base growth
- Incremental $5 billion of potential upside, reflecting 10.6% rate base growth
- Competitive advantages and robust pipeline to capture data center demand
- Sustainability goals across electricity, natural gas service and transportation
- Full coal retirement by 2030; 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030
- Average residential electric and natural gas bills well below industry average
- 10-yearcustomer bill growth below rate of inflation
- Implemented proactive power shutoffs, enhanced wildfire safety settings and accelerated pole inspections / replacements
- Wildfire mitigation and resiliency plans to be filed in PSCo and SPS in 2024
- Exploring legislative and industry-sponsored solutions to reduce risk and exposure
3
Fully Regulated and Vertically Integrated Utility
Four
Operating Companies
Eight
States
3.8 Million
Electric Customers
2.2 Million
Natural Gas Customers
$42 Billion
2023 Rate Base
21 GW
Owned Gen. Capacity
~11,000 Employees
As of 12/31/2023
Northern States Power Minnesota (NSPM)
Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota
- 2023 Rate Base: $15.6 billion
- 2023 Ongoing EPS: $1.28
- 2024 - 2028 Base Cap Ex: $13.1 billion
Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo)
Colorado
- 2023 Rate Base: $16.9 billion
- 2023 Ongoing EPS: $1.26
- 2024 - 2028 Base Cap Ex: $19.2 billion
Northern States Power Wisconsin (NSPW)
Wisconsin, Michigan
- 2023 Rate Base: $2.3 billion
- 2023 Ongoing EPS: $0.25
- 2024 - 2028 Base Cap Ex: $3.0 billion
Southwestern Public Service (SPS)
Texas, New Mexico
• 2023 | Rate Base: $7.1 billion | ||
• | 2023 Ongoing EPS: $0.70 | ||
• | 2024 | - 2028 Base Cap Ex: $4.1 billion | 4 |
Strategy
VISION
We will be the preferred and trusted provider of the energy our customers need
MISSION
We provide our customers the safe, clean, reliable energy services they want and value at a competitive price
VALUES Connected
PRIORITIES
CO2 Lead the Clean Energy Transition
- Electricity: 80% carbon reduction by 2030, 100% carbon-free by 2050
- Natural gas: 25% GHG reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050
Enhance the Customer Experience
• Conservation, new products/services
• 1 in 5 EVs enabled by 2030
Keep Bills Low
• Average bill increases <rate of inflation
Committed | Safe | Trustworthy |
5
Target Returns
~8-10% Total Shareholder
Return
5-7% EPS Growth
~4% Dividend Yield
5-7% CAGR | 50-60% Payout Ratio
6
Proven Track Record
Ongoing EPS
$3.50- $3.60
$1.15
2005 | 2007 | 2009 | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024E |
Guidance Range
Dividend
2005 | 2007 | 2009 | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 2024 |
Annual Increase
Performance Within Guidance
2024 | ON TRACK | |||||||||||||||||||
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2009 | Result | |||||||||||||||||||
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Low End | Midpoint | High End |
7
Strong Rate Base Growth
Xcel Energy Consolidated
Base 2023 - 2028 CAGR: ~9.0% | ||||||
Additional 2023 - 2028 CAGR: ~10.6% | $4.6 | |||||
$3.7 | ||||||
$ Billions | ||||||
$2.5 | ||||||
$1.2 | $57.7 | $61.8 | $64.8 | |||
$53.1 | ||||||
$46.5 | ||||||
$41.9 | ||||||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
OpCo Base CAGRs
2023 - 2028
NSPM | PSCo | |||
~7% | ~12% | |||
XEL | ||||
~9% | ||||
NSPW | SPS | |||
~12% | ~4% | |||
OpCo CAGRs exclude potential additional capital investment
8
Incremental Capital Investment - Steel for Fuel 2.0
Capital Investment 2024 - 2028
$ Millions
$39,000
$2,620
Future PSCo RFPs
$740
Recommended Solar + Storage
$44,000
$1,640
Outstanding RFPs
Base Capital Plan PSCo Resource Plan SPS Resource Plan | NSP RFPs | Additional Capital Plan |
Estimates are subject to change, RFP processes and regulatory approvals
Additional capital investment above the Base Plan would be funded with approximately 40% equity and 60% debt
9
Potential Investment Not Included in Base or Incremental Plan
NSP Resource Plan
SPS Resource Plan
Wind Repowerings
Resiliency and Reliability
- ~2,300 MW of wind, solar and storage
- ~1,400 MW of firm peaking
- Assuming 50% ownership, capital costs of ~$1,500-2,000/kw
- Potential capital investment of $3-4 billion*
- Resource plan estimate 5,000-10,000 MW of incremental generation
- Assuming 50% ownership, capital costs of ~$1,500-2,000/kw
- Potential capital investment of $4-10 billion*
- 3.3 GW of potential repowering opportunities from 2028-2031
- Repowering capital costs could range between ~$1,500-2,000/kw
- Potential capital investment of $5-7 billion*
- Distribution and transmission investments to support new demand
- Wildfire mitigation and resiliency plans to be filed in PSCo and SPS in 2024
- Plan to file additional wildfire mitigation plans in other states
- Potential capital investment to be determined in third quarter
* Potential investment could extend past 2028. Estimates are subject to change, RFP processes and regulatory approvals. | 10 |
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Disclaimer
Xcel Energy Inc. published this content on 19 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 May 2024 19:12:57 UTC.