N o v e m b e r 5 , 2 0 1 9
Third Quarter 2019
R E S U L T S
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Vistra Energy Corp. ("Vistra Energy") operates and beliefs of and assumptions made by Vistra Energy's management, involve risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict and are not guarantees of future performance, that could significantly affect the financial results of Vistra Energy. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that are presented herein, or in response to questions or otherwise, that address activities, events or developments that may occur in the future, including such matters as activities related to our financial or operational projections, projected synergy, value lever and net debt targets, capital allocation, capital expenditures, liquidity, projected Adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate, dividend policy, business strategy, competitive strengths, goals, future acquisitions or dispositions, development or operation of power generation assets, market and industry developments and the growth of our businesses and operations (often, but not always, through the use of words or phrases, or the negative variations of those words or other comparable words of a future or forward-looking nature, including, but not limited to, "intends," "plans," "will likely," "unlikely," "believe," "expect," "seek," "anticipate," "estimate," "continue," "will," "shall," "should," "could," "may," "might," "predict," "project," "forecast," "target," "potential," "forecast," "goal," "objective," "guidance" and "outlook"),are forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Although Vistra Energy believes that in making any such forward-looking statement, Vistra Energy's expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such forward-looking statement involves uncertainties and risks that could cause results to differ materially from those projected in or implied by any such forward-looking statement, including but not limited, to: (i) adverse changes in general economic or market conditions (including changes in interest rates) or changes in political conditions or federal or state laws and regulations; (ii) the ability of Vistra Energy to execute upon its contemplated strategic and performance initiatives and to successfully integrate acquired businesses; (iii) actions by credit ratings agencies; and (iv) those additional risks and factors discussed in reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") by Vistra Energy from time to time, including the uncertainties and risks discussed in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" and "Forward-Looking Statements" in Vistra Energy's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018 and any subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only at the date on which it is made, and except as may be required by law, Vistra Energy will not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which it is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict all of them; nor can Vistra Energy assess the impact of each such factor or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
Disclaimer Regarding Industry and Market Data
Certain industry and market data used in this presentation is based on independent industry publications, government publications, reports by market research firms or other published independent sources. We did not commission any of these publications, reports or other sources. Some data is also based on good faith estimates, which are derived from our review of internal surveys, as well as the independent sources listed above. Industry publications, reports and other sources generally state that they have obtained information from sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of such information. While we believe that each of these publications, reports and other sources is reliable, we have not independently investigated or verified the information contained or referred to therein and make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Forecasts are particularly likely to be inaccurate, especially over long periods of time, and we often do not know what assumptions were used in preparing such forecasts. Statements regarding industry and market data used in this presentation involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on various factors, including those discussed above under the heading "Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements".
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 2 |
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS (CONT'D)
Information About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability
"Adjusted EBITDA" (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement obligations, reorganization items, and certain other items described from time to time in Vistra Energy's earnings releases), "Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth" (cash from operating activities excluding changes in margin deposits and working capital and adjusted for capital expenditures (including capital expenditures for growth investments), other net investment activities, preferred stock dividends, and other items described from time to time in Vistra Energy's earnings releases), "Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA" (adjusted EBITDA less adjusted EBITDA from Asset Closure segment) and "Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth" (adjusted free cash flow less cash flow from operating activities from Asset Closure segment before growth), are "non-GAAP financial measures." A non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of financial performance that excludes or includes amounts so as to be different than the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP in Vistra Energy's consolidated statements of operations, comprehensive income, changes in stockholders' equity and cash flows. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Vistra Energy's non-GAAP financial measures may be different from non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies.
Vistra Energy uses adjusted EBITDA as a measure of performance and believes that analysis of its business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both net income prepared in accordance with GAAP and adjusted EBITDA. Vistra Energy uses adjusted free cash flow before growth as a measure of liquidity and believes that analysis of its ability to service its cash obligations is supported by disclosure of both cash provided by (used in) operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP as well as adjusted free cash flow. Vistra Energy uses Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA as a measure of performance and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth as a measure of liquidity and Vistra Energy's management and board of directors have found it informative to view the Asset Closure segment as separate and distinct from Vistra Energy's ongoing operations. The schedules attached to this earnings release reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 3 |
AGENDA
- Welcome and Safe Harbor
Molly Sorg,VP Investor Relations
- Q3 2019 Highlights and10-Year Fundamental Outlook
Curt Morgan,President and Chief Executive Officer
- Financial Highlights
David Campbell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 4 |
Q3 2019 Highlights
Curt Morgan
Chief Executive Officer
Q3 2019 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Q3 2019 Financial Results
Ongoing Operations ($ millions)
Q3 2019 Adjusted EBITDA1 | $1,064 |
YTD 2019 Adjusted EBITDA1 | $2,586 |
- Third quarter andyear-to-date results are in-line with management expectations
Narrowing and Raising 2019 Guidance
Ongoing Operations ($ millions)
PRIOR 2019 | CURRENT 2019 | Illustrative 20192 | |
Adjusted EBITDA1 | $3,220 - $3,420 | $3,320 - $3,420 | $3,360 - $3,460 |
Adjusted FCFbG1 | $2,100 - $2,300 | $2,200 - $2,300 | $2,240 - $2,340 |
FCF Conversion | ~66% | ~67% | |
- 2019 guidance includes expected ($40) millionin-year impact from execution of NPV-positive,long-dated contracts with retail customers
Closed Acquisition of Ambit Energy
- Acquisition closed November 1; Ambit expected to contribute approximately$15-20 million to Adjusted EBITDA in 2019 (included in 2019 guidance range)
- Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG arenon-GAAP financial measures. See the "Non-GAAP Reconciliation" tables for further details.
- Illustrative guidance adds back the negative $40 million impact from retail term contract backwardation expected in 2019 results. Provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be read or viewed as Vistra's actual 2019 guidance, which is also set forth above.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 6 |
INITIATING 2020 GUIDANCE
Initiating 2020 Guidance
Ongoing Operations ($ millions)
2020 | Illustrative 20202 | |
Adjusted EBITDA1 | $3,285 - $3,585 | $3,355 - $3,655 |
Adjusted FCFbG1 | $2,160 - $2,460 | $2,230 - $2,530 |
FCF Conversion | ~67% | |
- 2020 guidance includes expected ($70) millionin-year impact from execution of NPV-positive,long-dated contracts with retail customers
2021 Outlook
- Vistra's fundamental point of view suggests 2021E Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA could trackin-linewith or potentially higher than 2020E results
Dynegy Merger Projections
- 2020 guidance midpoint is$625 millionabove the 2020 projected EBITDA in connection with the Dynegy merger
- 2021E Adjusted EBITDA, if relatively flat to the 2020 guidance midpoint, would benearly $700 millionabove the 2021 projected EBITDA in connection with the Dynegy merger
Pre-Merger EBITDA
Projections3
($ millions)
2020 2021
$2,810 $2,746
- Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG arenon-GAAP financial measures. See the "Non-GAAP Reconciliation" tables for further details.
- Illustrative guidance adds back the negative $70 million impact from retail term contract backwardation expected in 2020 results. Provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be read or viewed as Vistra's actual 2020 guidance, which is also set forth above.
- See Joint Proxy Statement and Prospectus on FormS-4 filed with the SEC on 1/25/2018.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 7 |
ERCOT SUMMER AND FORWARD CURVES
ERCOT 2020 and 2021 forward curves rose following August and September volatility, with the
greatest increase observed in 2020 forwards heading into the start of the delivery year
Price Volatility
- Sharp uplift in pricing observed as delivery year approaches, particularly in 2019 and 2020, reflecting updated scarcity pricing outlook and tight market conditions
- Reduced market liquidity in forward periods tends to artificially depress pricing; backwardated forward curves also disincentivize new merchant build, particularly thermal
- Volatility and price spikes driven by unpredictability of intermittent resources; expected to continue and increase
ERCOT North 7x24 Prices ($/MWh)
40
36
32
28
24
12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Months Before Delivery Year | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||
Summer Performance
12
15-minute intervals cleared at $9,000/MWh
$1,743/MWh
5x16 settle price on August 15, 2019
$131/MWh
Average 7x24 settle price in August,
compared to ~$30/MWh in July
74,666 MW
Peak demand set on August 12, 2019
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 8 |
INCREASING OPI VALUE LEVER TARGETS
OPI value lever target increased to $425M/year, reflecting an additional $50M/year of opportunity
identified in ongoing fleet operations plus an expected EBITDA annual uplift of a
net $100M from required MISO plant retirements; Vistra's merger value lever target is
increased to $715M/year
2021E OPI ADJ. EBITDA VALUE LEVERS ($M)
-25 | $275 | 50 | 425 |
125 | 375 | ||
275 |
Previously Announced | EBITDA Accretion from | OPI Reduction | OPI Target Adjusted for OPI Target Increase | OPI Run Rate 2021 |
OPI Target | MISO Plant Retirements | Attributed to Retired | Retired MISO Plants | |
MISO Plants |
- OPI value lever target for ongoing fleet operations increased by$50M/year
- Four MISO plants retired as required underMulti-Pollutant Standard rule changes expected to improve 2021E adjusted EBITDA by ~$100M/yearas compared to a base case of running the assets
- $125M of annual EBITDA uplift partially offset by $25M/year of forgone OPI opportunity
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 9 |
10-Year
Fundamental Outlook
Curt Morgan
Chief Executive Officer
VISTRA 10-YEAR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
We believe Vistra's integrated business is well -positioned for success over the next
decade and beyond
- Vistra has announced a goal to reduce CO2equivalent emissions by more than 50% by 2030 as compared to a 2010 baseline
- Vistra has already retired, or announced plans to retire, 14 coal plants and 3 gas plants, reducing annual CO2equivalent emissions by ~42% compared to a 2010 baseline
- Vistra can achieve its 2030 goal via the incremental retirement of assets representing ~2.5% of 2020E Adjusted EBITDA
- Based on a fundamental analysis, Vistra projects plants representing~5-8% of 2020E adjusted EBITDA could be at risk of retirement in the next decade
- In total, replacing this EBITDA at risk would require in the range of$1.0-1.5B of investment at Vistra's targeted return levels over the next 10 years. In fact, Vistra has already more than replaced the equivalent loss of EBITDA with retail and battery investments and other EBITDA improvement initiatives such as OPI
- Estimates derived from fundamental analysis highlights the advantaged position of Vistra'slow-cost,highly-flexible generation fleet
- Given the increased volatility in markets with higher renewables penetration, flexible natural gas assets are projected to run more and remain valuable over the next 10 years
- In ERCOT, Vistra's fundamental analysis suggests mean annual wholesale prices will remain in themid-$30s/MWh, with volatility and scarcity pricing events a prominent ongoing feature
- Vistra's fundamental analysis of PJM forecasts that margins will remain in the range of historical levels
- Retail is expected to be a stable and growing contributor to Vistra's performance
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 11 |
ERCOT 10-YEAR PERSPECTIVE
ERCOT Demand Growth
2019-30E, GW
92.9
88
74.7
20192030
Additional Capacity
- Since 2008, ERCOT has added ~36.5 GW of capacity - 15.9 GW of thermal generation and 20.6 GW of renewables
- Vistra modeled scenarios addingup to 50 GW nameplate of new renewables(22 GW solar, 22 GW wind, 6 GW storage) by 2030 - without assuming sustained transmission capacity constraints
- Supported by PPAs and economics
- Assumes 17 GW of load growth and merchant build financing
Retirements
-
Generation supply stack includes ~15 GW of generation potentially at risk of retirement. Vistra modeled retirements based on economic factors or plant obsolescence resulting in 3.5 GW of retirements; further potential retirements mitigate potential downside
price scenarios
ERCOT Supply Stack
- Based on fundamental analysis, ERCOT prices are projected to remain in themid $30s/MWh, notwithstanding a very significant buildout of new renewable resources
- Assumes on average more than ~1.5 GW of load growth per year
- Scarcity and price spikes will likely be a consistent feature of the market
- Vistra'shighly efficient,low-costgeneration fleet remainswell-positioned, with flexible gas-fueled CCGT, steam units and peakers increasing in value in a more volatile market
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 12 |
EXAMPLE OF ERCOT SCARCITY PRICING
AUGUST 15, 2019
Intermittency of generation resources is a key driver of scarcity pricing events in ERCOT
ERCOT MARKET DYNAMICS
AUGUST 15, 2019
All-time Peak | Peak Price | ||
Demand | $9,000/MWh | ||
74,666 MW | 12 | ||
80 | |||
75 | 10 | ||
70 | |||
GW | 65 | 8 | Wind |
Demand | GWGen | ||
55 | 6 | ||
60 | |||
4 | |||
50 | |||
45 | 2 | ||
40 | 0 | ||
Hour 1 | 24 |
Wind Demand Price1
August 15, 2019 Highlights
ERCOT demand levels were in the seasonally normal rangeacross peak hours; however, low wind
generation levels created tight market conditions
Price volatility remained high
-
Wind generation online at less than 15% of nameplate capacity a
major driver of prices reaching $9,000/MWh
1ERCOT North Hub real-time settled prices
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 13 |
ERCOT 2019 BACKCAST
Given the high penetration of renewables, scarcity events are likely to continue in ERCOT
Number of Days with 100°F + in Dallas,
97°F + in Houston 2010-19
North Hub High Price Hours (Price>$1000)
Observed Historical vs.
Fundamental Model Recast with 2020 Stack1
63 | |||||||||||
21 | 20 | 26 | 18 18 | ||||||||
10 | 14 | ||||||||||
5 | 5 | ||||||||||
4 | 4 | ||||||||||
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
- 2019 was not an outlier of extreme temperature days
- Average temperatures do not cause scarcity/ORDC events, rather it is the combination of high load and low renewables
- Based on modeling of the past 20 years in ERCOT, the 2019 summer was an average to below average year for scarcity conditions; recasting prior years based on the 2020 supply stack1highlights likelihood of scarcity events going forward
12020 supply stack is representative of Vistra's fundamental point of view.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 14 |
PJM 10-YEAR PERSPECTIVE
On Peak Spark Spread | Capacity Prices |
$/MWh | $/MW-Day |
25 | 250 |
20 | 200 |
15 | 150 |
100 | |
10 | 50 |
5 | 0 |
0 |
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||||||||||
ComEd | Western/RTO | EMAAC | ComEd | RTO | EMAAC | |||||||||
- Vistra's fundamental analysis results inexpectations of flat to gradually rising overall energy and capacity pricing in PJM, driven by tightening reserve margins, the possibility of slightly rising natural gas prices, and the ongoing retirement of older, less-efficient coal, gas and oil generation units (replaced by renewable resources as state RPS goals are achieved and by new gas generation)
- Vistra modeled a wide range of scenarios, including 35 GW of coal and high heat rate gas retirements, 20 GW of new CCGTs, and 30 GW of new renewables (solar, wind, and storage)
- Regional price differences are expected to continue
- Resultsyear-to-year are expected to vary, similar to recent years, but margins are expected to remain consistent with historical levels, especially for CCGTs with strong contribution from energy and capacity
- Vistra benefits from its large fleet of efficient CCGT units
Note: Spark spreads calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 MWh/mmbtu with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs. Spreads based on Day-Ahead and Gas Daily settles of: ComEd/Chicago Citygate; Western Hub/Dominion South; and AD Hub/Columbia Gas Appalachia.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 15 |
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES VS. EBITDA AT RISK
Investing an average of $500M/year over the next 10 years would result in a
growing EBITDA profilethat more than offsets the impact of potential future retirements while leaving significant excess cash to return to shareholders
Modeled Adjusted EBITDA1 | 3,980 | 4,040 |
2021-30 | ||
3,910 | ||
3,850 |
3,780
3,720
3,650
3,590
3,530
Growth Wedge
3,435 3,435 | EBITDA lost to achieve GHG Target 3,350 | |||
3,400 | 3,380 | Replacement Wedge | ||
3,350 3,320 | ||||
3,290 3,2603,240 | ||||
3,210 | ||||
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
- Assumes a 2021 Adj. EBITDA that is flat to 2020 guidance midpoint. Assumes $500M/year of growth investments, resulting in~$90-100M of incremental EBITDA/year. Generally assumes ratable retirements representing ~6.5% of Vistra's 2020E Adj. EBITDA (midpoint of EBITDA at-risk analysis) beginning in 2023. Fundamental analysis supports base business resiliency. 2021-30 modeled Adjusted EBITDA does not constitute guidance. Reflects one possible future scenario; a wide range of potential outcomes is possible.
- Reflects potential EBITDA generated by $500M of equity in investments funded at overall company leverage ratios and achieving returns that are~500-600 basis points higher than Vistra's estimated cost of equity.
Illustrative Cash Generation
- ~$2B/year, or ~$20B over 10 years
Illustrative Growth Investments
- ~$500M/year, or ~$5B over 10 years
- <$0.5B to replace lost EBITDA to achieve GHG reductions
-
Incremental~$0.5-1.0B to replace at-risk
EBITDA - Incremental~$3.5-4.0B to fund growth
- At Vistra's targeted returns, would result in
EBITDA growth of ~$90-100M/year2 - Scale and capabilities allow for capture of attractive returns
- Investments likely in retail, renewables, battery storage, and other volatility assets
Illustrative Excess Adjusted FCF After Growth
- ~$1.5B/year, or ~$15B over 10 years
- Supports:
- Consistently growing dividend
- Strong balance sheet and investment grade credit metrics
- Returning excess cash to shareholders
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 16 |
Financial Highlights
David Campbell
Chief Financial Officer
Q3 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Vistra executed well in the third quarter, delivering strong year -to-date results that are
in-line with management expectations
ONGOING OPERATIONS
ADJUSTED EBITDA1
($ millions)
2,586
463
1,153 | 1,064 | ||||||||||||||
141 | 2,123 | ||||||||||||||
1,151 | |||||||||||||||
1,012 | |||||||||||||||
-87 | |||||||||||||||
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 2019 | |||||||||||||
Generation2 | Retail | ||||||||||||||
HIGHLIGHTS
Q3 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1: $1,064 million
- $89M lower than 3Q18 results due to lower prices and volumes in PJM, NY/NE, and MISO; lower results in Retail offset by results in ERCOT generation
- Retail:$228M lower than 3Q18 due to higher retail cost of goods sold in the summer
- Generation2:$139M higher than 3Q18; $226M increase in ERCOT due to higher realized prices; $76M decrease in PJM, NY/NE, and MISO due to lower prices and volumes
YTD 2019 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1:
$2,586 million
- YTD results arein-line with management expectations
- Excludes Asset Closure segment Adjusted EBITDA results of $(12) million in 3Q18, $(4) million in 3Q19, and $(32) million in YTD 2019. Adjusted EBITDA is anon-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Reconciliation" tables for further details.
- Generation includes Corporate.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 18 |
NARROWING AND UPDATING 2019 GUIDANCE
Vistra's integrated business once again demonstrated its stability, delivering solid results in the
third quarter of 2019 and positioning the company for a strong year
2019E Guidance | Prior | Current | 2019E Illustrative2 | ||
(November 2018) | (November 2019) | ||||
($ millions) | |||||
Generation1 | $2,480 | - $2,610 | $2,520 - $2,580 | $2,520 | - $2,580 |
Retail | $740 | - $810 | $800 - $840 | 840 | - 880 |
Ongoing Operations | $3,220 | - $3,420 | $3,320 - $3,420 | $3,360 | - $3,460 |
Adjusted EBITDA | |||||
Asset Closure Segment3 | ($65) | - ($55) | ($105) - ($85) | ($105) - ($85) | |
Ongoing Operations | $2,100 | - $2,300 | $2,200 - $2,300 | $2,240 - $2,340 | |
Adjusted FCFbG | |||||
Asset Closure Segment3 | ($155) | - ($135) | ($170) - ($150) | ($170) | - ($150) |
Ongoing Operations | ~66% | ~67% | |||
Conversion of EBITDA to FCFbG | |||||
- Includes Corporate. November 2018 guidance reflects forward price curves as of September 28, 2018 for all markets. November 2019 guidance reflects forward price curves as of October 10, 2019 for all markets.
- Illustrative guidance adds back the negative $40 million impact from retail term contract backwardation expected in 2019 results. Provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be read or viewed as Vistra's actual 2019 guidance, which is also set forth above.
- November 2019 guidance for the Asset Closure Segment includes the expected full year results from the four MISO plants retiring in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 19 |
INITIATING 2020 GUIDANCE
2020 is poised to be another strong year, with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA
forecast to be approximately $3.5 billion when excluding the in -year estimated
impacts of NPV-positive,long-dated contracts with retail customers
2020E Guidance | Initiating | 2020E Illustrative2 |
2020E Guidance | ||
($ millions) | ||
Generation1 | $2,435 - $2,635 | $2,435 - $2,635 |
Retail | $850 - $950 | $920 - $1,020 |
Ongoing Operations | $3,285 - $3,585 | $3,355 - $3,655 |
Adjusted EBITDA | ||
Asset Closure Segment | ($95) - ($75) | ($95) - ($75) |
Ongoing Operations | $2,160 - $2,460 | $2,230 - $2,530 |
Adjusted FCFbG | ||
Asset Closure Segment | ($190) - ($170) | ($190) - ($170) |
Ongoing Operations | ~67% | |
Conversion of EBITDA to FCFbG | ||
- Includes Corporate. Guidance reflects forward price curves as of October 10, 2019 for all markets.
- Illustrative guidance adds back the negative $70 million impact from retail term contract backwardation expected in 2020 results. Provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be read or viewed as Vistra's actual 2020 guidance, which is also set forth above.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 20 |
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Vistra is committed to executing on previously-announced capital allocation plan
Share Repurchase Program | Dividend Program | Leverage Target |
$335M | Focused on reducing debt to | |
Paid quarterly dividend of | achieve long-term leverage | |
target of | ||
of authorized $1.75B | ||
$0.125/sh | ||
remains available for repurchases | 2.5x | |
as of October 31, 2019 | on September 30, 2019; | |
• $1,415 millionof program executed | Management expects | Net debt/EBITDA |
through October 31, 2019 | ~6-8%annual growth rate on | |
• Repurchased approximately 60 million | Lower debt reduces risk, | |
$0.50/sh annualized dividend | ||
shares | supports opportunistic | |
• ~487 millionshares outstanding as of | growth, and enhances long- | |
October 31, 2019 | term equity value | |
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 21 |
Q&A
Appendix
CORPORATE DEBT PROFILE
($ millions) | 9/30/19 | 2019E | 2020E |
Term Loan B | $3,798 | $3,798 | $3,798 |
Senior Secured Notes | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
Senior Notes1 | 4,734 | 4,347 | 3,600 |
Other2 | 957 | 1,020 | 420 |
Total Long Term Debt3 | $11,489 | $11,165 | 9,818 |
Less: cash and cash equivalents4 | (707) | (400) | (400) |
Total Net Debt | $10,782 | $10,765 | 9,418 |
Pro Forma Illustrative Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA5 | $3,560 | $3,600 | |
Gross Debt / EBITDA (x) | 3.1x | 2.7x | |
Net Debt / EBITDA (x) | 3.0x | 2.6x | |
- 2019E reflects voluntary repayment of ~$387 million of senior notes on 11/1/19; 2020E assumes additional voluntary repayments of the remaining ~$747 million of legacy Dynegy senior notes in 2020.
- Includes Equipment and Forward Capacity Agreements, Accounts Receivable Securitization, and assumed debt related to the Crius closing; assumes repayment of $600 million of debt in 2020.
- Excludes $70mm of Preferred Stock (paid off 10/3/19) and Vistra's building financing lease.
- Reflects minimum cash balance of $400 million at 12/31/19 and 12/31/20.
- 2019E reflects midpoint of Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA Guidance (Ongoing Operations), plus pro forma adjustments to reflect expectedfull-yearrun-rate EBITDA contribution (after synergies) from Crius and Ambit; 2020E reflects midpoint of Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA Guidance (Ongoing Operations), plus pro forma adjustments to reflect expected full-year run- rate EBITDA contribution (after synergies) from Crius, Ambit and Moss Landing.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 24 |
SELECT DEBT BALANCES
FUNDED DEBT TRANCHES
As of September 30, 20191($ millions)
Issuer | Series | Principal Outstanding | ||
Secured Debt | ||||
Vistra Operations | Senior Secured Term Loan B-1 due August 2023 | $1,897 | ||
Vistra Operations | Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 | 1,901 | ||
Vistra Operations | 3.550% | Senior Secured Notes due July 2024 | 1,200 | |
Vistra Operations | 4.300% | Senior Secured Notes due July 2029 | 800 | |
Total Secured | $5,798 | |||
Unsecured Notes | ||||
Vistra Operations | 5.500% | Senior Unsecured Notes due September 2026 | $1,000 | |
Vistra Operations | 5.625% | Senior Unsecured Notes due February 2027 | 1,300 | |
Vistra Operations | 5.000% | Senior Unsecured Notes due July 2027 | 1,300 | |
Vistra Energy | 5.875% | Senior Unsecured Notes due June 2023 | 500 | |
Vistra Energy | 7.625% | Senior Unsecured Notes due November 20242 | 387 | |
Vistra Energy | 8.000% | Senior Unsecured Notes due January 2025 | 81 | |
Vistra Energy | 8.125% | Senior Unsecured Notes due January 2026 | 166 | |
Total Unsecured | $4,734 | |||
- Excludes building financing, forward capacity agreement, equipment financing agreements, mandatorily redeemable subsidiary preferred stock (paid off 10/3/19), A/R securitization, and assumed Crius debt.
- On November 1, 2019, Vistra Energy redeemed all outstanding $7.625% Senior Notes due 2024.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 25 |
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES12019E - 2020E ($ millions)
2019E | 2020E | ||
Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2 | $362 | $533 | |
Nuclear Fuel | 81 | 85 | |
Non-Recurring3 | 81 | 3 | |
Growth | 27 | 42 | |
Total Capital Expenditures | $551 | $663 | |
Non-Recurring3 | (81) | (3) | |
Growth | (27) | (42) | |
Adjusted Capital Expenditures | $443 | $618 | |
- Excludes LTSA prepayments and Moss Landing development. Capital expenditure projection is on a cash basis.
- Includes Environmental and IT, Corporate, and Other.
- Non-recurringcapital expenditures include Comanche Peak generator & rotor capital and certain non-recurring IT, Corporate, and Other capital expenditures.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 26 |
THIRD QUARTER RETAIL METRICS
Q3 2019 RETAIL HIGHLIGHTS
- Closed the Ambit acquisition on 11/1, further diversifying Retail marketing channels while adding ~$125M annual adjusted EBITDA (on a fullrun-rate synergy basis)
- Mild July was offset by warm September (DFW warmest on record)
- Grew ERCOT customer count1organically as the integrated model supported disciplined margin strategy in a highly active customer market
- Top rated large REP on ERCOT PUC Complaint Scorecard
RETAIL VOLUME | |||||||||||
All markets (electric volumes in TWh) | 28.2 | ||||||||||
24.4 | |||||||||||
21.3 | 3.4 | ||||||||||
2.2 | 2.6 | ||||||||||
3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |||||||||
10.9 | 11.8 | 11.8 | |||||||||
7.1 | 7.4 | 7.4 | |||||||||
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2019 pro forma | |||||||||
Residential | Business | Muni-Aggregation | Crius | Ambit | |||||||
RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMER COUNTS2
All markets (in thousands) | ~2,800 | |
Includes | ||
2,029 | ~775 | ~775k |
residential | ||
1,540 | customers |
gained from | |
the Ambit | |
acquisition | |
2,029 |
ENERGY DEGREE DAYS
ERCOT North Central Zone
900
700
500
300
100
Sept energy degree days in the DFW area were 35% higher than normal
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 Q3 2019 pro forma |
- Core retail brands prior to Crius and Ambit acquisitions.
- Direct-to-consumerResidential counts excluding municipal-aggregation and international customers.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr Range ('09-'18) | 10-yr Avg. | 2019 | ||||
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 27 |
ASSET CLOSURE SEGMENT
Asset Closure cash flows forecast to decline meaningfully post -2022; forecast does not include optimization of cash expenditures and potential value from sales of property
Asset Closure Segment Adj. FCF Projections1
($ millions)
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
(190) - (170) (170) - (150) (210) - (190) (160) - (140) (110) - (90) (110) - (90) (100) - (80) (80) - (60) (100) - (80) (70) - (50)
Sites in Asset Closure Segment
• | Big Brown2 | • | Forest Grove | • | Morro Bay | • | South Bay |
• | Collin | • | Killen | • | Mountain Creek | • | Stallings |
• | Coffeen | • | Havana | • | NEPCO | • | Stuart |
• | Duck Creek | • | Hennepin | • | Oglesby | • | Wood River |
• | Eagle Mountain | • | Lake Creek | • | River Crest | • | Valley |
• | Edwards3 | • | Monticello2 | • | Sandow2 | • | Vermilion |
- Includes projected spend associated with five plants in MISO announced for retirement.
- Includes associated mines.
- Included after 2022.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 28 |
THIRD QUARTER GENERATION METRICS
TOTAL GENERATION | ||||
TWhs | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 20181 | YTD 2019 |
ERCOT | 26.2 | 26.2 | 63.7 | 65.2 |
PJM | 15.4 | 14.4 | 26.7 | 39.5 |
NY/NE | 6.0 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 13.6 |
MISO | 8.3 | 7.0 | 14.6 | 19.3 |
CAISO | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Ong. Ops | 57.5 | 53.9 | 116.7 | 141.1 |
Asset Closure | - | - | 1.5 | - |
COMMERCIAL AVAILABILITY
% | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 20181 | YTD 2019 | |||
ERCOT Gas | 98% | 94% | 98% | 94% | |||
ERCOT Coal | 99% | 99% | 97% | 97% | |||
PJM Gas | 99% | 100% | 98% | 98% | |||
PJM Coal | 83% | 78% | 81% | 82% | |||
NY/NE Gas | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | |||
MISO Coal | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | |||
CAISO Gas | 100% | 99% | 100% | 99% | |||
Total | 97% | 95% | 96% | 95% | |||
CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) | ||||
% | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 20181 | YTD 2019 |
ERCOT | 68% | 70% | 60% | 56% |
PJM | 68% | 76% | 67% | 70% |
NY/NE | 55% | 47% | 48% | 44% |
MISO | - | - | - | - |
CAISO | 71% | 59% | 45% | 53% |
CAPACITY FACTOR (COAL) | ||||
% | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 20181 | YTD 2019 |
ERCOT | 89% | 79% | 76% | 70% |
PJM | 70% | 51% | 60% | 51% |
NY/NE | - | - | - | - |
MISO | 58% | 61% | 59% | 56% |
CAISO | - | - | - | - |
CAPACITY FACTOR (NUCLEAR)
% | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 20181 | YTD 2019 | ||
ERCOT | 102% | 104% | 105% | 93% | ||
1Statistics forYTD 2018 include a full period contribution for legacy Vistra assets and Dynegy plant results from April 9 to June 30, 2018.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 29 |
HEDGE PROFILE & PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITIES
Effective: 9/30/2019
Balance of 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
ERCOT | PJM | NENY | MISO/ | TOTAL | ERCOT | PJM | NENY | MISO/ | TOTAL | |
CAISO | CAISO | |||||||||
Coal/Nuclear/Renewable Gen Position | ||||||||||
Expected Generation (TWh) | 13 | 3 | - | 6 | 23 | 50 | 19 | - | 17 | 86 |
% Hedged | 100% | 100% | - | 95% | 99% | 100% | 92% | - | 98% | 98% |
Net Position | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 2 |
Sensitivity: + $2.50/mwh ($M) | $1 | $1 | - | $2 | $4 | $3 | $5 | - | $2 | $10 |
- $2.50/mwh ($M) | $0 | $0 | - | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($2) | - | $0 | ($2) |
Gas Gen Position1 | ||||||||||
Expected Generation (TWh) | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 38 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 95 |
% Hedged | 94% | 95% | 100% | 98% | 95% | 59% | 65% | 78% | 83% | 66% |
Net Position | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
Sensitivity: + $1.00/mwh ($M) | $1 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $17 | $13 | $4 | $1 | $36 |
- $1.00/mwh ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($14) | ($12) | ($3) | ($1) | ($30) |
Natural Gas Position | ||||||||||
Net Position (Bcf) | 2 | (2) | (1) | 0 | (1) | (13) | (7) | (3) | (3) | (26) |
Sensitivity: + $0.25/mmbtu ($M) | $1 | ($1) | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($3) | ($2) | ($1) | ($1) | ($6) |
- $0.25/mmbtu ($M) | ($1) | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $6 |
ERCOT | PJM | NENY | MISO/ | TOTAL | ERCOT | PJM | NENY | MISO/ | TOTAL | |
CAISO | CAISO | |||||||||
Hedge Value vs Market2($M) | $11 | ($4) | ($8) | $13 | $11 | ($550) | $26 | ($18) | $17 | ($524) |
Premium/Discount vs Hub Price3($M) | $72 | $28 | ($15) | ($16) | $68 | $988 | $122 | ($6) | $1 | $1,105 |
Total Difference vs Market ($M) | $83 | $24 | ($23) | ($3) | $80 | $437 | $148 | ($23) | $18 | $580 |
Around-the-Clock (ATC) Hub Price4($/MWh) | $22.54 | $26.91 | $35.66 | $29.75 | $26.10 | $33.04 | $27.61 | $36.96 | $30.11 | $31.39 |
Premium/Discount vs Hub Price ($/MWh) | $3.41 | $1.79 | ($4.82) | ($0.39) | $1.59 | $4.95 | $2.72 | ($1.46) | $0.82 | $3.21 |
Total Realized Price ($/MWh) | $25.95 | $28.70 | $30.84 | $29.37 | $27.68 | $37.99 | $30.32 | $35.50 | $30.92 | $34.60 |
- 7.2 MWh/mmbtu Heat Rate.
- Hedge value as of 9/30/2019 and represents generation only (excludes retail).
- The forecasted premium over the Hub Price includes shape impact for estimated dispatch generation as compared to running ATC, plant basis vs hubs, and estimated value from incremental hedging activities.
- ERCOT: 90% North Hub, 10% West Hub; PJM: 60% AD Hub, 25% Ni Hub, 15% Western Hub; NENY: 75% Mass Hub, 25% NY Zone A; MISO/CAISO: 75% Indiana Hub, 25%NP-15.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 30 |
MARKET PRICING
Effective: 9/30/2019
Oct-Dec'19 | 2020 | Oct-Dec'19 | 2020 | |||||
Power (ATC, $/MWh) | Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) | |||||||
ERCOT North Hub | $22.74 | $33.22 | Approx. Contribution | |||||
ERCOT West Hub | $20.81 | $31.41 | ERCOT | |||||
PJM AD Hub | $28.10 | $28.53 | ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel | 90% | $3.55 | $13.91 | ||
PJM Ni Hub | $23.29 | $24.27 | ERCOT West Hub-Permian Basin | 10% | $7.44 | $20.59 | ||
PJM Western Hub | $28.20 | $29.46 | Weighted Average | $3.94 | $14.58 | |||
MISO Indiana Hub | $27.49 | $28.58 | ||||||
ISONE Mass Hub | $39.78 | $39.96 | PJM | |||||
New York Zone A | $23.30 | $27.95 | PJM AD Hub-Dominion South | 50% | $13.14 | $11.81 | ||
CAISO NP15 | $36.53 | $34.69 | PJM Ni Hub-Chicago Citygate | 25% | $4.38 | $4.90 | ||
PJM Western Hub-Tetco M3 | 25% | $8.64 | $6.50 | |||||
Gas ($/MMBtu) | Weighted Average | $9.83 | $8.76 | |||||
NYMEX | $2.42 | $2.42 | ||||||
Houston Ship Channel | $2.32 | $2.33 | NENY | |||||
Permian Basin | $1.51 | $1.15 | ISONE Mass Hub-Algonquin Citygate | 75% | $7.88 | $7.72 | ||
Dominion South | $1.73 | $1.98 | New York Zone A-Dominion South | 25% | $8.33 | $11.23 | ||
Chicago Citygate | $2.28 | $2.34 | Weighted Average | $8.00 | $8.60 | |||
Tetco M3 | $2.37 | $2.84 | ||||||
Algonquin Citygate | $4.08 | $4.13 | CAISO | |||||
PG&E Citygate | $3.04 | $2.78 | CAISO NP15-PG&E Citygate | $12.13 | $12.15 |
1Spark Spread calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 MWh/mmbtu with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs (market power price - (7.2 x gas price + VOM)).
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 31 |
MARKET PRICING - ERCOT
MONTHLY NORTH HUB ATC POWER PRICES
August 19
140 | $131.48 | ||||
120 | August 20 | ||||
($/MWh) | 100 | $98.83 | |||
80 | |||||
60 | $34.67 | ||||
40 | $26.58 | ||||
20 | |||||
- | |||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | ||
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
MONTHLY GAS PRICES (HSC)
5 | ||||
4 | ||||
($/mmBtu) | 3 | August 19 | August 20 | |
$2.10 | $2.32 | |||
2 | ||||
1 | ||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | |
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019
IMPLIED NORTH HUB ATC MARKET HEAT RATES
75 | August 19 | ||||
65 | 62.74 | ||||
(mmBtu/MWh) | 55 | August 20 | |||
42.65 | |||||
45 | |||||
35 | |||||
25 | |||||
15 | 9.28 | 11.53 | |||
5 | |||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | ||
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
YEARLY AVERAGE PRICES
NHUB | NHUB | Gas - HSC | PRB 8800 | |
ATC | ATC HR | |||
2017A | $23.3 | 7.8 | $2.97 | $11.7 |
2018A | $30.0 | 9.3 | $3.21 | $12.5 |
2019E | $35.9 | 14.5 | $2.48 | $12.3 |
2020F | $33.2 | 14.2 | $2.34 | $12.3 |
32
MARKET PRICING - OTHER MARKETS
MONTHLY AD HUB ATC POWER PRICES
60 | ||||
50 | ||||
($/MWh) | 40 | |||
30 | ||||
20 | ||||
10 | ||||
- | ||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | |
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
MONTHLY MASS HUB ATC POWER PRICES
120 | ||||
100 | ||||
($/MWh) | 80 | |||
60 | ||||
40 | ||||
20 | ||||
- | ||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | |
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
MONTHLY INDIANA HUB ATC POWER PRICES
60 | ||||
50 | ||||
($/MWh) | 40 | |||
30 | ||||
20 | ||||
10 | ||||
- | ||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | |
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
MONTHLY PJM WH ATC POWER PRICES
80 | ||||
70 | ||||
60 | ||||
($/MWh) | 50 | |||
40 | ||||
30 | ||||
20 | ||||
10 | ||||
- | ||||
2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020F | |
Settled | 6/28/2019 Forward | 9/30/2019 Forward |
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 33 |
CAPACITY POSITION - MISO
MISO Capacity Position (excludes PJM exports)
Price in $/kw-mo | Total | Capacity Revenue | |
PY 18/19 | |||
MWs | 2,571 | ||
Average Price | $3.24 | $100 MM | |
PY 19/20 | |||
MWs | 2,127 | ||
Average Price | $3.69 | $94 MM | |
PY 20/21 | |||
MWs | 1,809 | ||
Average Price | $3.79 | $82 MM | |
PY 21/22 | |||
MWs | 685 | ||
Average Price | $4.13 | $34 MM | |
MISO Exports to PJM Capacity Position
PJM Region | Planning Year | Average Price | MW Position | Average Price | MW Position |
($/MW-day) | ($/MW-day) | ||||
Legacy/Base Product | Capacity Performance Product | ||||
2018 - 2019 | $149.98 | 227 | $151.69 | 835 | |
RTO | 2019 - 2020 | $80.00 | 260 | $132.55 | 254 |
2020 - 2021 | - | - | $93.60 | 444 | |
2021 - 2022 | - | - | $252.45 | 415 | |
Note: Capacity positions represent volumes cleared and purchased in primary annual auctions, incremental auctions, and transitional auctions. Also includes bilateral transactions.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 34 |
CAPACITY POSITIONS - PJM (excludes MISO Imports)
PJM Region | Planning Year | Average Price | MW Position | Average Price | MW Position |
($/MW-day) | ($/MW-day) | ||||
Legacy/Base Product | Capacity Performance Product | ||||
2018 - 2019 | $199.39 | 948 | $165.13 | 4,599 | |
RTO | 2019 - 2020 | $179.49 | 520 | $126.87 | 4,797 |
2020 - 20211 | N/A | N/A | $93.37 | 4,989 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $140.00 | 5,090 | |
2018 - 2019 | $217.31 | 291 | $215.87 | 2,248 | |
ComEd | 2019 - 2020 | $207.93 | 275 | $207.15 | 2,219 |
2020 - 2021 | N/A | N/A | $190.80 | 2,509 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $199.67 | 2,514 | |
2018 - 2019 | $149.98 | 0 | $166.83 | 508 | |
MAAC | 2019 - 2020 | $80.00 | 0 | $127.21 | 515 |
2020 - 2021 | N/A | N/A | $116.74 | 547 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $150.95 | 548 | |
2018 - 2019 | $210.63 | 148 | $232.83 | 507 | |
EMAAC | 2019 - 2020 | $99.77 | -2 | $122.85 | 653 |
2020 - 2021 | N/A | N/A | $192.92 | 664 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $172.21 | 652 | |
2018 - 2019 | $149.98 | 0 | $164.77 | 195 | |
ATSI | 2019 - 2020 | $80.00 | 0 | $89.14 | 264 |
2020 - 2021 | N/A | N/A | $76.53 | 73 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $171.33 | 360 | |
2018 - 2019 | $104.70 | 32 | $164.77 | 0 | |
PPL | 2019 - 2020 | $149.38 | 24 | $100.00 | 0 |
2020 - 2021 | N/A | N/A | $86.04 | 0 | |
2021 - 2022 | N/A | N/A | $140.00 | 0 | |
1Includes DEOK zone which broke out from RTO at $130.00 $/MW-day; Note: PJM capacity position represent volumes cleared and purchased in primary annual auctions, incremental auctions, and transitional auctions. Also includes bilateral transactions.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 35 |
CAPACITY POSITIONS - ISO-NE / NYISO / CAISO
ISO/Region | Contract Type | Average Price | MW Position | Tenor |
ISO-NE1 | ISO-NE Capacity | $9.70/kw-Mo | 3,395 | June 2018 to May 2019 |
$6.91/kw-Mo | 3,307 | June 2019 to May 2020 | ||
$5.35/kw-Mo | 3,262 | June 2020 to May 2021 | ||
$4.58/kw-Mo | 3,109 | June 2021 to May 2022 | ||
$3.92/kw-Mo | 3,232 | June 2022 to May 2023 | ||
NYISO2,3 | NYISO Capacity | $1.31/kw-Mo | 1,138 | Winter 2018/2019 |
$2.07/kw-Mo | 950 | Summer 2019 | ||
$1.36/kw-Mo | 594 | Winter 2019/2020 | ||
$1.72/kw-Mo | 573 | Summer 2020 | ||
$1.17/kw-Mo | 206 | Winter 2020/2021 | ||
$2.99/kw-Mo | 32 | Summer 2021 | ||
$3.08/kw-Mo | 7 | Winter 2021/2022 | ||
CAISO | RA Capacity | 923 | Cal 2019 | |
985 | Cal 2020 | |||
- ISO-NErepresents capacity auction results, supplemental auctions, and bilateral capacity sales.
- NYISO represents capacity auction results and bilateral capacity sales.
- Winter period covers November through April and Summer period covers May through October.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 36 |
ASSET FLEET DETAILS
Asset | Location | ISO | Technology | Primary Fuel | Net Capacity | Ownership Interest |
Moss Landing 1 & 2 | Moss Landing, CA | CAISO | CCGT | Gas | 1,020 | 100% |
Oakland | Oakland, CA | CAISO | CT | Oil | 165 | 100 |
TOTAL CAISO | 1,185 | |||||
Forney | Forney, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 1,912 | 100% |
Lamar | Paris, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 1,076 | 100 |
Odessa | Odessa, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 1,054 | 100 |
Ennis | Ennis, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 366 | 100 |
Hays | San Marcos, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 1,047 | 100 |
Midlothian | Midlothian, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 1,596 | 100 |
Wise | Poolville, TX | ERCOT | CCGT | Gas | 787 | 100 |
Martin Lake | Tatum, TX | ERCOT | ST | Coal | 2,250 | 100 |
Oak Grove | Franklin, TX | ERCOT | ST | Coal | 1,600 | 100 |
Coleto Creek | Goliad, TX | ERCOT | ST | Coal | 650 | 100 |
Decordova | Granbury, TX | ERCOT | CT | Gas | 260 | 100 |
Graham | Graham, TX | ERCOT | ST | Gas | 630 | 100 |
Lake Hubbard | Dallas, TX | ERCOT | ST | Gas | 921 | 100 |
Morgan Creek | Colorado City, TX | ERCOT | CT | Gas | 390 | 100 |
Permian Basin | Monahans, TX | ERCOT | CT | Gas | 325 | 100 |
Stryker Creek | Rusk, TX | ERCOT | ST | Gas | 685 | 100 |
Trinidad | Trinidad, TX | ERCOT | ST | Gas | 244 | 100 |
Wharton | Boling, TX | ERCOT | CT | Gas | 83 | 100 |
Comanche Peak | Glen Rose, TX | ERCOT | Nuclear | Nuclear | 2,300 | 100 |
Upton 2 | Upton County, TX | ERCOT | Solar/Battery | Solar/Battery | 180 | 100 |
TOTAL ERCOT | 18,356 | |||||
Baldwin | Baldwin, IL | MISO | ST | Coal | 1,185 | 100% |
Duck Creek | Canton, IL | MISO / PJM | ST | Coal | 425 | 100 |
Edwards | Bartonville, IL | MISO / PJM | ST | Coal | 585 | 100 |
Newton | Newton, IL | MISO / PJM | ST | Coal | 615 | 100 |
Joppa/EEI | Joppa, IL | MISO | ST | Coal | 802 | 80 |
Joppa CT 1-3 | Joppa, IL | MISO | CT | Gas | 165 | 100 |
Joppa CT 4-5 | Joppa, IL | MISO | CT | Gas | 56 | 80 |
TOTAL MISO | 3,833 |
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 37 |
ASSET FLEET DETAILS (CONT'D)
Asset | Location | ISO | Technology | Primary Fuel | Net Capacity | Ownership Interest | |
Independence | Oswego, NY | NYISO | CCGT | Gas | 1,212 | 100% | |
TOTAL NYISO | 1,212 | ||||||
Bellingham | Bellingham, MA | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 566 | 100% | |
Bellingham NEA | Bellingham, MA | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 157 | 50 | |
Blackstone | Blackstone, MA | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 544 | 100 | |
Casco Bay | Veazie, ME | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 543 | 100 | |
Lake Road | Dayville, CT | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 827 | 100 | |
MASSPOWER | Indian Orchard, MA | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 281 | 100 | |
Milford | Milford,CT | ISO-NE | CCGT | Gas | 600 | 100 | |
TOTAL ISO-NE | 3,518 | ||||||
Fayette | Masontown, PA | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 726 | 100% | |
Hanging Rock | Ironton, OH | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 1,430 | 100 | |
Hopewell | Hopewell, VA | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 370 | 100 | |
Kendall | Minooka, IL | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 1,288 | 100 | |
Liberty | Eddystone, PA | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 607 | 100 | |
Ontelaunee | Reading, PA | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 600 | 100 | |
Sayreville | Sayreville, NJ | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 170 | 50 | |
Washington | Beverly, OH | PJM | CCGT | Gas | 711 | 100 | |
Kincaid | Kincaid, IL | PJM | ST | Coal | 1,108 | 100 | |
Miami Fort 7 & 8 | North Bend, OH | PJM | ST | Coal | 1,020 | 100 | |
Zimmer | Moscow, OH | PJM | ST | Coal | 1,300 | 100 | |
Calumet | Chicago, IL | PJM | CT | Gas | 380 | 100 | |
Dicks Creek | Monroe, OH | PJM | CT | Gas | 155 | 100 | |
Miami Fort (CT) | North Bend, OH | PJM | CT | Oil | 77 | 100 | |
Pleasants | Saint Marys, WV | PJM | CT | Gas | 388 | 100 | |
Richland | Defiance, OH | PJM | CT | Gas | 423 | 100 | |
Stryker | Stryker, OH | PJM | CT | Oil | 16 | 100 | |
TOTAL PJM | 10,769 | ||||||
TOTAL CAPACITY | 38,873 |
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 38 |
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - Q3 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2019
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Eliminations/ | Ongoing | Vistra Energy | |||||||
Retail | ERCOT | PJM | NY/NE | MISO | Corp and | Operations | Asset Closure | ||
Consolidated | |||||||||
Other | Consolidated | ||||||||
Net Income (loss) | 573 | (10) | (62) | 21 | (88) | (312) | 122 | (8) | 114 |
Income tax expense | - | - | - | - | - | 45 | 45 | - | 45 |
Interest expense and related | 8 | (2) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 213 | 224 | - | 224 |
charges (a) | |||||||||
Depreciation and | 86 | 146 | 135 | 51 | 5 | 21 | 444 | - | 444 |
amortization (b) | |||||||||
EBITDA before adjustments | 667 | 134 | 75 | 73 | (81) | (33) | 835 | (8) | 827 |
Unrealized net (gain) loss | |||||||||
resulting from hedging | (769) | 682 | 139 | 5 | 43 | (21) | 79 | - | 79 |
transactions | |||||||||
Generation plant retirement | - | - | - | - | 47 | - | 47 | 2 | 49 |
expenses | |||||||||
Fresh start/purchase | (12) | - | 3 | - | 2 | (1) | (8) | - | (8) |
accounting impacts | |||||||||
Impacts of Tax Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | 62 | 62 | - | 62 |
Agreement | |||||||||
Non-cash compensation | - | - | - | - | - | 12 | 12 | - | 12 |
expenses | |||||||||
Transition and merger | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 38 |
expenses | |||||||||
Other, net | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | (1) | (10) | - | 1 | 1 |
Adjusted EBITDA | (87) | 823 | 222 | 81 | 11 | 14 | 1,064 | (4) | 1,060 |
- Includes $76 million of unrealizedmark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps.
- Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $20 million in the ERCOT segment.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 39 |
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - YTD 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2019
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Eliminations/ | Ongoing | Vistra Energy | |||||||
Retail | ERCOT | PJM | NY/NE | MISO | Corp and | Operations | Asset Closure | ||
Consolidated | |||||||||
Other | Consolidated | ||||||||
Net Income (loss) | 3 | 1,346 | 283 | 122 | (42) | (983) | 729 | (37) | 692 |
Income tax expense | - | - | - | - | - | 270 | 270 | - | 270 |
Interest expense and related | 16 | (7) | 8 | 2 | 5 | 696 | 720 | - | 720 |
charges (a) | |||||||||
Depreciation and | 204 | 438 | 399 | 155 | 11 | 59 | 1,266 | - | 1,266 |
amortization (b) | |||||||||
EBITDA before adjustments | 223 | 1,777 | 690 | 279 | (26) | 42 | 2,985 | (37) | 2,948 |
Unrealized net (gain) loss | |||||||||
resulting from hedging | 192 | (616) | (115) | (33) | (8) | (45) | (625) | - | (625) |
transactions | |||||||||
Generation plant retirement | - | - | - | - | 47 | - | 47 | 2 | 49 |
expenses | |||||||||
Fresh start/purchase | 17 | - | (2) | 3 | 11 | (3) | 26 | - | 26 |
accounting impacts | |||||||||
Impacts of Tax Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | 26 | 26 | - | 26 |
Agreement | |||||||||
Non-cash compensation | - | - | - | - | - | 36 | 36 | - | 36 |
expenses | |||||||||
Transition and merger | 24 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 82 | - | 82 |
expenses | |||||||||
Other, net | 7 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 10 | (39) | 9 | 3 | 12 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 463 | 1,183 | 590 | 258 | 59 | 33 | 2,586 | (32) | 2,554 |
- Includes $275 million of unrealizedmark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps.
- Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $53 million in the ERCOT segment.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 40 |
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - Q3 2018 ADJUSTED EBITDA
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Eliminations/ | Ongoing | Vistra Energy | |||||||
Retail | ERCOT | PJM | NY/NE | MISO | Corp and | Operations | Asset Closure | ||
Other | Consolidated | Consolidated | |||||||
Net Income (loss) | (86) | 643 | 62 | 47 | (3) | (328) | 335 | (4) | 331 |
Income tax benefit | - | - | - | - | - | 194 | 194 | - | 194 |
Interest expense and related | 3 | (2) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 154 | - | 154 |
charges (a) | |||||||||
Depreciation and | 80 | 142 | 141 | 55 | 3 | 25 | 446 | - | 446 |
amortization (b) | |||||||||
EBITDA before adjustments | (3) | 783 | 206 | 103 | 1 | 39 | 1,129 | (4) | 1,125 |
Unrealized net (gain) loss | |||||||||
resulting from hedging | 154 | (195) | 21 | - | 32 | (4) | 8 | - | 8 |
transactions | |||||||||
Fresh start/purchase | (15) | - | (1) | 5 | 3 | - | (8) | - | (8) |
accounting impacts | |||||||||
Impacts of Tax Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | (17) | (17) | - | (17) |
Agreement | |||||||||
Non-cash compensation | - | - | - | - | - | 14 | 14 | - | 14 |
expenses | |||||||||
Transition and merger | - | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 | - | 19 |
expenses | |||||||||
Other, net | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | (16) | 8 | (8) | - |
Adjusted EBITDA | 141 | 597 | 240 | 111 | 39 | 25 | 1,153 | (12) | 1,141 |
- Includes $38 million of unrealizedmark-to-market net gains on interest rate swaps.
- Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $20 million in the ERCOT segment.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 41 |
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - YTD 2018 ADJUSTED EBITDA
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Eliminations/ | Ongoing | Vistra Energy | |||||||
Retail | ERCOT | PJM | NY/NE | MISO | Corp and | Operations | Asset Closure | ||
Other | Consolidated | Consolidated | |||||||
Net Income (loss) | 397 | 236 | 86 | 41 | 29 | (635) | 154 | (24) | 130 |
Income tax benefit | - | - | - | - | - | 31 | 31 | - | 31 |
Interest expense and related | 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 291 | - | 291 |
charges (a) | |||||||||
Depreciation and | 237 | 355 | 266 | 104 | 6 | 59 | 1027 | - | 1027 |
amortization (b) | |||||||||
EBITDA before adjustments | 637 | 604 | 357 | 146 | 36 | (277) | 1,503 | (24) | 1,479 |
Unrealized net (gain) loss | |||||||||
resulting from hedging | (38) | 207 | 20 | 22 | - | (4) | 207 | - | 207 |
transactions | |||||||||
Fresh start/purchase | 12 | (4) | (2) | 9 | 11 | - | 26 | - | 26 |
accounting impacts | |||||||||
Impacts of Tax Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | 65 | 65 | - | 65 |
Agreement | |||||||||
Non-cash compensation | - | - | - | - | - | 62 | 62 | - | 62 |
expenses | |||||||||
Transition and merger | - | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 183 | 203 | 2 | 205 |
expenses | |||||||||
Other, net | (16) | (5) | 12 | 7 | 5 | - | 3 | (7) | (4) |
Adjusted EBITDA | 595 | 809 | 394 | 185 | 57 | 29 | 2,069 | (29) | 2,040 |
- Includes $123 million of unrealizedmark-to-market net gains on interest rate swaps.
- Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $60 million in the ERCOT segment.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 42 |
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - 2019 GUIDANCE
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2019 GUIDANCE
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Ongoing Operations | Asset Closure | Vistra Energy Consolidated | |||||||
Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||||
Net Income (loss) | 865 | 940 | (109) | (89) | 756 | 851 | |||
Income tax expense | 248 | 273 | - | - | 248 | 273 | |||
Interest expense and related charges (a) | 868 | 868 | - | - | 868 | 868 | |||
Depreciation and amortization (b) | 1,660 | 1,660 | - | - | 1,660 | 1,660 | |||
EBITDA before adjustments | 3,641 | 3,741 | (109) | (89) | 3,532 | 3,652 | |||
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from hedging transactions | (592) | (592) | - | - | (592) | (592) | |||
Generation plant retirement impacts | 46 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 49 | |||
Fresh start/purchase accounting impacts | 35 | 35 | - | - | 35 | 35 | |||
Impacts of Tax Receivable Agreement | 41 | 41 | - | - | 41 | 41 | |||
Non-cash compensation expenses | 48 | 48 | - | - | 48 | 48 | |||
Transition and merger expenses | 90 | 90 | - | - | 90 | 90 | |||
Other, net | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA | 3,320 | 3,420 | (105) | (85) | 3,215 | 3,335 | |||
Interest paid, net | (517) | (517) | - | - | (517) | (517) | |||
Tax (paid) / received (c) | (18) | (18) | - | - | (18) | (18) | |||
Tax receivable agreement payments | (2) | (2) | - | - | (2) | (2) | |||
Working capital and margin deposits | 33 | 33 | (4) | (4) | 29 | 29 | |||
Reclamation and remediation | (59) | (59) | (82) | (82) | (141) | (141) | |||
Other changes in operating assets and liabilities | (143) | (143) | 13 | 13 | (130) | (130) | |||
Cash provided by operating activities | 2,614 | 2714 | (178) | (158) | 2,436 | 2,556 | |||
Capital expenditures including nuclear fuel purchases and | (603) | (603) | - | - | (603) | (603) | |||
LTSA prepayments | |||||||||
Solar and Moss Landing development and other growth | (96) | (96) | - | - | (96) | (96) | |||
expenditures | |||||||||
Acquisitions | (849) | (849) | - | - | (849) | (849) | |||
(Purchase) sale of environmental credits and allowances | (73) | (73) | - | - | (73) | (73) | |||
Other net investing activities | (19) | (19) | 4 | 4 | (15) | (15) | |||
Free cash flow | 974 | 1,074 | (174) | (154) | 800 | 920 | |||
Working capital and margin deposits | (33) | (33) | 4 | 4 | (29) | (29) | |||
Solar and Moss Landing development and other growth | 96 | 96 | - | - | 96 | 96 | |||
expenditures | |||||||||
Acquisitions | 849 | 849 | - | - | 849 | 849 | |||
Purchase (sale) of environmental credits and allowances | 73 | 73 | - | - | 73 | 73 | |||
Generation plant retirement expenses | 22 | 22 | - | - | 22 | 22 | |||
Transition and merger expenses | 181 | 181 | - | - | 181 | 181 | |||
Transition capital expenditures | 38 | 38 | - | - | 38 | 38 | |||
Adjusted free cash flow before growth | 2,200 | 2,300 | (170) | (150) | 2,030 | 2,150 | |||
(a) Includes unrealized loss on interest rate swaps of $317 million. (b) Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $77 million. | (c) Includes state tax payments. | ||||||||
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 43 | ||||||||
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - 2020 GUIDANCE
VISTRA ENERGY CORP. - NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2020 GUIDANCE
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Ongoing Operations | Asset Closure | Vistra Energy Consolidated | ||||
Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | |
Net Income (loss) | 849 | 1,081 | (95) | (75) | 754 | 1,006 |
Income tax expense | 252 | 320 | - | - | 252 | 320 |
Interest expense and related charges (a) | 463 | 463 | - | - | 463 | 463 |
Depreciation and amortization (b) | 1,600 | 1,600 | - | - | 1,600 | 1,600 |
EBITDA before adjustments | 3,164 | 3,464 | (95) | (75) | 3,069 | 3,389 |
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from hedging transactions | (29) | (29) | - | - | (29) | (29) |
Impacts of Tax Receivable Agreement | 69 | 69 | - | - | 69 | 69 |
Non-cash compensation expenses | 44 | 44 | - | - | 44 | 44 |
Transition and merger expenses | 35 | 35 | - | - | 35 | 35 |
Other, net | 2 | 2 | - | - | 2 | 2 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 3,285 | 3,585 | (95) | (75) | 3,190 | 3,510 |
Interest paid, net | (543) | (543) | - | - | (543) | (543) |
Tax (paid) / received (c) | 153 | 153 | - | - | 153 | 153 |
Tax receivable agreement payments | (3) | (3) | - | - | (3) | (3) |
Working capital and margin deposits | 2 | 2 | - | - | 2 | 2 |
Reclamation and remediation | (60) | (60) | (126) | (126) | (186) | (186) |
Other changes in operating assets and liabilities | (80) | (80) | 31 | 31 | (49) | (49) |
Cash provided by operating activities | 2,754 | 3,054 | (190) | (170) | 2,564 | 2,884 |
Capital expenditures including nuclear fuel purchases and | (613) | (613) | - | - | (613) | (613) |
LTSA prepayments | ||||||
Solar and Moss Landing development and other growth | (315) | (315) | - | - | (315) | (315) |
expenditures | ||||||
(Purchase) sale of environmental credits and allowances | (39) | (39) | - | - | (39) | (39) |
Other net investing activities | (20) | (20) | - | - | (20) | (20) |
Free cash flow | 1,767 | 2,067 | (190) | (170) | 1,577 | 1,897 |
Working capital and margin deposits | (2) | (2) | - | - | (2) | (2) |
Moss Landing development and other growth expenditures | 315 | 315 | - | - | 315 | 315 |
Purchase (sale) of environmental credits and allowances | 39 | 39 | - | - | 39 | 39 |
Transition and merger expenses | 38 | 38 | - | - | 38 | 38 |
Transition capital expenditures | 3 | 3 | - | - | 3 | 3 |
Adjusted free cash flow before growth | 2,160 | 2,460 | (190) | (170) | 1,970 | 2,290 |
- Includes unrealized loss on interest rate swaps of $21 million.
- Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $77 million.
- Includes state tax payments.
Vistra Energy Investor Presentation /Q3 2019 | 44 |
END SLIDE
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Vistra Energy Corporation published this content on 05 November 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 05 November 2019 11:49:06 UTC