Terna S p A : Monthly Report 30/09/2023

Monthly Report on the Electricity System September 2023

Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy

Balance

Sheets

page 5

Electricity System

page 13

Electricity Market

page 18

In September, electricity demand was 26,174 GWh, a slight increase compared to the same month of the previous year (+0.5%) and down on September 2021 (-3.0%). There was also an increase in foreign exchange (+1.4%) compared to the same month in 2022. In 2023, electricity demand (232,456 GWh) increased compared to the same period in 2022 (-4.0%) and compared to the cumulative figure for 2021 (-2.9%).

The value of electricity demand was achieved with one less working day (21 vs 22), and with an average monthly temperature that was 1.2°C higher compared to September of last year. When adjusted for seasonal, temperature and calendar effects, the figure represents a +0.2% variation.

The annual trend for September 2023 (compared to September 2022) for the industrial electricity consumption index was negative (-0.9%) with adjusted and raw data.

In September 2023, 47.6% of the electricity demand was met via production from Non- Renewable Energy Sources, 38.4% via Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign exchange. In 2023, electricity demand was 232,456 GWh, 46.8% of which was met via production from Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 37.1% from Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder from the foreign balance. In September, production from Renewable Energy Sources increased compared to the same month the previous year (+25.7%). Specifically, there was an increase in renewable hydroelectric production (+74.7%) and photovoltaic production (+24.7%) and a decrease in wind production (-4.4%).

In 2023 the operating capacity of renewables increased by 3,911 MW. This value is 1,900 MW higher (+95%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

The September total for withdrawal

programmes on the DAM was approximately €2.8 billion, up 6% compared to the previous month and down 73% compared to September 2022.

In September 2023, the spread between average bid-up and bid-down prices on the DSM was €93/MWh, down by 25% compared to the previous month and down by 67% compared to September 2022. Total volumes decreased compared to the previous month (-22%).

In September, the spread between bid-up and bid-down prices on the Balancing Market was €149/MWh, down 22% on August (€191/MWh) and September 2022 (€454/MWh; -67%). Total volumes were down compared to August (-27%).

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

Monthly Summary and Short-Term Analysis

In September, electricity demand was 26,174 GWh, a slight increase compared to the same month of the previous year (+0.5%) and down on September 2021 (-3.0%). There was also an increase in foreign exchange (+1.4%) compared to the same month in 2022.

In 2023, electricity demand (232,456 GWh) increased compared to the same period in 2022 (-4.0%) and compared to the cumulative figure for 2021 (-2.9%).

Demand breakdown - coverage by sources

[GWh]	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	%23/22	Jan-Sep 23	Jan-Sep 22	%23/22

In September 2023, a decrease in thermal production (-12.6%) and

Renewable Hydro

Pumping Production(2)

Thermal

of which Biomass of which Hard Coal

Geothermal

Wind

Photovoltaic

Net Total Production

Pumping

Net Total Production for Consumption

of which RES (3) of which not RES

Import

Export

Net Foreign Exchange

Electricity demand(1)

3,610	2,067	74.7%	27,956	21,631	29.2%
100	158	-36.7%	1,170	1,365	-14.3%
13,859	15,859	-12.6%	121,827	145,382	-16.2%
1,353	1,362	-0.7%	12,414	12,910	-3.8%
914	1,861	-50.9%	10,650	15,174	-29.8%
445	440	1.1%	3,985	4,085	-2.4%
1,648	1,724	-4.4%	16,086	15,603	3.1%
2,995	2,402	24.7%	25,692	23,440	9.6%
22,657	22,650	0.0%	196,716	211,506	-7.0%
143	226	-36.7%	1,671	1,950	-14.3%
22,514	22,424	0.4%	195,045	209,556	-6.9%
10,051	7,995	25.7%	86,133	77,669	10.9%
12,463	14,429	-13.6%	108,912	131,887	-17.4%
3,908	3,897	0.3%	39,852	35,508	12.2%
248	289	-14.2%	2,441	2,930	-16.7%
3,660	3,608	1.4%	37,411	32,578	14.8%
26,174	26,032	0.5%	232,456	242,134	-4.0%

in wind production (-4.4%) was recorded, and there was an increase in photovoltaic production (+24.7%) and in renewable hydroelectric production (+74.7%), compared to the same month of the previous year.

In 2023, there was a change in exports, which dropped (-16.7%) compared to 2022.

The trend of total net production allocated for consumption in September was slightly upward (+0.4%)

compared to the same period in 2022

1. Electricity Demand = Net Total Production for Consumption + Foreign Balance
2. Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase
3. RES Production = Renewable Hydro + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic -

Source: Terna

The value of electricity demand was achieved with one less working day (21 vs 22), and with an average monthly temperature that was 1.2°C higher compared to September of last year. When adjusted for seasonal, temperature and calendar effects, the figure represents a +0.2% variation.

In the first nine months of the year, national demand decreased by 4.0% compared to the corresponding period in 2022 (-3.0% adjusted value).

The data for September 2023, adjusted for calendar and temperature effects, recorded a decrease in electricity demand compared to August 2023 (-0.5%).

Demand - seasonality adjusted

The value, adjusted for seasonal, calendar and temperature effects, shows negative cyclical change (-0.5%).

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

IMCEI

The trend for September 2023 (compared to September 2022) was negative (-0.9%) based on raw data. Using data adjusted for calendar differences, there is no change. In the first nine months of 2023, industrial electricity consumption decreased by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2022.

IMCEI short-term analysis (2015 base = 100)

In September, the variation in the monthly index of Italian electricity consumption decreased compared to September 2022

Source: Terna

The September 2023 data, adjusted for seasonal, calendar and temperature effects, for the industrial electricity consumption index, increased (+3.2%) compared to August.

Monthly Industrial Electrical Consumption Index - IMCEI (2015 base = 100)

When adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the monthly figure for September 2023 increased compared to the previous month

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

Energy Demand Mix

In September 2023, 47.6% of the electricity demand was met by production from Non- Renewable Energy Sources, 38.4% from Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign exchange.

In 2023, electricity demand was 232,456 GWh, 46.8% of which was met via production from Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 37.1% from Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder from the foreign balance.

Demand breakdown - coverage by sources

Coverage of demand from renewable sources grew from 30.7% in September 2022 to 38.4% in September 2023

In 2023 coverage of demand from non- renewables fell from 54.5% in 2022 to 46.8% in 2023

Source: Terna

2023 trend in demand breakdown and difference from 2022 and 2021

In 2023, electricity demand on the grid is lower than 2022 (-4.0%) and down compared to the cumulative figure for 2021 (-2.9%).

In 2023, energy production from renewable sources totalled 86.1 TWh, an increase compared to 2022 (+10.9%)

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

Details of Renewable Energy Sources

In September, production from Renewable Energy Sources increased compared to the same month the previous year (+25.7%). Specifically, there was an increase in renewable hydroelectric production (+74.7%) and photovoltaic production (+24.7%) and a decrease in wind production (-4.4%).

RES Production - Breakdown

In September 2023, the greater contribution of renewable energy sources to the total is attributed to renewable hydroelectric production (35.9%) and photovoltaic production (29.8%)

In 2023 contribution from renewable hydroelectric production increased while the contribution from the other sources decreased overall compared to 2022

Source: Terna

2023 trend in net production from RES and difference from 2022

In September 2023, production from RES represented 44.4% of total net national production, an increase compared to the same month in 2022 (35.3%). In 2023, production from RES represented 43.8% of total net national production, an increase compared to the cumulative figure for 2022 (36.7%)

Source: Terna

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

Historical Energy Balance Sheets

In 2023, total net production allocated for consumption (195,045 GWh) met 83.9% of national electricity demand (232,456 GWh).

2023 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

	[GWh]	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
	Renewable Hydro	2,081	1,581	1,658	1,581	4,190	4,902	4,445	3,908	3,610				27,956
	Pumping Production (2)	137	99	172	168	135	95	104	160	100				1,170
	Thermal	15,569	14,866	14,712	11,307	10,915	12,330	15,667	12,602	13,859				121,827
	of which Biomass	1,463	1,368	1,471	1,245	1,309	1,361	1,429	1,415	1,353				12,414
	of which Hard Coal	2,295	1,868	1,881	202	561	1,226	1,041	662	914				10,650
	Geothermal	458	414	442	442	462	436	447	439	445				3,985
	Wind	2,277	1,802	2,547	2,165	1,515	1,036	1,354	1,742	1,648				16,086
	Photovoltaic	1,095	1,734	2,665	3,105	2,929	3,537	3,886	3,746	2,995				25,692
	Net Total Production	21,617	20,496	22,196	18,768	20,146	22,336	25,903	22,597	22,657				196,716
	Pumping	195	142	246	240	193	136	148	228	143				1,671
	Net Total Production for Consumption	21,422	20,354	21,950	18,528	19,953	22,200	25,755	22,369	22,514				195,045
	of which RES (3)	7,374	6,898	8,783	8,538	10,405	11,272	11,561	11,250	10,051				86,133
	of which not RES	14,048	13,456	13,167	9,990	9,548	10,928	14,194	11,119	12,463				108,912
	Import	5,080	4,944	4,445	5,005	4,616	3,546	4,651	3,657	3,908				39,852
	Export	352	233	188	170	275	314	323	338	248				2,441
	Net Foreign Exchange	4,728	4,711	4,257	4,835	4,341	3,232	4,328	3,319	3,660				37,411
	Electricity demand (1)	26,150	25,065	26,207	23,363	24,294	25,432	30,083	25,688	26,174				232,456

In 2023, net total production was down (-7.0%) compared to the same period in 2022, and peak electricity demand was reached in July, with 30,083 GWh

Source: Terna

The developments in the monthly balance sheet for 2022 are provided below.

2022 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

	[GWh]	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
	Renewable Hydro	2,335	1,562	1,459	1,698	3,140	3,405	3,357	2,609	2,067	1,785	2,243	2,299	27,959
	Pumping Production (2)	117	165	181	176	146	102	165	156	158	148	139	122	1,773
	Thermal	18,298	16,210	17,911	13,688	13,608	15,813	18,138	15,857	15,859	15,853	14,986	17,066	193,287
	of which Biomass	1,537	1,435	1,548	1,395	1,404	1,361	1,429	1,440	1,362	1,401	1,397	1,412	17,120
	of which Hard Coal	1,315	1,729	1,833	1,366	1,566	1,827	2,130	1,547	1,861	1,774	1,659	2,161	20,768
	Geothermal	479	435	474	457	461	429	454	456	440	457	442	460	5,444
	Wind	2,544	2,261	2,032	2,391	1,132	1,281	1,027	1,211	1,724	1,080	1,955	1,720	20,358
	Photovoltaic	1,272	1,697	2,316	2,842	3,097	3,216	3,471	3,127	2,402	2,087	1,207	818	27,552
	Net Total Production	25,045	22,330	24,373	21,252	21,584	24,245	26,611	23,416	22,650	21,410	20,972	22,485	276,373
	Pumping	167	236	259	251	208	145	235	223	226	211	198	174	2,533
	Net Total Production for Consumption	24,878	22,094	24,114	21,001	21,376	24,100	26,376	23,193	22,424	21,199	20,774	22,311	273,840
	of which RES (3)	8,167	7,390	7,829	8,783	9,234	9,692	9,737	8,843	7,995	6,810	7,244	6,709	98,433
	of which not RES	16,711	14,704	16,285	12,218	12,142	14,409	16,639	14,350	14,429	14,389	13,530	15,602	175,407
	Import	3,184	3,923	3,719	3,832	4,774	4,064	4,956	3,159	3,897	4,008	4,552	3,323	47,391
	Export	643	392	239	412	214	159	211	371	289	474	339	661	4,404
	Net Foreign Exchange	2,541	3,531	3,480	3,420	4,560	3,905	4,745	2,788	3,608	3,534	4,213	2,662	42,987
	Electricity demand (1)	27,419	25,625	27,594	24,421	25,936	28,005	31,121	25,981	26,032	24,733	24,987	24,973	316,827

Source: Terna

1. Electricity Demand = Net Total Production for Consumption + Foreign Balance
2. Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase
3. RES Production = Renewable Hydro + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic

In 2022, the month with the highest demand for electricity was July, with 31,121 GWh

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Monthly Report on the Electricity System

September 2023

Energy Balance Sheets

Demand by Operational Area

In September 2023, demand increased in the Northern zone (TO-MI-VE), and in the Southern zone (NA) while it decreased in the Centre (RM-FI) and on the Islands (PA-CA) compared to the same period of the previous year.

Demand by Operational Area

[GWh]	Turin	Milan	Venice	Florence	Rome	Naples	Palermo	Cagliari
September 2023	2,489	5,608	4,039	4,022	3,678	3,927	1,691	720
September 2022	2,586	5,251	4,014	4,291	3,663	3,788	1,701	738
% September 23/22	-3.8%	6.8%	0.6%	-6.3%	0.4%	3.7%	-0.6%	-2.4%
Cumulated 2023	22,890	49,180	35,453	35,950	33,055	34,640	14,791	6,497
Cumulated 2022	24,037	51,099	37,180	38,370	34,441	35,539	14,558	6,910
% Cumulated 23/22	-4.8%	-3.8%	-4.6%	-6.3%	-4.0%	-2.5%	1.6%	-6.0%

In 2023, the Y-o-Y percentage change in demand was -4.3% in the North, -5.2% in the Centre, -2.5% in the South and -0.8% on the Islands

Source: Terna

Demand by Operational Area - Map Chart

[GWh]

The regions are combined in clusters on the	5,608
basis of production and consumption:
•	TURIN: Piedmont - Liguria - Valle d'Aosta	2,489

• MILAN: Lombardy (*)

4,039

• VENICE: Friuli Venezia Giulia - Greater Venice - Trentino Alto Adige
• FLORENCE: Emilia Romagna (*) -

Tuscany

4,022

• ROME: Lazio - Umbria - Abruzzo - Molise - April
• NAPLES: Campania - Apulia - Basilicata - Calabria

•	PALERMO: Sicily	3,678
•	CAGLIARI: Sardinia

3,927

720

1,691

Source: Terna

1. In these two regions, the geographical borders do not correspond to the electrical borders. Lombardy includes production plants that are part of the geographical administrative territory of Emilia Romagna.

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