MUNICH (dpa-AFX) - Geopolitical conflicts are becoming a major driver of global cyber threats, according to reinsurer Munich Re. Experts at the Munich-based DAX-listed group say these risks include targeted hacking attacks on critical infrastructure, attacks on free elections and attempts at destabilization and disinformation. Geopolitical conflicts and global power plays increased the likelihood of "a systemic, catastrophic cyber event," according to a paper published Friday.

"All future geostrategic conflicts, including 'hot wars,' will have a cyber component," said Martin Kreuzer, the firm's cyber risk specialist. "The converse is that cybersecurity issues will be increasingly driven by geopolitical realities." Munich Re did not accuse any state by name in its statement. Publications by other experts in the U.S. and Europe frequently mention Russia and China.

The background to the analysis is that assessing hazards of all kinds is part of the basics of risk calculation in insurance business. Munich Re assumes that state-developed technology and procedures for cyber attacks will fall into the hands of ordinary hackers.

"Investments by nation states in research and development of their cyber activities will sooner or later have an impact on the commercial cybercrime sector," Kreuzer said. "We experts expect to see an increasing convergence of methods between nation-state actors and private cybercriminals."

That's because geopolitical disputes and wars will increasingly involve more than just states and their armies, according to Munich Re. The Ukraine war is "virtually a blueprint for future developments," the risk manager said. "The multi-layered nature of the actors in this war is new. There are volunteers playing a role, there are cybercriminals playing a role, there are legacy state institutions like Russian intelligence playing a role, all the way down to individuals and companies." Kreuzer cited U.S. entrepreneur Elon Musk's Starlink network, which is being used by Ukraine, as an example.

Kreuzer said there are discussions among insurers and governments about how to mitigate the financial fallout from possible state hacking attacks. "War is not insurable, and that includes cyberattacks," Kreuzer said.

"It's the government's job to step in and mitigate, if necessary, the consequences of war on the population and the economy. But we are in discussions with governments to create pool solutions for that purpose." A shift in thinking is taking place among governments, he said. "The U.S. government has included such considerations in its national cyber strategy, and the insurance industry is also in exchange with the EU," Kreuzer said.

Currently, however, Kreuzer said commercial cybercrime is far more significant for businesses and citizens. The cyber expert expects extortion using malicious encryption software to continue to flourish.

"The biggest malware driver is still ransomware, and ransomware attacks will remain the most profitable sector for criminals." Professionalization continues to advance, he said. "Artificial intelligence is also being used by criminals, for example to increase the level of automation of attacks or to target victims even more specifically."

Munich Re advises companies to think about protective measures before they purchase a new computer system or new machines, rather than after they go live. "It is important to implement adequate cybersecurity measures, especially before a new technology comes into use or a new manufacturing plant goes into operation," Kreuzer said./cho/DP/jha