Financials Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd

Equities

9009

JP3278600006

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 11:30:00 02/05/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5,894 ^JPY	+0.07%		-1.24%	-11.55%

29/04	Keisei Electric Railway's Attributable Profit Soars 225.5% in Fiscal 2024	MT
26/04	Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. Announces Dividend for the Year-End Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2024, Payable on June 28, 2024; Provides Dividend Guidance for the Second Quarter Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: Marzo	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	6,80,464	5,27,228	6,10,092	5,75,544	6,82,493	9,57,362	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	9,73,482	7,94,057	9,08,545	8,89,678	10,07,702	13,22,657	12,71,477	12,47,813
P/E ratio	17.6 x	17.5 x	-20.2 x	-130 x	25.2 x	11.7 x	19.9 x	17.9 x
Yield	0.42%	0.54%	0.47%	0.5%	0.49%	0.63%	0.6%	0.61%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.6 x	1.92 x	2.94 x	2.69 x	2.7 x	3.51 x	3.09 x	3.07 x
EV / Revenue	3.72 x	2.89 x	4.37 x	4.15 x	3.99 x	4.46 x	4.1 x	4.01 x
EV / EBITDA	17 x	13.8 x	74.6 x	35.2 x	24.1 x	22.6 x	19.6 x	18.4 x
EV / FCF	-65 x	233 x	-32.2 x	-180 x	56.8 x	41.5 x	51.4 x	50.4 x
FCF Yield	-1.54%	0.43%	-3.1%	-0.55%	1.76%	2.41%	1.95%	1.98%
Price to Book	1.75 x	1.28 x	1.61 x	1.56 x	1.73 x	2.22 x	1.84 x	1.74 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,69,270	1,68,983	1,68,534	1,68,534	1,67,483	1,62,540	-	-
Reference price ²	4,020	3,120	3,620	3,415	4,075	5,890	5,890	5,890
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: Marzo	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	2,61,553	2,74,796	2,07,761	2,14,157	2,52,338	2,96,509	3,09,800	3,11,396
EBITDA ¹	57,211	57,405	12,184	25,282	41,844	58,593	64,800	67,718
EBIT ¹	31,608	28,320	-18,056	-5,201	10,228	25,241	31,950	32,938
Operating Margin	12.08%	10.31%	-8.69%	-2.43%	4.05%	8.51%	10.31%	10.58%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	50,563	40,958	-32,335	-2,890	32,858	1,21,940	59,500	65,767
Net income ¹	38,642	30,110	-30,289	-4,438	26,929	87,657	48,000	53,376
Net margin	14.77%	10.96%	-14.58%	-2.07%	10.67%	29.56%	15.49%	17.14%
EPS ²	228.3	178.1	-179.6	-26.33	161.7	524.6	295.4	328.5
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,988	3,411	-28,205	-4,933	17,733	31,908	24,733	24,758
FCF margin	-5.73%	1.24%	-13.58%	-2.3%	7.03%	10.76%	7.98%	7.95%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	5.94%	-	-	42.38%	54.46%	38.17%	36.56%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	11.33%	-	-	65.85%	36.4%	51.53%	46.38%
Dividend per Share ²	17.00	17.00	17.00	17.00	20.00	39.00	35.50	35.67
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	1,38,007	1,36,789	99,501	52,238	1,04,156	56,134	53,867	59,756	59,275	1,19,031	66,687	66,620	72,466	75,483	1,47,949	74,665	73,895
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	19,117	9,203	-12,015	-2,283	-3,727	1,535	-3,009	3,203	1,198	4,401	4,079	1,748	7,653	7,597	15,250	8,617	1,374
Operating Margin	13.85%	6.73%	-12.08%	-4.37%	-3.58%	2.73%	-5.59%	5.36%	2.02%	3.7%	6.12%	2.62%	10.56%	10.06%	10.31%	11.54%	1.86%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	28,228	-	-20,384	-4,302	-6,821	4,763	-	5,962	-	18,194	9,891	-	13,646	13,225	26,871	18,472	-
Net income	21,176	-	-18,278	-4,345	-7,786	3,348	-	4,382	11,215	15,597	7,420	3,912	10,622	10,470	21,092	14,897	-
Net margin	15.34%	-	-18.37%	-8.32%	-7.48%	5.96%	-	7.33%	18.92%	13.1%	11.13%	5.87%	14.66%	13.87%	14.26%	19.95%	-
EPS	125.1	-	-108.4	-25.78	-46.20	19.87	-	26.35	-	94.13	44.33	23.26	63.43	62.51	125.9	88.95	-
Dividend per Share	8.500	-	8.500	-	8.500	-	-	-	-	8.500	-	-	-	-	13.00	-	-
Announcement Date	31/10/19	30/04/20	30/10/20	29/10/21	29/10/21	31/01/22	28/04/22	29/07/22	31/10/22	31/10/22	31/01/23	28/04/23	31/07/23	31/10/23	31/10/23	31/01/24	26/04/24

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	2,93,018	2,66,829	2,98,453	3,14,134	3,25,209	2,82,235	3,14,115	2,90,451
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.122 x	4.648 x	24.5 x	12.43 x	7.772 x	4.817 x	4.847 x	4.289 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,988	3,411	-28,205	-4,933	17,733	31,908	24,733	24,758
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	10.4%	7.5%	-7.7%	-1.2%	7%	20.7%	9.6%	10.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	6.16%	4.74%	-3.56%	-0.35%	2.87%	5.08%	5.7%	5.7%
Assets ¹	6,27,686	6,34,884	8,50,528	12,52,434	9,38,711	17,24,371	8,42,105	9,36,088
Book Value Per Share ²	2,301	2,436	2,247	2,194	2,358	2,779	3,201	3,376
Cash Flow per Share ²	380.0	350.0	55.10	155.0	352.0	724.0	508.0	553.0
Capex ¹	60,839	47,303	37,487	39,933	38,254	61,484	48,333	53,333
Capex / Sales	23.26%	17.21%	18.04%	18.65%	15.16%	20.74%	15.6%	17.13%
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

UNDERPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

5,890 JPY

Average target price

5,888 JPY

Spread / Average Target

-0.04%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-11.55%	6.07B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+0.98%	22.44B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+19.02%	9.96B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+9.06%	10.06B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+8.13%	7.03B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-8.58%	6.28B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-11.67%	4.81B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+24.91%	4.65B
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-22.74%	3.93B
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-17.50%	4.03B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea