(new: share price updated and analyst commentary)

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Broker) - From the biggest price gainer in the Dax to the biggest price loser: Commerzbank shares had to accept a strong "swing" on Wednesday after quarterly figures. This is the term used in stock trading to describe a sharp trend reversal within a single trading day. While the shares were still at the top of the DAX in the morning with a plus of almost 7 percent, they slipped to the bottom of the leading index only a short time later with a minus of almost 5 percent. By the end of trading, however, they were up 0.7 percent again.

While the bank's quarterly results had convinced investors in early trading, statements for the still distant year 2027 were not so well received in the morning. These were only in line with market expectations, meaning that "the upward trigger is missing in the short term", summarized one trader.

According to the Executive Board's plans, higher net commission income in particular should contribute to the strong increase in profits by 2027. It is expected to grow from slightly under 3.5 billion euros in the current year to 4.0 billion euros in 2027. According to the current forecast, net interest income, which has risen sharply recently, will increase to more than EUR 8.1 billion in the current year, but is only likely to increase moderately in the medium term according to management estimates. The Executive Board is forecasting 8.4 billion euros for 2027.

Another trader also called the targets for the next two years "disappointing". The interest rate assumptions on which the targets are based are challenging. Commerzbank's earnings prospects are below market expectations and are "lackluster".

Analyst Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs argued similarly. Commerzbank's assumptions for future net interest income are based on key interest rate levels of the European Central Bank, which are significantly higher than current market estimates. The proposed dividend payments to shareholders also fell short of expectations.

Experts were largely full of praise for the third quarter report. Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank highlighted the pre-tax profit, which exceeded market expectations by 15 percent, mainly thanks to lower risk provisions in the lending business. The prospect of lower loan loss provisions also led to the more optimistic profit target for the year as a whole. Overall, Goy called the figures "respectable".

When the figures for the second quarter were presented at the beginning of August, investors on the stock market reacted noticeably negatively: Within three trading days, the Commerzbank share price had slipped by almost ten percent at the time. The bank's costs and statements on share buybacks had caused disappointment on the market./bek/he