Financials China Southern Airlines Company Limited Shanghai S.E.

Equities

600029

CNE000001FG0

Airlines

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 30/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5.67 ^CNY	+0.18%		+2.16%	-1.56%

30/04	China Southern Airlines to Buy C919 Jets for $9.9 Billion	MT
30/04	China Southern Airlines to receive its first C919 jet in August	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	78,905	82,476	1,04,417	1,23,100	91,701	88,620	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	2,62,310	2,20,356	2,56,980	2,32,145	2,17,443	2,78,361	2,75,480	2,60,196
P/E ratio	21.3 x	-5.05 x	-5.07 x	-2.36 x	-13.1 x	8.68 x	6.68 x	4.43 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	0.47%	1.76%	1.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.51 x	0.89 x	1.03 x	1.41 x	0.57 x	0.48 x	0.44 x	0.43 x
EV / Revenue	1.7 x	2.38 x	2.53 x	2.67 x	1.36 x	1.51 x	1.37 x	1.25 x
EV / EBITDA	7.49 x	24.6 x	21.2 x	-10.2 x	25.1 x	8.48 x	6.97 x	6.11 x
EV / FCF	16.9 x	-110 x	-92.6 x	-67.6 x	7.13 x	3,237 x	117 x	48.4 x
FCF Yield	5.93%	-0.91%	-1.08%	-1.48%	14%	0.03%	0.85%	2.07%
Price to Book	0.9 x	0.86 x	0.91 x	1.87 x	-	1.04 x	0.89 x	0.77 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,22,67,172	1,53,29,302	1,69,48,417	1,81,20,890	1,81,20,906	1,81,20,907	-	-
Reference price ²	4.683	3.888	3.805	4.487	3.008	2.628	2.628	2.628
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	28/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,54,322	92,561	1,01,644	87,059	1,59,929	1,84,707	2,01,691	2,07,574
EBITDA ¹	35,033	8,940	12,142	-22,852	8,674	32,814	39,537	42,552
EBIT ¹	3,202	-16,550	-14,696	-32,199	-2,142	7,382	16,770	15,595
Operating Margin	2.07%	-17.88%	-14.46%	-36.99%	-1.34%	4%	8.31%	7.51%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,070	-15,195	-13,910	-31,526	-1,645	7,317	16,302	16,476
Net income ¹	2,651	-10,847	-12,106	-32,682	-4,209	6,175	12,030	9,495
Net margin	1.72%	-11.72%	-11.91%	-37.54%	-2.63%	3.34%	5.96%	4.57%
EPS ²	0.2200	-0.7700	-0.7500	-1.900	-0.2300	0.3028	0.3932	0.5938
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
FCF margin	10.08%	-2.17%	-2.73%	-3.94%	19.07%	0.05%	1.17%	2.59%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.4%	-	-	-	351.64%	0.26%	5.95%	12.64%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	586.68%	-	-	-	-	1.39%	19.55%	56.63%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	0.0123	0.0464	0.0500
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	28/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	81,383	38,964	-	23,149	50,068	21,471	19,346	40,817	29,344	16,898	46,242	34,055	37,775	71,830	47,661	40,438	88,099	44,601	43,155	54,456	45,913
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-2,841	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8,799	13,314	4,457
EBIT	-	-	-	-7,298	-	-5,907	-9,537	-10,564	-5,696	-11,059	-15,671	-1,467	-475	1,433	5,586	-5,786	-	1,519	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-31.53%	-	-27.51%	-49.3%	-25.88%	-19.41%	-65.45%	-33.89%	-4.31%	-1.26%	1.99%	11.72%	-14.31%	-	3.41%	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5,483	-10,917	-16,420	-	-361	-	5,727	-5,611	-	1,583	2,461	7,191	-1,805
Net income	-	-	-4,690	-5,984	-7,416	-4,496	-6,992	-11,488	-	-	-21,209	-1,898	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-25.85%	-14.81%	-20.94%	-36.14%	-28.15%	-	-	-45.87%	-5.57%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.0800	-0.6400	-	-	-0.4500	-	-	-0.6800	-	-	-1.220	-	-	-0.1600	-	-	-0.0700	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	30/03/20	28/08/20	27/08/21	30/03/22	30/03/22	28/04/22	30/08/22	30/08/22	28/10/22	28/03/23	28/03/23	28/04/23	29/08/23	29/08/23	27/10/23	27/03/24	27/03/24	29/04/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	1,83,405	1,37,880	1,52,563	1,09,045	1,25,742	1,89,742	1,86,860	1,71,576
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.235 x	15.42 x	12.56 x	-4.772 x	14.5 x	5.122 x	4.822 x	3.865 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.08%	-14.6%	-17.6%	-62.2%	-10.8%	10.6%	15%	17%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.03%	-3.43%	-3.73%	-10.3%	-1.36%	1.85%	1.74%	3%
Assets ¹	2,57,604	3,16,370	3,24,819	3,17,310	3,10,604	2,56,695	3,95,575	2,98,201
Book Value Per Share ²	5.230	4.540	4.190	2.400	-	2.330	2.900	3.250
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.540	-0.4400	0.8300	0.2000	-	1.680	1.780	1.900
Capex ¹	15,622	11,061	16,147	6,897	9,633	10,036	19,436	15,546
Capex / Sales	10.12%	11.95%	15.89%	7.92%	6.02%	5.32%	10.15%	7.51%
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	28/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.628 CNY

Average target price

3.615 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+37.54%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

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