Important battery R&D progress
OPINION CHANGE
CHANGE IN OPINION
Buy vs Reduce


CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE
CHF 5.58 vs 3.23 +72.8%

Even the relative valuation metrics benefited via addition of CATL (Chinese battery pioneer) as a peer.


CHANGE IN NAV
CHF 11.8 vs 7.49 +57.4%

Taking on board the R&D breakthrough in Battery, the division's EV/sales valuation multiple has been increased to 3x (vs. 1.5x earlier). Given that the full-potential across Blackstone’s respective divisions is still a couple of years away, the NAV is a better reflection of the underlying value at the firm.


CHANGE IN DCF
CHF 3.64 vs 2.79 +30.5%

While the near-term cash flow situation remains unchanged, the R&D progress in the strategically-important Battery division has resulted in all the out-year estimates (ex. EBITDA) being increased to 4% (vs. 3.5% earlier). EBITDA growth has been increased to 5.5% (vs. 4.5% earlier) – resulting in the long-term margin resetting close to 20%.