Financials Ampol Limited

Equities

ALD

AU0000088338

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 11:40:04 29/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
38.08 ^AUD	-0.96%		-2.03%	+5.34%

11/04	Goldman Sachs Downgrades Ampol to Sell from Buy, Price Target Is AU$38.30	MT
20/02	Asia's sustainable aviation fuel projects and agreements	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	8,478	7,097	7,068	6,739	8,615	9,163	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	9,346	8,445	8,765	10,228	12,009	12,700	12,644	12,572
P/E ratio	22.5 x	-14.6 x	12.7 x	8.51 x	15.7 x	13 x	12.9 x	12.8 x
Yield	2.44%	1.69%	3.14%	7.96%	5.95%	6.18%	5.74%	5.77%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.38 x	0.46 x	0.33 x	0.18 x	0.23 x	0.24 x	0.24 x	0.24 x
EV / Revenue	0.42 x	0.55 x	0.41 x	0.27 x	0.32 x	0.33 x	0.33 x	0.32 x
EV / EBITDA	9.4 x	10.3 x	8.74 x	5.8 x	6.84 x	7.1 x	7.21 x	6.98 x
EV / FCF	16.3 x	134 x	26.7 x	20.4 x	12.3 x	20.2 x	19 x	16.5 x
FCF Yield	6.14%	0.74%	3.74%	4.91%	8.1%	4.94%	5.25%	6.06%
Price to Book	2.64 x	2.4 x	2.31 x	1.86 x	2.42 x	2.53 x	2.41 x	2.31 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,49,707	2,49,707	2,38,302	2,38,302	2,38,302	2,38,302	-	-
Reference price ²	33.95	28.42	29.66	28.28	36.15	38.45	38.45	38.45
Announcement Date	24/02/20	21/02/21	20/02/22	19/02/23	18/02/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	22,307	15,406	21,630	38,492	37,749	38,473	38,823	38,728
EBITDA ¹	994.4	823.5	1,003	1,764	1,756	1,789	1,753	1,801
EBIT ¹	607	401.2	631.2	1,269	1,297	1,310	1,270	1,282
Operating Margin	2.72%	2.6%	2.92%	3.3%	3.43%	3.4%	3.27%	3.31%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	521.7	-725.6	797.1	936.5	751.6	1,042	1,012	1,048
Net income ¹	382.8	-484.9	560	795.9	549.1	745.3	699.5	737.8
Net margin	1.72%	-3.15%	2.59%	2.07%	1.45%	1.94%	1.8%	1.91%
EPS ²	1.511	-1.942	2.335	3.323	2.299	2.951	2.975	3.015
Free Cash Flow ¹	574.1	62.9	327.7	502.3	972.5	627.7	664	761.7
FCF margin	2.57%	0.41%	1.52%	1.3%	2.58%	1.63%	1.71%	1.97%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	57.74%	7.64%	32.66%	28.48%	55.4%	35.08%	37.87%	42.29%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	149.99%	-	58.52%	63.11%	177.11%	84.22%	94.92%	103.23%
Dividend per Share ²	0.8300	0.4800	0.9300	2.250	2.150	2.376	2.207	2.219
Announcement Date	24/02/20	21/02/21	20/02/22	19/02/23	18/02/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	11,998	8,055	7,351	9,817	5,906	-	11,813	8,667	17,333	-	-	21,158	18,447	19,303	9,320	9,320	18,408	8,870	8,870	17,911	8,904	17,717	17,502
EBITDA	547.9	428.9	394.6	-	-	-	471.6	-	876.8	-	-	887.2	798	957.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	351.6	221	180.2	339.8	102	189.4	291.4	-	693.1	272.3	303.6	575.9	576.3	720.3	331	-	631.7	-	-	601.1	-	567.5	567.1
Operating Margin	2.93%	2.74%	2.45%	3.46%	1.73%	-	2.47%	-	4%	-	-	2.72%	3.12%	3.73%	3.55%	-	3.43%	-	-	3.36%	-	3.2%	3.24%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	166.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	227.4	-626.2	-	-	61	173.5	234.5	348	719.3	-28.4	105	76.6	79.1	470	237.7	220.4	458	208.4	192.3	400.7	200.6	404.4	412.6
Net margin	1.9%	-7.77%	-	-	1.03%	-	1.99%	4.01%	4.15%	-	-	0.36%	0.43%	2.43%	2.55%	2.36%	2.49%	2.35%	2.17%	2.24%	2.25%	2.28%	2.36%
EPS ²	0.9050	-2.475	-	-	0.4900	-	-	1.450	-	-	-	-	0.3310	1.968	0.9970	0.9250	1.922	0.8750	0.8070	1.682	0.8420	1.697	1.731
Dividend per Share ²	0.5100	0.2500	0.2300	-	0.2100	-	0.4100	0.6000	1.200	-	-	1.050	0.9500	1.200	0.5980	0.5550	1.153	0.5250	0.4840	1.009	0.5050	1.018	1.039
Announcement Date	24/02/20	24/08/20	21/02/21	22/08/21	25/10/21	20/02/22	20/02/22	21/08/22	21/08/22	24/10/22	19/02/23	19/02/23	20/08/23	18/02/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	868	1,348	1,697	3,488	3,394	3,537	3,481	3,409
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.8729 x	1.637 x	1.692 x	1.978 x	1.934 x	1.977 x	1.985 x	1.893 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	574	62.9	328	502	973	628	664	762
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.5%	6.82%	12.1%	22.8%	15.3%	21.2%	19.5%	19.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.08%	2.7%	4.5%	7.18%	4.2%	7.4%	6.72%	6.84%
Assets ¹	7,537	-17,932	12,444	11,092	13,076	10,073	10,413	10,786
Book Value Per Share ²	12.90	11.80	12.90	15.20	14.90	15.20	15.90	16.60
Cash Flow per Share ²	3.330	1.070	2.650	3.800	6.330	4.850	4.600	5.220
Capex ¹	270	205	307	407	539	562	500	431
Capex / Sales	1.21%	1.33%	1.42%	1.06%	1.43%	1.46%	1.29%	1.11%
Announcement Date	24/02/20	21/02/21	20/02/22	19/02/23	18/02/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Ampol Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

38.45 AUD

Average target price

39.23 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+2.02%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
AMPOL LIMITED	+5.34%	5.98B
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	+13.35%	221B
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORPORATION	+14.18%	103B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+33.72%	71.49B
PHILLIPS 66	+13.72%	64.2B
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION	+27.54%	54.22B
IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED	+27.93%	37.8B
INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED	+36.12%	28.33B
FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORPORATION	-11.77%	20.79B
REPSOL S.A.	+10.11%	19.12B

Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing