The Paris stock market is stable this morning, hovering around 6865 points.

Investors know that the next few weeks will prove decisive, as the first month of the year generally sets the general trend for equity markets.

According to calculations by S&P Dow Jones Indices, when the S&P 500 index rises in January, it is up for the year as a whole in over 71% of cases.

This theorem was largely confirmed last year, when the S&P fell by 5% in the first month of the year before ending the 2022 financial year down by just over 19%.

Similarly, analysts point out that it is extremely rare for a year of stock market correction to be followed by another year in the red, leading strategists to predict a rather favorable 2023 stock market year.

For Danske Bank analysts, the year looks 'interesting' in view of the contradictory forces currently tugging at the financial markets.

The easing of inflation, the slight improvement in visibility, the reopening of the Chinese economy and unused liquidity are all elements likely to reduce the risk premium and support equities", they assert in their latest weekly update.

"Conversely, the prospect of a recession, the still restrictive policies pursued by central banks and the pressure on corporate profits still militate in favor of a cautious positioning", however, tempers the Danish bank.

US asset manager Raymond James also predicts a rise in stock markets in 2023, but warns that the road ahead will be "full of pitfalls".

"Volatility will undoubtedly persist, and bottoming before markets recover is likely to take time in the current environment", warns Mike Gibbs, head of its equity portfolio and technical strategy.

With this in mind, we recommend that investors be patient and pragmatic, i.e. use weakness to strengthen (from a long-term perspective), and not chase any rallies that may come their way", he adds.

A certain feverishness could emerge over the next few days, leading up to this week's big event on the U.S. side, i.e. the monthly consumer price index (CPI) statistics due on Thursday.

Investors will be hoping for a further slowdown in US inflation, which hit 7.1% in November, its lowest level in almost a year.

In Europe, the session will be marked by unemployment figures for the euro zone, due to be published at the end of the morning.

In Germany, industrial production rebounded slightly by 0.2% month-on-month in November, driven by consumer goods following its 0.4% decline in October, according to data from Destatis, the Federal Statistics Office.

In company news, Dassault Systèmes announced that its governance structure, unveiled on April 27, would take effect from today, making its founder Charles Edelstenne the company's Honorary Chairman, in addition to his continuing role as a director.

CGG announced the start-up of a new 3D seismic reprocessing project in the Foz do Amazonas basin in Brazil's equatorial margin, scheduled for completion by the end of 2023, with first images as early as June.

On Monday, Stellantis announced the signature of an agreement with Australia's Element 25 for the supply of manganese sulfate for its electric vehicle batteries.
Finally, Vinci announces that Omexom ENR Sud-Ouest (VINCI Energies), in a consortium with SBIPB and Profil du Futur (ArcelorMittal), will build a 4.6 MWp photovoltaic plant for EDF Renouvelables in La Réunion.


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