The Paris stock market lost nearly -0.9%, around 7,560 points, penalized by Kering (-3.9%), L'Oréal and Hermès (-1.8%).

Caution was the order of the day on European markets (the E-Stoxx50 lost -0.7%), while Wall Street reopened up by +0.3% (Nasdaq) to +0.4% for the S&P500, which flirted with its records (around 5,654).

In the early afternoon, US investors were treated to the latest US retail sales figures: after rising by 0.3% in May compared with the previous month (revised from the 0.1% increase initially announced), US retail sales remained flat at a sequential rate in June, according to the Commerce Department.... although they were expected to fall by -0.2%.

Excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), which can be volatile, US retail sales rose by 0.4% last month compared with the previous month, following a 0.1% increase in May.

U.S. import prices stagnated in June, with the fall in oil prices (fuel prices were down 1% after having already fallen by 0.4% in May), offset by food prices, which rebounded by 0.7% after a 1.6% decline the previous month.

Excluding oil, prices of imported products rose by 0.2% in June, compared with a 0.3% decrease the previous month.
Over 12 months to the end of June, import prices rose by 1.6%, their biggest gain since December 2022 (+3.2%).
These new data confirm the risk of a slowdown in growth in the second half of the year, which validates the scenario of 2 monetary easings by the Fed between now and the end of the year.

In Europe, the 'ZEW' economic sentiment barometer for Germany came as a bad surprise, falling in July for the first time in a year to 41.8, 5.7 points below its June value.

The fact that German exports fell by more than expected in May, the political uncertainty in France and the lack of clarity regarding the ECB's future monetary policy all contributed to this development", explains Achim Wambach, President of ZEW.

On the other hand, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has improved slightly, in view of the anticipated indicator, which rose by 4.9 points this month to stand at -68.9.
On the bond side, the trend remains very positive, with -3.5 basis points on Bunds at 2.435%, -3 basis points on our OATs at 3.082% and -4 basis points on Italian sBTPs at 3.7110%.
T-Bonds are easing on exactly the same basis, with -3 basis points on the T-Bond 2034, at 4.198% (equalling lows of almost 4 months).
The easing in rates propels gold towards $2,445: the ounce retraces its end-March highs and is poised - barring unforeseen circumstances - to post its best ever close, with a margin of +1%.

The dollar strengthens slightly against the euro, which slips -0.15% to 1.0880. It remains trapped in its range between 1.06 and 1.09, two days ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcements.
The oil market is consolidating after five consecutive weeks of gains, despite the increasingly serious prospect of a victory for Donald Trump, whose policies are favorable to the sector.

Brent crude is down 1.9% at $83.7 a barrel, while WTI is down -1.6% at $80.7 on the NYMEX.

On the results front, the major US banking groups will remain in the spotlight on Tuesday with the quarterly results of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

The quarterly results season, which began last week and will intensify this week, could prompt investors to adopt a cautious stance as they await the publications of the major technology groups.
Scor is down -27% towards 19E after issuing a 'warning' on its 3rd quarter profits.
Atos remains very nervous, with an initial rise of +15% towards 1.53E, followed by a fall towards 1.05% (-15%), without any particular news.

Finally, in French company news, TotalEnergies reports that it has signed a binding agreement with SSE to create a joint venture to launch a major new player in electric recharging in the UK and Ireland, called 'Source', subject to the necessary regulatory approvals.

TotalEnergies also reports that its European refining margin indicator fell sequentially to $44.9 per tonne in Q2 2024, compared with $71.7 in the first three months of the year.

Vinci announced that its subsidiary Cobra IS had been selected by SMS Group GmbH to carry out work on part of steelmaker Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe's industrial complex in Duisburg, Germany, a contract worth 74 million euros.

Finally, Eiffage announced the strengthening of its presence in the Dutch energy market through the acquisition of two companies, EKB (a specialist in the design, construction and maintenance of industrial automation systems) and Rensen (a specialist in building management systems).


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