By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for July delivery fell 2.3% to $6.08 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with wheat halting seven consecutive days of higher trading ahead of this afternoon's Crop Progress report.

-Corn for July delivery fell 0.2% to $4.49 1/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.5% to $11.83 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Brief Reversal: CBOT wheat led the agricultural complex lower today, coming after seven consecutive higher closes for U.S. wheat. "Technical correction lower was needed on daily charts," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report on Friday showed a sizable reduction in short positions for winter wheat futures--while spring wheat futures were more balanced in their moves for the week ended April 23. Weather in Russia is seen improving for winter wheat crops there, while today's Crop Progress report from the USDA is anticipated to show a drop-off in U.S. winter wheat condition.

On Strike: Soymeal futures on the CBOT jumped today, and supported a similar uptick in soybeans. This was driven in large part by labor strikes in Argentina this week. The strike started this morning, as Argentina's SOEA oilseed workers' union protests a labor reform bill backed by President Javier Milei. Media reports say that the strike's length is indeterminate. Potential fallout of a hiccup in Argentina's soy exports is lifting those prices on the CBOT.


INSIGHT


Balanced Outlook: Improving weather in Russia pressured wheat, but traders see the afternoon Crop Progress report as potentially providing a lift through the rest of the week. "On the soft wheat contracts we are looking at favorable weather in Russian growing areas that is pressuring," said Donna Hughes of StoneX. "Hard Red is thinking about what is probably going to be another downgrade to the crop in this afternoon's report."

On Guard: The Federal Reserve's decision about interest rates due this week is a factor affecting commodities across the board, including grains. "What we see ahead so far this week is the FOMC meeting tomorrow and a decision on rates on Wednesday," Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said in a note. "The guess is the Fed may just hold rates in check, after some Fed officials hawkish stand on rates panicked the market suggesting rate hikes are back in the fold - but my bet the Fed keeps its powder dry." Fed uncertainty has caused some money to go into more safe havens like commodities, but weather is a bigger concern for grain traders.

Shipment Slide: Export inspections of corn and soybeans fell from the previous week, although corn shipments remain far ahead of last year's pace. The USDA said that corn export inspections totaled 1.23 million metric tons for the week ended April 25, down from 1.66 million tons reported last week. Soybean inspections totaled 250,332 tons for the week, down from 443,508 tons previously. Corn shipments fell from the previous week, but remains 32% higher than this time last year, the USDA said - with total shipments this year at 31.62 million tons. Soybeans remain lower versus last year's pace, totaling 38.75 million tons - down 18% from the previous year.


AHEAD


-Archer Daniels Midland Co. will release its fiscal first-quarter 2024 earnings at 7 a.m. ET Tuesday.

-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-29-24 1513ET