Even if the movements observed on the FOREX have to be put into perspective due to the absence of American traders (national holiday), the Dollar's decline was sufficiently pronounced (-0.3% to 105.1 for the $-Index) to conclude that the FED's "minutes" were deemed rather "dovish".

This led to the euro rising above 1.0810, the yen by 0.25% to 161.25, and the Swiss franc by +0.2% to 0.9000.... and the same gap for the Pound towards $1.2765.
The Euro was not weakened by the decline in German industrial production: it fell by -1.6%, whereas a rebound of +0.5% to +0.6% was expected in May.

Nor did the Pound suffer from this day of general elections, which should result in a large Labour victory, whereas the Conservatives led by Rishi Sunak have reached unpopularity records (after 14 years in power.... and a Brexit).

Forex trading should be lively tomorrow with the publication of the eagerly awaited 'NFP', the monthly US employment report.

'The macroeconomic situation remains complex at present, and the data provide uncertain information as to the next phase of the current cycle', explains Florian Ielpo, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

Once confidence is established, whether on the upside or the downside, the markets will be able to choose their own direction", says the analyst.
As for a rate cut in mid-September, this scenario is favored by 70 of traders, and the consensus rises to 84 for a second cut in December.


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