The Fed's Disappearing Dissent; WSJ Pro's Outlook for 2024

The Fed's Disappearing Dissent; WSJ Pro's Outlook for 2024 By James Christie

Good day. The new year is here and with it expectations that the Federal Reserve will wind down its campaign to fight inflation, ending its interest-rate increases that buffeted markets in recent years. Many now anticipate the Fed will cut rates, shifting market dynamics in ways that seemed unlikely just months ago. Policy makers might largely be in agreement on such a course, judging by how few nay votes they have cast at their interest-rate-setting meetings in recent years, as Bob Fernandez writes below. Also below, WSJ Pro staff offer a look at what 2024 may hold for markets, including concerns about political turmoil in the U.S. this election year.

Top News Pro Take: Dissenting Votes at the Fed Are Almost Extinct

Nay votes at the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-setting committee meetings have been in steady decline, with dissents during Jerome Powell's nearly six years at the head of the central bank at just 2.6% of total votes-the lowest since at least the Paul Volcker era in the late 1970s and 1980s.

Since the pandemic in March 2020, dissents under Powell have been even more rare: 1.4%. Over this time, the Federal Open Market Committee has dealt with a collapsing economy and labor market and spiking inflation, while managing a Fed balance sheet swollen by asset purchases during the pandemic. Read more .

Outlook for 2024

Interest rates look set to fall, merger-and-acquisition activity may be primed for a rebound and uncertainty continues to cloud ESG disclosure rules. Here's a look at what to expect in 2024 from WSJ Pro.

Businesses Eye Possible Political Protests as Looming 2024 Risk

U.S. business leaders rank escalating political polarization generally as their second most important emerging risk worry after generative artificial intelligence, according to a recently published report by research firm Gartner.

New Disruptions, Geopolitics Hang Over 2024 Supply Chains

Global supply chains enter 2024 roiled by disruptions at two crucial trade corridors-the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal-even as geopolitical tensions appear set to take a more prominent role in sourcing and distribution.

Finance Executives Hope Certainty Is Ahead on ESG Disclosures

Companies wanted 2023 to bring certainty on sustainability disclosures and regulations. They didn't get it. Instead, they continue to wait for an array of new and developing rules , including a climate disclosure rule from the SEC.

In 2024, FASB to Nudge Forward Projects on Software, Compensation and Green Credits

As CFOs Prepare for 2024, Here's What Tops Their Checklists

What do chief financial officers need to do to be ready for the new year? CFO Journal interviewed some top finance chiefs and experts recently to survey their thoughts on what is top of mind for 2024. Here's what they said .

Rate Cuts May Offer a Lifeline for Highly Indebted Companies

Companies weighed down with too much debt may be able to avoid needing to file for bankruptcy in 2024, thanks to an easing in monetary policy the Federal Reserve is expected to unroll in coming months.

LPs Doubt Venture Funds' Startup Valuations

As limited partners consider new venture fund investments they are increasingly questioning how fund managers account for the valuations of companies they have already backed, especially when those marks appear high.

Private Equity Faces Gloomy Fundraising Forecast for 2024

The toughest period for private-equity fundraising since at least the 2007-09 financial crisis is likely to continue in 2024, as investors remain handcuffed from investing more in the asset class, say investment advisers.

What Happened in M&A in 2023, and What's Ahead, in Five Charts

CIOs Seek Wiggle Room for Tech Investments

An uncertain economy won't stop corporate technology leaders from pouring dollars into new technologies like artificial intelligence in 2024-but they say it isn't easy finding the cash in other areas of the budget.

Cybersecurity in the Year Ahead: Think 2023 on Steroids

Low Battery Metal Prices Set to Persist in 2024

Prices for metals used in batteries swooned in 2023, with lithium falling to its cheapest level in two years, cobalt to its lowest point in four and nickel to its pandemic-era nadir. This year looks likely to bring more of the same .

Will 2024 Mark the End of the 'Digital Agency'?

Digital agencies were once the hottest segment of the advertising agency business, serving as key vendors for chief marketing officers looking to bring work into the online future and acquisition targets for giant ad-agency holding companies.

Forward Guidance Tuesday (all times ET)

10 a.m.: U.S. construction spending for November

Wednesday

10 a.m.: ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI for U.S. for December; U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

for November

Basis Points Chinese rulers have long used campaigns against corruption to sideline rivals and consolidate power. Xi Jinping is increasingly tying his authority to a new variation: a purge that never ends . Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged his countrymen to brace for more economic challenges in the year ahead, sounding a cautious note as a string of weak readings highlights the many headwinds facing the world's second-largest economy. A surprise surge in U.S. oil and gas production and exports is helping to keep the world stocked, blunting the impact of widening conflict in the Middle East that has crimped key shipping lanes. Low-paid U.S. workers might not notice 22 states are increasing the minimum wage to start the year. The reason: Robust raises in recent years have rendered pay floors largely irrelevant , even in states that aggressively lifted them. Feedback Loop

This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-02-24 0715ET