The bond market continues to shine, and yields to ease: 10-year T-Bonds are down 7.5 points at 3.88%, and the 30-year yield is down 3 points at 4.000% (3.997% at its lowest, and mortgage rates have been below 7% for 48 hours).

Europe is not to be outdone, with the ten-year German Bund, the eurozone's benchmark rate, down -4pts to 1.972%, our OATs down -4.8pts to 2.4800%, and Italian BTPs down -7pts to 3.581%.
In the UK, where inflation is clearly contracting (from 4.6% to 3.9%), Gilts are erasing -9Pts to 3.565%, outperforming Treasuries in the Eurozone.

Investors are clinging firmly to their scenario of a sharp cut in key rates in 2024 (the median expectation is 7, but UBS expects up to 10 Fed easings, i.e. several sequences of -50Pts).

In Europe, specialists are hoping for an easing as early as the 2nd quarter, as the Fed is due to start in mid-March (at 70%), and the ECB should follow suit.

However, this is not the opinion of Peter Casimir (head of the Slovakian central bank: "premature rate easing carries the risk of a rebound in inflation", and "I advocate caution".

On the statistics front, investors learned that US consumer confidence rose much more strongly than expected in December (from 101 to 110.7, instead of the 103 expected), according to the results of the Conference Board's monthly survey.

On the real estate front, sales of older homes rose by 0.8% last month compared with October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The median selling price reached $387,600, up 4% year-on-year, and the inventory of unsold existing homes fell by 1.7% month-on-month to 1.13 million at the end of November, or 3.5 months at the current rate of absorption.

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