The sharp easing in interest rates observed over the past 24 hours may have had something to do with the avalanche of statistics published since Tuesday, but this is far from obvious from today's figures.
On the other hand, there is a rather striking concordance between the fall in T-Bond yields and the acceleration of Wall Street's decline last night after 8pm, i.e. after the Fed had shown its willingness to temporize and not precipitate rate cuts.

Jerome Powell's speech dashed hopes of monetary easing as early as March, causing the Nasdaq to fall by -2.2%.
As a result, only 35% of traders still expect a rate cut in March, according to FedWatch, compared with 73% a month ago.

T-Bonds, which had eased sharply the previous day, continued their slide, with the '10-yr' down 10.4 basis points to 3.8500%, while the '30-yr' also fell 12 basis points to 4.0950%.

On the statistics front, it was a busy day: non-farm productivity in the US rose by 3.2% at an annualized rate in Q4 2023, according to the Labor Department's preliminary estimate, following a 4.9% increase in the previous quarter.

A 0.4% increase in the number of hours worked and a 3.7% rise in hourly wages should be noted: non-farm unit labor costs in the USA rose by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2023.

The US manufacturing sector saw its activity pick up in January, according to S&P Global, whose PMI index for the sector came in at 50.7 for the month, compared with 50.3 in the flash estimate and 47.9 in December.

While production was penalized by longer lead times, new orders returned to growth, but cost inflation accelerated to its highest rate for nine months

The Labor Department announced 224,000 new jobless claims in the US for the week of January 22, up 9,000 on the previous week's revised figure (215,000 instead of the 214,000 initially announced).

In Europe, the PMI HCOB buyers' index for the French manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, was released this morning: it rose from 42.1 in December to 43.1 in January, but continued to signal a sharp deterioration in the sector's economic situation.

The HCOB PMI index for the eurozone manufacturing industry, meanwhile, climbed from 44.4 in December to 46.6 in January, its highest level for ten months, signalling a slowdown in the sector's contraction for a third consecutive month.

Lastly, the eurozone's annual inflation rate is estimated at 2.8% in January 2024, down slightly from 2.9% in December 2023, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.
Thursday was one of the best days for Treasuries in Europe: Bunds eased -9pts to 2.148%, OATs -7pts to 2.653%, Italian BTPs -10pts to 3.7100%.

Across the Channel, Gilts eased -8.5pts to 3.7910%.


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