Jan 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The stars are aligned for Asian markets to end the week with a bang - Chinese stocks are loving Beijing's support measures, U.S. growth is smashing expectations on the upside, while inflation is smashing expectations on the downside.
On top of that, the European Central Bank could soften its rhetoric at its March meeting and pave the way for an interest rate cut as soon as June, if upcoming data confirms inflation has been vanquished, four sources told Reuters.
Bond yields are falling, U.S. stocks are making new highs - earnings are strong, despite Tesla - so the global backdrop looks bullish.
Apart from Tokyo inflation figures for January, the economic calendar in Asia on Friday is fairly light, leaving investors to take their cue from the 'risk on' global picture.
The first estimate of fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth on Thursday was nothing short of remarkable. Not only did the 3.3% growth rate obliterate the 2.0% consensus forecast, it was higher than every one of the 87 forecasts in a Reuters poll.
That might have been rocket fuel for bond yields, were it not for inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, falling to just 1.5%. That was below the 2.3% consensus, below every forecast in a Reuters poll, and well below the Fed's consumer inflation goal of 2%.
Goldilocks, soft landing, no landing - whatever you call it, and whether it is by accident or design, the Fed appears to be steering the U.S. economy away from a recession that many people have been calling for over a year now.
One curiosity is the GDP figures suggest the U.S. economy grew faster than China's in the October-December period on a nominal basis, and for the second quarter in a row too.
China's economic challenges - including deflation, capital outflows, an imploding and hugely indebted property sector, indebted local governments and high youth unemployment - have battered its stock markets.
But authorities are acting - belatedly, some might say - and a relief rally is under way. The Shanghai Composite is up 2.6% this week and on course for its best week since July; the CSI 300 is up nearly 5% in two days, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is on course for its biggest weekly rise in over a year.
They are coming from multi-month or multi-year lows and momentum appears to be strong. While there are legitimate questions over the long-term effectiveness of Beijing's support policies where the reported funds are coming from, the market rebound could well extend into Friday.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:
- Japan - Tokyo inflation (January)
- Philippines trade (December)
- Thailand trade (December)
(By Jamie McGeever;)
