As we regularly write in these columns, monetary policy (expectations) are one of the main drivers of foreign exchange market movements. So, when a central bank begins an aggressive tightening or rate-cutting cycle, traders generally make the necessary arbitrages to readjust their positions and take advantage of any carry trades. Although the rule is simple, it is not always reflected in the price action of the currencies concerned. For this reason, it's always best to wait for an alignment between macro vision and chart configuration, in order to maximize your chances of success.

Thus, the EURUSD was still hovering around its resistance level of 1.0890, despite the ECB's action. Things really started to heat up with the release of US non-farm payrolls, while the outcome of the European elections put the final nail in the coffin. The currency broke through the 1.0790 level at the bottom of the uptrend channel it had been following since April.

Elsewhere in the world, there was little change in the USDJPY, where a range is still expected. Commodity currencies are awaiting the Fed meeting and its implications in terms of monetary policy. AUDUSD is fluctuating between 0.6578 and 0.6700, with next levels at 0.6474 and 0.6853 respectively. As for the kiwi, it remains well oriented above 0.6110/00, although it has come up against intermediate resistance at 0.6200/20.