The dollar retreated slightly ahead of the FED's press release (-0.2% on the Dollar Index at 103.18), but it was the yen in particular that strengthened, jumping +0.9% against the greenback to 146.15 (close to levels seen on January 11 or December 11).
The dollar has fallen back a little against the euro (by a symbolic -0.1%) and by -0.25% against the Swiss franc (the $ has fallen back below 0.86)... but it could regain everything if the FED makes a hawkish speech.

While the prospect of a 'status quo' in March is hardly in doubt, given the unexpectedly robust nature of almost all the US stats published in January, today's 'number of the day' is a major setback in an area that the FED particularly scrutinizes, namely unemployment.
A rate cut in May already seems to be on traders' calendars, and it is likely that the labor market has already begun to soften.

The ADP barometer of US private-sector employment cooled sharply in January, with only +107.000 new hires, well below economists' expectations (of the order of 150,000 expected according to Jefferies).
The ADP report also came in sharply down on the previous month's 158,000 (revised from 164,000 in the initial estimate), which could foreshadow a subdued 'NFP' on Friday.

There were also 'figures' this morning in Europe: a further fall (-1.8%) in French industrial producer prices (PPI) in December over one year, after -0.5% in November.
Insee specifies that PPI are virtually stable (+0.1% after +0.2% in November) excluding energy.

Also according to Insee (provisional estimate), consumer prices in France are set to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in January 2024, down significantly from 3.7% in December 2023.

Finally, the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter, according to a new estimate published by the Federal Statistical Office, with GDP down 0.3% in the last three months of the year compared with the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, in line with an initial estimate published on January 15.

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