It's amazing! The dollar continues to alternate up and down with the regularity of a metronome: never has the greenback aligned more than 2 sessions in the same trend since January 4.
The $-Index falls back -0.2% to 103.38... but the horizontal stagnation has continued since January 16.
Another sequence of stagnation between 102.2 and 102.6 took place from January 2 to 15: this seems to illustrate a "stair-step" scenario where everything happens in a few hours... then nothing for 2 weeks.

The Dollar fell and the Euro recovered symmetrically by 0.2% to $1.0865, but since January 16, the Euro has gained 0.00%: the status quo is total, it's as if nothing had happened, and the ECB had not spoken.
We understood on Thursday that Christine Lagarde's exercise consisted in giving no hint of her intentions.

Yesterday, the ECB maintained its main deposit rate for the second time at 4%, repeating that it is dealing with 'issues' meeting by meeting and that it considers expectations of rate cuts premature (this is not under discussion), that it remains 'data dependent' (in other words: 'it depends').

And it depends on the evolution of current conflicts (Ukraine, Israel, Yemen), which pose risks for global activity... and transport prices.
If the euro was little changed on Friday, it's also because the figures for the Eurozone were mixed: French household confidence improved again in January, with Insee's synthetic indicator gaining 2 points to 91, but German household morale deteriorated sharply (to -29.7 points, from -25.4) in January according to the monthly survey by the GfK institute, further darkening the picture of the German economy at the start of the year.

In the United States, the most eagerly awaited figure of the week was the inflation index - or PCE price - which came in at +2.6% annualized in December 2023, a stable rate compared with November, according to the Commerce Department.

Excluding food and energy, two usually volatile categories, however, the index fell from +3.2% to +2.9% month-on-month, again in line with expectations at broke

Another very vigorous figure: consumer spending in the US rose by 0.7% last month compared with November, on income growth of just 0.3% month-on-month, according to the Commerce Department.

Growth in consumer spending was therefore slightly higher than the 0.5% anticipated by Jefferies, while growth in US household incomes was fully in line with the broker's forecast.
Across the Channel, the Pound is down -0.15% against the Euro and -0.05% against the Dollar, despite the Gilts' yield having climbed back above 4.000%.

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