Financials YPF Sociedad Anónima

Equities

YPFD

ARP9897X1319

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

End-of-day quote Buenos Aires S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 26/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
22,957 ^ARS	+4.36%		+12.16%	+37.56%

19/04	ETF of the week: Diversifying into frontier markets
18/04	Goldman Sachs Raises Price Target on YPF Sociedad Anonima to $20 From $17.40, Maintains Neutral Rating	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	3,37,148	2,72,900	3,06,174	12,37,893	65,63,683	90,29,144	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	8,51,218	9,13,924	10,70,651	24,41,470	1,23,17,320	1,62,59,937	1,59,30,036	1,51,83,742
P/E ratio	-9.87 x	-3.91 x	-120 x	2.76 x	-5.89 x	52.5 x	-	-
Yield	0.68%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capitalization / Revenue	0.5 x	0.32 x	0.21 x	0.33 x	0.45 x	0.59 x	0.59 x	0.58 x
EV / Revenue	1.25 x	1.08 x	0.75 x	0.65 x	0.84 x	1.07 x	1.03 x	0.98 x
EV / EBITDA	5.01 x	6.96 x	2.58 x	2.46 x	3.59 x	3.61 x	3.22 x	2.91 x
EV / FCF	15.3 x	9.66 x	5.64 x	8.1 x	63.6 x	405 x	76.3 x	43.4 x
FCF Yield	6.54%	10.4%	17.7%	12.3%	1.57%	0.25%	1.31%	2.3%
Price to Book	0.62 x	0.4 x	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	3,93,313	3,93,313	3,93,313	3,93,313	3,93,313	3,93,313	-	-
Reference price ²	857.2	693.8	778.4	3,147	16,688	22,957	22,957	22,957
Announcement Date	06/03/20	04/03/21	03/03/22	10/03/23	06/03/24	-	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	6,78,595	8,46,606	14,30,207	37,74,415	1,46,47,287	1,52,26,297	1,54,17,987	1,55,52,916
EBITDA ¹	1,69,857	1,31,289	4,14,758	9,93,011	34,33,579	45,07,900	49,48,197	52,18,498
EBIT ¹	20,417	-1,17,925	66,984	5,22,902	7,36,976	17,28,130	20,56,909	23,72,557
Operating Margin	3.01%	-13.93%	4.68%	13.85%	5.03%	11.35%	13.34%	15.25%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-7,010	-82,168	71,845	6,14,950	-2,17,454	16,22,385	23,66,689	23,92,094
Net income ¹	-34,071	-97,699	-2,485	4,48,334	-11,10,117	10,36,066	12,92,414	14,61,827
Net margin	-5.02%	-11.54%	-0.17%	11.88%	-7.58%	6.8%	8.38%	9.4%
EPS ²	-86.85	-177.4	-6.482	1,141	-2,833	437.1	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	55,682	94,600	1,89,823	3,01,296	1,93,677	40,146	2,08,654	3,49,823
FCF margin	8.21%	11.17%	13.27%	7.98%	1.32%	0.26%	1.35%	2.25%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	32.78%	72.05%	45.77%	30.34%	5.64%	0.89%	4.22%	6.7%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	67.2%	-	3.87%	16.14%	23.93%
Dividend per Share ²	5.850	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	06/03/20	04/03/21	03/03/22	10/03/23	06/03/24	-	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	3,62,473	3,91,098	4,25,651	6,50,788	8,30,618	9,32,391	9,70,574	12,52,103	15,76,400	35,48,652	35,77,068	42,43,033	42,70,118	39,61,382
EBITDA ¹	1,15,519	90,104	1,13,819	2,01,068	2,40,252	1,87,281	2,39,094	2,87,626	3,24,100	9,15,508	11,04,722	12,49,803	12,29,544	11,97,609
EBIT ¹	42,844	-21,175	44,497	1,13,938	1,29,108	93,741	76,721	63,249	41,650	4,51,831	4,74,167	6,44,826	5,85,637	3,52,232
Operating Margin	11.82%	-5.41%	10.45%	17.51%	15.54%	10.05%	7.9%	5.05%	2.64%	12.73%	13.26%	15.2%	13.71%	8.89%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	39,040	-2,269	52,811	1,31,230	-	1,24,453	97,561	1,30,219	-47,950	-8,46,972	1,61,966	-	-	-
Net income ¹	23,224	26,685	29,274	1,05,896	1,08,579	93,339	78,095	95,875	-44,800	-15,73,794	2,41,982	4,37,521	3,74,125	2,53,985
Net margin	6.41%	6.82%	6.88%	16.27%	13.07%	10.01%	8.05%	7.66%	-2.84%	-44.35%	6.76%	10.31%	8.76%	6.41%
EPS ²	-	-	-	-	-	239.5	-	-	-115.5	-4,017	-142.9	193.4	218.6	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	09/11/21	03/03/22	11/05/22	10/08/22	10/11/22	10/03/23	11/05/23	10/08/23	09/11/23	06/03/24	-	-	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	5,14,070	6,41,024	7,64,477	12,03,577	57,53,637	72,30,793	69,00,892	61,54,598
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3.026 x	4.883 x	1.843 x	1.212 x	1.676 x	1.604 x	1.395 x	1.179 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	55,682	94,600	1,89,823	3,01,296	1,93,677	40,146	2,08,654	3,49,823
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	-7.56%	-11.4%	-0.28%	23.7%	9.96%	16.5%	15.1%	17.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-2.65%	-3.98%	-0.1%	9.06%	-5.15%	8.42%	12.2%	-
Assets ¹	12,83,664	24,52,344	24,94,853	49,50,409	2,15,53,583	1,23,03,362	1,06,20,544	-
Book Value Per Share	1,383	1,725	-	-	-	-	-	-
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	533.0	1,012	2,915	12,769	8,315	-	-
Capex ¹	1,61,455	1,14,616	2,64,909	8,41,460	48,07,243	43,12,648	38,40,581	34,76,923
Capex / Sales	23.79%	13.54%	18.52%	22.29%	32.82%	28.32%	24.91%	22.36%
Announcement Date	06/03/20	04/03/21	03/03/22	10/03/23	06/03/24	-	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for YPF Sociedad Anónima

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

22,957 ARS

Average target price

7,140 ARS

Spread / Average Target

-68.90%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
YPF SOCIEDAD ANÓNIMA	+37.56%	10.32B
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	+12.39%	221B
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORPORATION	+17.36%	103B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+33.72%	71.49B
PHILLIPS 66	+13.72%	64.2B
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION	+27.54%	54.22B
IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED	+27.93%	37.8B
INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED	+32.11%	28.33B
FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORPORATION	-11.77%	20.79B
REPSOL S.A.	+9.44%	19.12B

Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing