Yara International ASA
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO
Maria Gabrielsen, Head of Investor Relations
Fredrik Hoseth, Investor Relations Officer
23 October 2023
Oslo, Roadshow with ABG SC
Continued strong cash conversion in lower margin environment
3Q 2023
EBITDA down 62% due to reduced margins
Operating cash flow of 1 BUSD primarily due to operating capital release
European nitrate price negatively impacted by long order book at start of 3Q
Supportive fundamentals for full season but uncertain phasing of deliveries
2
Lower gas prices and higher deliveries more than offset by strong price decline
EBITDA ex. special items (MUSD)1 | 2 |
ROIC |
Price/margin: - 1,420
Energy cost4: + 810
Fixed costs: -57
3
21.5% | 3.6% |
- EBITDA ex. special items. For definition and reconciliation see Alternative performance measures (APM) section of 3Q report, page 33
2) | Quarterly ROIC, annualized. For definition and reconciliation see APM section of 3Q report, page 35 | 3 |
3) | Volume effect calculated as change in volume vs 3Q22 per product multiplied by margin per product in 3Q22. Margin calculated as residual. | |
4) | Energy cost variance calculated by multiplying gas price differential with last year's gas consumption | 3 |
European nitrate price negatively impacted by long order book at start of 3Q
Price development 3Q23 | Comments: | |
USD/t
- Longer order book built ahead of 3Q, to maintain deliveries and cash flow through off-season summer period
- Order-takingfell as urea price rose in July/August, leaving order book shorter at end 3Q
- 3Q realized nitrate prices 10% lower than average publication prices, reflecting the above factors
Urea
FOB Arab Gulf
Slowdown in demand
June July Aug Sep
1) | Average of fertilizer publications, 1-month lag applied. | 4 |
2) | Yara's realized European nitrate price, CAN 27 CIF Germany equivalent ex. sulfur. | |
3) | Nitrate premium in CIF Germany terms, above Urea Granular FOB Egypt, in 27% N (USD/t): All prices in CAN27 equivalents unlagged |
Geopolitical situation strengthens business case for operational flexibility and resilience
Key geopolitical risk drivers
Europe: Energy crisis and | ||
Russia and Belarus: food, | ||
Ukraine war, EU regulations | ||
gas, raw materials | ||
US: Inflation | |
reduction act | China: trade policies |
Africa: Food system
Brazil: increased competition from Russian product
resilience
Flexible production setup, asset footprint and diversified natural gas position are key mitigating factors
5
Yara will prioritize strategic and value-creating investments in US clean ammonia
Type
Blue
ammonia
Green
ammonia
Project | CO2 Capture | Yara volume1 | Type | Yara capex3 | Start of production | |||||||
Project YaREN2 | ~95% | 1.2 - 1.4 mt | 50% stake | 1.3 - 1.45 bn | 2027 - 2028 | |||||||
North America, Texas, Ingleside | and full | |||||||||||
Partnership with Enbridge | offtake | |||||||||||
New Blue Ammonia2 | ~95% | 0.8 - 1.0 mt | Majority | 1.8 - 2.0 bn | 2028 - 2029 | |||||||
Project | ||||||||||||
stake | ||||||||||||
North America, TBD | ||||||||||||
Sluiskil CCS2 | ~60% | ~0.4 mt | 100% owned | ~0.2 bn | 2025 - 2027 | |||||||
Netherlands | ||||||||||||
- Developing a portfolio that will enable and position Yara's transition to full decarbonization over time.
- Pilot projects in execution in Norway and Australia to prepare for subsequent industrial scale-ups
- Full industrial scale-ups when technology is sufficiently matured and required financial frameworks are in place
The portfolio of asset back supply will be complemented by additional volumes from third party sourcing
1) | Offtake available to Yara | 3) In USD, excluding potential lease classification of offtake agreements | 6 |
2) | Subject to final investment decision |
US ammonia investments are complimentary to Yara's European footprint
Yara current ammonia footprint is flexible
Creating opportunities for Yara to:
US Gulf
- Freeport
- Tringen
Europe
• Norway
• Netherlands
• Finland
• Germany
• France
• Italy
• Belgium
• UK
• Sweden
Latin America
- Cartagena
- Cubatão
NH3 production
Australia
- Pilbara
NH3 import
1) | Fuel parts of the EU production with import of | ||
low-carbon ammonia at competitive cost | |||
2) | |||
Diversify Yara's energy position, with increased | |||
exposure to the US market | |||
3) | |||
Decarbonize nitrate and NPK production | |||
70% of Yara assets in Europe are flexible on ammonia source
7
Growing a Nature Positive Food Future
8
9
Food companies' decarbonization pledges
- Reduce scope 3 emissions by 21% by 2030
- Reduce emissions across our value chain (scope 1, 2 and 3) by 30% by 2030 .
- Reach net zero across our value chain by 2040
- By 2025, we will reduce our emissions (scope 1, 2 and 3) by 20%
- By 2030, we will reduce our emissions (scope 1, 2 and 3) by 50%
- Reach net zero across our value chain by 2050
- Reduce scope 3 GHG emissions by 40% by 2030
- Achieve net-zero emissions by 2040
- Reduce absolute scope 3 GHG emissions by 42% by 2030
- Reach net zero emissions by 2050 across our full value chain
- Reduce scope 3 GHG emissions 31% per tonne of finished product by 2030
10
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Yara International ASA published this content on 23 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 24 October 2023 09:09:40 UTC.