Vietnam Investments : Monthly Report

VIETNAM MONTHLY REPORT

30 September 2023

ECONOMY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

Services shine as GDP slowly climbs

USD pitches a swerve ball to Asian banks

The SBV steps up to the plate

Global fluctuations temper growth

Vietnam's 3Q23 GDP expanded by 5.3% YoY, showing recovery is gaining momentum on a quarterly basis (+3.3% YoY in 1Q23, +4.1% YoY in 2Q23) (fig. 2). This resurgence can be largely attributed to the services sector, improving 6.3% YoY. Total retail sales in the third quarter rose by 7.3% YoY, while passenger and freight transportation both increased by 13.1% and 14.6%, respectively. International visitors to Vietnam are estimated at 8.9m YTD, and although 4.7 times higher than 9M22, this still only accounts for 69% of 9M19 figures. The industrial construction sector increased by 5.2% as global demand remains weak, the property market slowly recovers, and the financial markets had a shaky third quarter.

Global markets' focus was pulled to the strengthening of the DXY from 103.6 to 107. This increase, coupled with rising 10Y UST yields from 4.1% to 4.8%, came as the Fed signalled rates could remain higher for longer. While most Asian central banks maintain negative rate differentials with the Fed to stimulate economic activities, these external factors led to currency depreciations across the board in Q3, including the THB (-3.5%), JPY (-3.5%), TWD (-3.5%), IDR (-3.1%), and KRW (-2.8%) (fig. 3). In a bid to mitigate further currency depreciation, some banks increased interbank rates, including China's PBoC, Bank of Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia, or hiked policy rates to narrow the negative gap in the case of the Bank of Thailand.

This also applies to the SBV. Although the fundamentals remain strong, the same factors caused the VND to fall 3.3% in 3Q23 to nearly 24,400 VND, and the SBV issued bills totalling $5.7bn, leading to the 1-month interbank interest rate increasing from 0.7-0.8% in early September to 2.5-2.7% as of 6 October. We believe the devaluation to maintain competitiveness and bill issuances are normal operations and not a sign of policy change; the SBV has issued numerous bills in the past as a means of money supply management. Excess liquidity in the banking sector is evident, however, as some banks reported a drop in deposit rates of 10-20bps. Despite this, domestic interest rates could become volatile if global market movements continue to fluctuate, particularly in the case of a rising USD and 10Y UST yields setting new records.

Battling the challenges of higher rates and a muted China, global economies, inclusive of Vietnam, need more time to recover. A confluence of external pressures on the VND, compounded by September's inflation uptick of +1.1% MoM (fig. 4), suggests that shifts in the SBV's monetary policy will be minimal. Factoring in these constraints, we've adjusted our FY23 GDP forecast down to 5.0%, before the benefits of recent economic agreements and diplomatic relations bring growth back to its long-term trajectory of 6.0-6.5% next year.

Fig. 1	ECONOMIC FORECASTS
30	-Sep-	23	Unit	2021	2022E	2023E	2024F
Real GDP Growth	%	2.6	8.0	5.0	6.0
Nominal GDP	$bn	366.1	408.8	446.4	489.8
CPI (average)	%	1.8	3.2	4.0	4.0
Export Growth (cif)	%	19.0	10.6	-5.5	12.0
Import Growth (cif)	%	26.7	8.4	-9.9	11.8
Trade Bal (cif)	$bn	3.3	12.4	26.4	30.2
FX Reserves	$bn	106.5	85.0	95.0	110.0
FDI Disbursed	$bn	19.8	22.4	20.9	22.0
VND:$	1	22,800	23,550	24,500	24,300

Fig. 3 VND DECLINED IN LINE WITH ASIAN CURRENCIES

Fig. 2					3Q23 GDP EXPANDED 5.3% YOY
16
%									13.7
14
12
10
8						7.8
		5.1								5.9								5.3
6
												3.3		4.1
4
2
0
		1Q22	2Q22	3Q22	4Q22	1Q23	2Q23	3Q23
Fig. 4				VIETNAM CPI TICKS UP SLIGHTLY

% YoY								MYR	6.0
							$bn
								CNY
								5.0
								INR
								PHP	4.0
								KRW
								VND	3.0
								IDR	2.0
								JPY
								THB	1.0
								TWD
(4.0)	(3.5)	(3.0)	(2.5)	(2.0)	(1.5)	(1.0)	(0.5)	0.0	0.0
Sep-22	Nov-22	Jan-23	Mar-23	May-23	Jul-23	Sep-23

UCITS HAVE NO GUARANTEED RETURN AND PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE PERFORMANCE

1

VIETNAM MONTHLY REPORT

30 September 2023

MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

VNI sold off from a one-year high

Emerging markets see increase in outflows

Macro factors drive market mood

Sectors muted ahead of Q3 earnings

The good, the bad, and the Fed

September proved a challenging month for the VNI, dropping 6.6% in TR$ terms. The early positive momentum, which peaked at a near one-yearhigh of 1,245.5 in the first week, succumbed to a blend of domestic and international pressures, prompting heavy profit taking.

The negative return was triggered by the Fed hinting there could be more hikes down the road to combat inflation. As a result, bond yields surged to break 15-year resistance levels as the market tried to play catch up with the 'higher for longer' narrative. Vietnam, as observed in other EM markets, immediately saw an increase of foreign selling as the DXY strengthened. For the whole of September, foreigners net sold $185m on the VNI, up 72.9% MoM, whereas Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea saw outflows of $616m, $263m and $1.7bn, respectively.

During such macro-driven selling, Vietnam's equity markets tend to strongly correlate with the US. With the exception of energy, all sectors were down for the month, as local investors feared that the easing of domestic monetary conditions could not be sustained, and chose to cut down risk. This is typical momentum-driven behaviour rather than any particular market or sectoral concern. Market sentiment was not helped by the SBV's bill issuance, and major brokers scaled back on margin lending, leading to volume trailing off at the end of the month.

The real estate sector was the worst performer on the VNI, down 15.6% MoM in September, as

1. a major developer continued to struggle with bond restructuring, a stark reminder that it will not be an overnight process, and (2) investors started swapping from turnaround stories driven by policy support towards stronger asset quality and clearer earnings visibility.

In our coverage universe, preliminary Q3 results are weaker than expected. The banking sector is finding it difficult to increase credit growth, but NPLs are anticipated to decrease from Q4 after peaking in Q3, and companies with foreign loans battle with FX loss due to a falling VND. The silver lining is positive QoQ momentum in retail, brokerages, steel, and chemicals.

With the Fed nearing the end of its hiking cycle and global economic conditions showing signs of weakness, we anticipate a lot of volatility both globally and domestically. Nonetheless, we believe that Vietnam's supportive monetary setting will remain in place. Our tracking systems of interbank rates, deposit rates, and corporate bond rates have yet to show signs of any red flags. Therefore, we believe that once Q3 earnings results are released and the global landscape calms, the VNI will return to its normalised alpha-driven direction.

Fig. 1	DC TOP-80 FORECASTS				Fig. 2				MARKET PERFORMANCE
										2,000								1600
30-Sep-23	Unit		2021	2022	2023E	2024F			$m			VNI
		1,800				1500
PER	x	14.5	9.1	10.8	8.7		1,600					Volume (LHS)		1400
														Index (RHS)
EPS Growth	%		37.1	-1.4	2.8	24.1		1,400						1300
PEG	x	0.4	Neg	3.9	0.4		1,200							1200
Sales Growth	%		22.0	12.3	2.5	13.8		1,000							1100
EBIT Growth	%	50.8	2.5	8.7	23.7		800							1000
PBT Growth	%		38.0	1.5	2.4	24.6		600							900
NPAT Growth	%	41.9	0.0	3.2	24.1		400							800
									200							700
Net DER	x		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2
Yield	%	1.0	1.9	1.4	1.3		-								600
	Jan-20May-20Oct-20Mar-21Aug-21Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Apr-23Sep-23
Fig. 3		VNI TRAILING 5Y PE				Fig. 4				VNI MONTHLY VOLUME
28										24.00
											$bn
26										21.00
24										18.00
22										15.00
20
									12.00
18
									9.00
16
									6.00
14
									3.00
12
									-
10
												Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23
Jan-17Sep-17May-18Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23Sep-23

Sources: DC, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / Refinitiv - all adjusted for free float

2

VIETNAM MONTHLY REPORT

30 September 2023

VIETNAM ENTERPRISE INVESTMENTS LIMITED - VEIL

VEIL retracted by 5.5% in September, outpacing the VNI by 1.1%. Dominating market sentiment were the global factors of escalating oil prices and fluctuations in the DXY.

The Oil and Gas sector showcased strength, largely credited to the ascending trajectory of oil prices, leading to GAS surging 9.5%. Following the recent rally in the property sector, spurred on by supportive Government policies, property names including VHM and KDH were notable laggards. Pronounced selling was triggered in the rate sensitive sector as worries of what a higher for longer Fed rate may do to local mortgage rates, and the slow progress of bond restructuring by NVL. As we approach 4Q23, prominent names within the sector are gearing up for forthcoming launches. Future performance may diverge as investors' focus will be on those that have better execution capability and can bring new supply into the market in the coming quarters. VEIL heads into 4Q23 with a sense of optimism as we expect the recovery of economic activities to gain steam in 4Q23, and certain sectors are ready to capture this growth:

Construction & materials: As Infrastructure spending takes centre stage in the drive to boost the economy, these sectors are poised to do well. The fund's biggest representative in the sector, HPG, has seen consistent increase in sales volume since April-23, culminating in a YTD high in September, and we expect this trend to continue into 4Q23.

Banking: Valuation for the banking sector is approaching an all time low as concerns over asset quality remain. We expect 3Q23 will mark the nadir in terms of NPLs and provisions, with signs of resilience in both earnings and margins. The sector will play a central role in the recovery of overall economic activities in 4Q23 with credit demand expected to strongly recover.

Consumer: In F&B, the recent rebranding of VNM is expected to reflect positively in its bottom line from 3Q23 into 4Q23. We also expect to see increased spending in the retail space, benefitting MWG & PNJ.

PRICE AND NAV DATA

		Net							Cash				Price				NAV change (%)				Price Change (%)						Sharpe
					NAV/share			Std. Dev.
	Assets				(%	of AUM)			EOD			Monthly			YTD			Monthly			YTD						Ratio
$1,797.8m	$8.85		2.53			-			-5.5%		12.7%	-5.6%		3.3%		23.96		0.32
£1,472.9m	£7.25				£5.93	-1.8%		11.0%	-2.0%		1.7%		-		-

45.0

NAV PERFORMANCE (in $ terms)

35.0

• TR$ - 30/09/2023
  VEIL (NAV)

31.9

34.3

25.0

15.0

5.0

-5.0

VNI (benchmark)

VN30 (comp)

12.712.714.4

2.2 0.4 1.1

0.7 1.7 1.0

27.1

23.6

18.119.6

-15.0

-5.5 -6.6-6.5

1M

3M

YTD

1Y

3Y

5Y

	TOP TEN HOLDINGS (61.6% of NAV)		DISCOUNT TO NAV
	COMPANY	SECTOR	VNI %	NAV %	CH %	20
	%
1	VP Bank	Banks	3.2	11.1	2.8
10
2	Hoa Phat	Mat's/Res	3.4	8.7	-5.5	0
3	Vietcombank	Banks	10.9	7.6	-2.6
(10)
4	ACB	Banks	1.9	7.4	-4.1
5	Mobile World	Retail	1.7	6.2	-3.0	(20)
6	FPT Corporation	Software/Svc's 2.6	5.7	-4.8	(30)
7	PV Gas	Energy	3.9	4.4	9.5
8	Vinhomes	Real Estate	4.4	3.9	-17.5	(40)
9	Vinamilk	F & B	3.4	3.5	-5.4	(50)
10	Khang Dien House Real Estate	0.5	3.1	-12.4	Jan-05May-07Sep-09Jan-12May-14Sep-16Jan-19May-21Sep-23

3

VIETNAM MONTHLY REPORT

30 September 2023

APPENDIX 1: MACRO

Key Indicators

Item	Unit	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
GDP	$bn	281.4	310.1	334.4	346.6	366.1	408.8	446.4	489.8
Real GDP Growth	%	6.9	7.5	7.4	2.9	2.6	8.0	5.0	6.0
Services Growth	%	7.4	7.0	7.3	2.5	1.2	10.0	6.9	8.0
Agriculture Growth	%	2.9	3.8	2.0	2.8	2.9	3.4	2.6	2.8
Ind'l and Const'n Growth	%	8.0	8.9	8.9	3.3	4.1	7.8	3.5	5.0
Retail Sales Growth	%	10.9	11.7	11.8	2.6	-3.8	10.2	8.3	8.5
				Prices
CPI (Average YoY)	%	3.5	3.5	2.8	3.2	1.8	3.2	4.0	4.0
			Money, FX & Interest Rates
Money Supply M2	%	15.0	12.4	14.8	14.5	8.9	6.2	9.0	10.5
Average Lending Rate	%	9.3	9.5	9.7	8.6	8.5	13.7	10.5	10.0
5-yr VGB	%	4.3	4.5	1.9	1.1	0.9	4.7	2.2	2.5
VND : $	$1	22,750	23,235	23,150	23,085	22,800	23,550	24,500	24,300
				External Sector
Trade Balance	$bn	2.1	6.8	10.8	19.9	3.3	12.4	26.4	30.2
Current Account	$bn	-1.6	5.8	12.2	15.1	-7.8	-1.5	17.4	20.7
Current Account / GDP	%	-0.6	1.9	3.6	4.3	-2.1	-0.4	3.9	4.2
FDI Registered	$bn	35.9	35.5	36.0	28.5	38.5	27.7	25.2	28.0
FDI Disbursement	$bn	17.5	19.1	20.4	20.0	19.8	22.4	20.9	22.0
FX Reserves	$bn	52.0	61.0	80.0	98.0	106.5	85.0	95.0	110.0
			Public Debt & Fiscal Balance
External Debt	$bn	109.2	112.1	122.8	130.1	138.8	141.2	132.0	140.3
Government	$bn	46.3	47.0	47.7	49.0	47.9	48.8	41.4	44.5
Enterprises (incl. FDI)	$bn	62.9	65.1	75.0	81.1	90.9	92.4	90.6	95.8
External Debt (% GDP)	%	38.8	36.2	36.7	37.5	37.9	34.5	29.1	28.6
Fiscal Balance (% GDP)	%	-2.6	-2.9	-2.6	-3.4	-4.0	-4.3	-6.0	-4.5

4

VIETNAM MONTHLY REPORT

30 September 2023

APPENDIX 2: MARKET

Key Stock Market Data

	HSX		HNX		UPCoM		Total
	30-Sep-22	30-Sep-23	30-Sep-22	30-Sep-23	30-Sep-22	30-Sep-23	30-Sep-22	30-Sep-23
Market Cap ($m)	188,726		190,397	12,648		13,035	48,222		44,568	249,596		247,982
Number of Stocks	400		394	341		330	857		859	1,598		1,583
Number of Large Cap Stocks (> $400m)	65		67	8		11	19		18	92		96
Stocks with No Room for Foreigners	52		61	66		94	177		223	295		378
Market Cap of Stocks with No Room ($m)	34,046		23,323	2,592		2,026	11,991		13,082	48,629		38,431
Share of Market Cap with No Room (%)	18.0		12.3	20.5		15.5	24.9		29.4	19.5		15.5

Top 25 Companies

						30-Sep			Price			Mkt			Wt								PER												PBV												Yield
	No		Company			Price			YTD			Cap		in VNI			2022		2023E			2024F			2022		2023E			2024F			2022			2023E			2024F
						(VND)			(%)			($m)			(%)					(x)				(x)				(x)				(x)				(x)				(x)			(%)			(%)				(%)
1	Vietcombank	87,500		29.2		20,150	10.85		14.4		15.7		13.5		2.8	2.9		2.4		0.9		-		-
2	BIDV	44,350		14.9		9,244	4.98		14.1		13.6		11.1		2.0	2.0		1.7		0.2		-		-
3	PV Gas	90,700		11.1		8,583	3.85		12.9		18.5		18.9		3.1	3.2		3.0		3.0		3.2		3.2
4	Vinhomes	45,500		-5.2		8,163	4.40		7.2		6.5		6.1		1.4	1.1		1.0		4.5		-		-
5	Vingroup	46,850		-12.9		7,362	3.96		23.4		28.0		24.3		1.9	1.5		1.4		1.7		-		-
6	Airports Corporation VN	74,900		-11.5		6,718	-		29.0		26.4		20.5		4.2	3.2		2.7		-		-		-
7	Vinamilk	74,200		0.7		6,390	3.44		20.3		20.0		18.1		5.2	4.8		4.7		5.1		3.3		5.2
8	Hoa Phat	26,300		46.1		6,301	3.39		12.6		19.5		11.2		1.1	1.5		1.3		2.2		-		-
9	VP Bank	21,700		21.2		6,002	3.25		6.6		11.8		8.5		1.2	1.1		1.0		-		5.6		3.6
10	Vietinbank	30,050		10.3		5,950	3.20		9.2		8.9		7.4		1.2	1.2		1.0		2.9		-		-
11	Techcombank	33,650		30.2		4,877	2.63		4.7		7.1		5.7		0.8	0.9		0.8		0.1		-		-
12	FPT Corporation	92,800		42.0		4,856	2.61		17.0		20.2		16.1		3.9	4.5		3.9		2.6		2.8		3.3
13	Masan Group	76,300		-18.0		4,498	2.42		37.1		104.3		46.8		5.1	3.9		3.5		1.0		1.1		1.1
14	MB Bank	18,500		27.6		3,975	2.14		4.5		4.8		4.0		1.0	1.0		0.8		-		-		-
15	Sabeco	72,500		-11.8		3,831	1.03		20.6		21.6		18.6		4.6	3.7		3.4		2.3		2.6		2.6
16	ACB	21,850		19.4		3,497	1.88		5.3		5.2		4.4		1.2	1.1		0.9		-		-		-
17	Mobile World	52,600		23.8		3,170	1.71		15.2		57.8		16.3		2.6	3.0		2.6		1.2		-		1.0
18	Becamex IDC	69,500		-13.8		2,964	1.60		49.5		51.8		29.2		4.9	4.1		3.7		0.9		1.0		1.0
19	Binh Son Refining	21,800		70.1		2,785	-		2.7		8.1		11.8		0.8	1.2		1.1		3.3		4.5		4.5
20	Vincom Retail	26,100		-0.8		2,444	1.35		21.5		12.9		12.5		1.8	1.6		1.4		-		-		-
21	Sacombank	30,650		36.2		2,381	1.28		8.4		7.2		4.9		1.1	1.2		1.0		-		-		-
22	Vietjet Air	99,300		-9.3		2,216	1.19			neg	38.6		32.6		4.0	3.3		2.8		-		-		-
23	HD Bank	17,350		31.9		2,068	1.12		4.9		5.8		4.9		1.0	1.1		0.9		-		-		-
24	VEAM Corp	37,500		-8.1		2,053	-		7.2		7.5		6.8		2.2	1.9		2.0		11.1		11.8		15.4
25	VIB	19,350		30.7		2,023	1.09		4.5		5.1		4.2		1.1	1.2		1.0		-		-		-

5