Projected Income Statement: Swatch Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,556 -2,538 -1,986 -1,374 -1,193 -1,206 -1,213 -1,120
Change - 0.7% 21.75% 30.82% 13.17% -1.09% -0.58% 7.67%
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 295 387 785 549 451 423.8 424.5 436.7
Change - 31.19% 102.84% -30.06% -17.85% -6.03% 0.17% 2.86%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,003 337 -170 -216 56 449.3 585.6 420.6
Change - -66.4% -150.45% -27.06% 125.93% 702.32% 30.34% -28.18%
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.95% 20.87% 20.04% 10.69% 8.89% 12.02% 14.43% 15.82%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.96% 15.44% 15.1% 4.51% 2.15% 5.84% 8.27% 9.61%
EBT Margin (%) 13.82% 14.62% 14.6% 5.12% 2.52% 5.93% 7.95% 9.28%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 10.76% 11.02% 2.87% 0.05% 4.26% 5.68% 6.03%
FCF margin (%) 13.72% 4.49% -2.16% -3.21% 0.89% 6.95% 8.64% 5.94%
FCF / Net Income (%) 131.11% 41.76% -19.56% -111.92% 1,866.67% 162.91% 152.04% 98.56%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.76% 5.85% 6.18% 1.37% 0.02% 0.98% 1.6% 1.96%
ROE 6.82% 6.86% 7.19% 1.59% 0.03% 2.23% 3.11% 3.62%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.03% 5.16% 9.95% 8.15% 7.18% 6.55% 6.26% 6.17%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.22% 24.73% 49.65% 76.25% 80.82% 54.53% 43.39% 39.01%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.41% 114.84% -461.76% -254.17% 805.36% 94.33% 72.5% 103.82%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 25.06 13.96 11.86 6.44 9.76 11.36 14 16.76
Change - -44.29% -15.04% -45.7% 51.55% 16.38% 23.23% 19.7%
Dividend per Share 1 5.5 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 4.586 5.084 5.536
Change - 9.09% 8.33% -30.77% 0% 1.92% 10.85% 8.88%
Book Value Per Share 1 224.1 232.6 236.4 236.4 224.5 223.6 225.8 229.5
Change - 3.76% 1.65% -0.01% -5.01% -0.41% 0.96% 1.66%
EPS 1 14.77 15.56 16.75 3.74 0.05 5.38 7.854 9.787
Change - 5.35% 7.65% -77.67% -98.66% 10,659.04% 46% 24.61%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 51,771 51,808 51,836 51,872 51,767 51,996 51,996 51,996
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 37.2x 25.5x
PBR 0.89x 0.89x
EV / Sales 1.42x 1.35x
Yield 2.29% 2.54%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
UNDERPERFORM
Number of Analysts
20
Last Close Price
200.10CHF
Average target price
168.64CHF
Spread / Average Target
-15.72%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise