Valuation

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Capitalization 1 6,04,135 6,43,989 6,25,239 6,73,122 7,04,756 7,05,010 - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 8,16,105 8,88,812 7,28,991 10,28,106 11,24,062 12,44,866 12,58,967 12,62,430
P/E ratio 12.5 x 37.4 x 11.6 x 6.27 x 19.1 x 12.6 x 11.2 x 10.3 x
Yield 2.41% 2.24% 3.47% 5.31% 3.74% 3.74% 3.82% 3.98%
Capitalization / Revenue 0.28 x 0.31 x 0.35 x 0.26 x 0.31 x 0.28 x 0.28 x 0.27 x
EV / Revenue 0.38 x 0.43 x 0.41 x 0.39 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.49 x 0.48 x
EV / EBITDA 6.19 x 7.48 x 5.79 x 4.81 x - 5.3 x 5.1 x 4.94 x
EV / FCF -32.4 x -172 x 5.01 x 4.88 x - 38.8 x 9.75 x 9.93 x
FCF Yield -3.09% -0.58% 20% 20.5% - 2.58% 10.3% 10.1%
Price to Book 1.12 x 1.19 x 0.98 x 0.89 x 0.88 x 0.86 x 0.82 x 0.79 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 94,102 92,928 90,483 89,273 87,941 87,939 - -
Reference price 2 6,420 6,930 6,910 7,540 8,014 8,017 8,017 8,017
Announcement Date 26/04/19 28/04/20 14/02/22 14/02/23 14/02/24 - - -
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net sales 1 21,38,501 20,80,352 17,63,282 26,18,659 22,39,017 25,01,322 25,53,491 26,19,884
EBITDA 1 1,31,745 1,18,873 1,25,973 2,13,680 - 2,34,927 2,47,035 2,55,555
EBIT 1 79,598 59,224 68,754 1,55,510 81,256 82,608 93,994 1,01,498
Operating Margin 3.72% 2.85% 3.9% 5.94% 3.63% 3.3% 3.68% 3.87%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 77,850 38,392 79,283 1,60,168 61,208 80,061 91,766 98,951
Net income 1 49,330 17,409 54,049 1,08,318 37,050 55,420 62,057 67,321
Net margin 2.31% 0.84% 3.07% 4.14% 1.65% 2.22% 2.43% 2.57%
EPS 2 515.1 185.1 595.2 1,202 418.6 634.4 716.0 780.6
Free Cash Flow 1 -25,185 -5,166 1,45,471 2,10,798 - 32,118 1,29,094 1,27,197
FCF margin -1.18% -0.25% 8.25% 8.05% - 1.28% 5.06% 4.86%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA) - - 115.48% 98.65% - 13.67% 52.26% 49.77%
FCF Conversion (Net income) - - 269.15% 194.61% - 57.96% 208.03% 188.94%
Dividend per Share 2 155.0 155.0 240.0 400.0 300.0 300.0 306.2 319.3
Announcement Date 26/04/19 28/04/20 14/02/22 14/02/23 14/02/24 - - -
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 S2 2020 S1 2020 S2 2021 S1 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 S1 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 S1 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4
Net sales 1 10,98,166 10,38,952 10,41,400 9,64,464 5,59,188 6,59,063 6,43,136 6,55,796 12,98,932 6,64,665 6,56,149 5,78,016 5,53,850 11,31,866 5,43,486 5,63,665 5,84,655 6,01,487 6,34,752 6,91,206
EBITDA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT 1 45,575 29,128 30,096 20,875 16,175 32,454 35,823 31,912 67,735 32,934 28,047 20,961 16,060 42,249 18,128 8,656 14,475 20,925 23,925 21,625
Operating Margin 4.15% 2.8% 2.89% 2.16% 2.89% 4.92% 5.57% 4.87% 5.21% 4.95% 4.27% 3.63% 2.9% 3.73% 3.34% 1.54% 2.48% 3.48% 3.77% 3.13%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) - 30,103 - - 23,170 - 35,153 - 1,37,067 34,821 - 23,386 17,961 41,347 11,102 8,759 - - - -
Net income - 19,010 - - 15,417 - 21,339 73,325 94,664 22,988 -7,843 13,320 12,127 25,447 5,073 6,530 - - - -
Net margin - 1.83% - - 2.76% - 3.32% 11.18% 7.29% 3.46% -1.2% 2.3% 2.19% 2.25% 0.93% 1.16% - - - -
EPS 2 - 201.1 - - 170.2 258.6 235.8 810.4 1,046 255.5 -82.83 149.4 136.4 285.8 58.27 74.51 79.28 167.1 191.1 191.1
Dividend per Share - 75.00 - 90.00 - - - 250.0 250.0 - 150.0 - - 150.0 - - - - - -
Announcement Date 26/04/19 31/10/19 28/04/20 13/08/21 12/11/21 14/02/22 12/05/22 10/08/22 10/08/22 09/11/22 14/02/23 12/05/23 09/08/23 09/08/23 13/11/23 14/02/24 - - - -
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net Debt 1 2,11,970 2,44,823 1,03,752 3,54,984 4,19,306 5,39,856 5,53,957 5,57,420
Net Cash position 1 - - - - - - - -
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.609 x 2.06 x 0.8236 x 1.661 x - 2.298 x 2.242 x 2.181 x
Free Cash Flow 1 -25,185 -5,166 1,45,471 2,10,798 - 32,119 1,29,095 1,27,197
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) 9.2% 3.2% 8.87% 15.9% 4.8% 6.83% 7.52% 7.77%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) 5.62% 3.76% 4.23% 7.66% - 2.78% 3.06% 3.21%
Assets 1 8,78,117 4,62,962 12,77,476 14,14,941 - 19,95,517 20,29,457 20,98,554
Book Value Per Share 2 5,750 5,805 7,035 8,485 9,098 9,371 9,721 10,198
Cash Flow per Share 2 1,060 819.0 485.0 2,773 2,142 1,589 2,083 2,126
Capex 1 97,883 1,03,372 55,877 84,408 72,984 85,000 93,333 90,000
Capex / Sales 4.58% 4.97% 3.17% 3.22% 3.26% 3.4% 3.66% 3.44%
Announcement Date 26/04/19 28/04/20 14/02/22 14/02/23 14/02/24 - - -
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B-
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
8,017 JPY
Average target price
8,939 JPY
Spread / Average Target
+11.50%
Consensus
  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. 9147 Stock
  4. Financials Nippon Express Holdings Inc.