Financials Incitec Pivot Limited

Equities

IPL

AU000000IPL1

Diversified Chemicals

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 11:40:41 02/05/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2.78 ^AUD	0.00%		-0.36%	-2.11%

04/04	QEM Extracts Pure Vanadium Pentoxide from Industrial Waste; Shares Up 3%	MT
16/02	Incitec Pivot Warns of Lower Earnings From Fertilizer Business	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	5,444	3,943	5,710	6,817	6,099	5,399	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	7,524	5,426	6,727	7,766	7,431	6,136	6,559	6,461
P/E ratio	35.7 x	28.6 x	38.2 x	6.74 x	10.9 x	14.4 x	13.4 x	12.7 x
Yield	1.39%	-	3.16%	7.69%	4.78%	4.75%	3.78%	3.86%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.39 x	1 x	1.31 x	1.08 x	1.02 x	1 x	1.01 x	1.01 x
EV / Revenue	1.92 x	1.38 x	1.55 x	1.23 x	1.24 x	1.13 x	1.22 x	1.21 x
EV / EBITDA	12.4 x	7.43 x	7.2 x	4.18 x	6.11 x	6.82 x	7.15 x	7.04 x
EV / FCF	113 x	20.3 x	22.8 x	11.8 x	36.1 x	11.5 x	11.9 x	11.6 x
FCF Yield	0.89%	4.91%	4.39%	8.49%	2.77%	8.68%	8.4%	8.65%
Price to Book	1.16 x	0.76 x	1.06 x	1.08 x	0.95 x	0.88 x	0.84 x	0.8 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	16,05,784	19,42,225	19,42,225	19,42,225	19,42,225	19,42,225	-	-
Reference price ²	3.390	2.030	2.940	3.510	3.140	2.780	2.780	2.780
Announcement Date	11/11/19	09/11/20	14/11/21	14/11/22	12/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	3,918	3,942	4,348	6,315	6,008	5,426	5,371	5,336
EBITDA ¹	605.3	730.5	934.9	1,858	1,215	899.2	916.9	918.4
EBIT ¹	303.7	374.5	566.4	1,485	879.8	535.7	553.8	554.8
Operating Margin	7.75%	9.5%	13.03%	23.52%	14.64%	9.87%	10.31%	10.4%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	159.6	150.9	160.2	1,359	317.4	423.3	424.7	443.4
Net income ¹	152.4	123.4	149.1	1,014	560	357.8	352.2	362
Net margin	3.89%	3.13%	3.43%	16.05%	9.32%	6.59%	6.56%	6.78%
EPS ²	0.0950	0.0710	0.0770	0.5210	0.2880	0.1937	0.2067	0.2193
Free Cash Flow ¹	66.7	266.7	295.2	659.3	205.7	532.5	551.1	558.7
FCF margin	1.7%	6.77%	6.79%	10.44%	3.42%	9.82%	10.26%	10.47%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	11.02%	36.51%	31.58%	35.49%	16.92%	59.23%	60.11%	60.84%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	43.77%	216.13%	197.99%	65.04%	36.73%	148.85%	156.47%	154.35%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0470	-	0.0930	0.2700	0.1500	0.1320	0.1050	0.1074
Announcement Date	11/11/19	09/11/20	14/11/21	14/11/22	12/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	2,176	1,848	2,094	1,724	1,319	1,319	2,624	1,283	1,283	2,548	1,949	1,949	3,767	3,055	2,953	1,309	1,265	2,288	1,426	1,427	2,870	1,237	2,462	2,749
EBITDA	341.1	338	392.5	285.7	-	-	649.2	-	-	751.4	-	-	1,106	724.3	491.1	-	-	346	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	185	159	215.5	110.2	-	-	456.2	-	-	568.2	-	-	917	551.6	328.2	-	-	210.6	-	-	366.7	-	269.4	316.9
Operating Margin	8.5%	8.6%	10.29%	6.39%	-	-	17.38%	-	-	22.3%	-	-	24.34%	18.06%	11.11%	-	-	9.2%	-	-	12.77%	-	10.94%	11.53%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	108.5	83.9	67	-	-	-	113.5	-	-	522.4	-	-	836.4	479	-161.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	110.5	65	58.4	36.4	-	-	112.7	-	-	384.1	-	-	629.6	353.6	206.4	-	-	200	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	5.08%	3.52%	2.79%	2.11%	-	-	4.29%	-	-	15.07%	-	-	16.71%	11.57%	6.99%	-	-	8.74%	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.0690	0.0400	0.0310	-	-	-	0.0580	0.1000	0.1000	0.1970	0.1600	0.1600	0.3240	0.1820	0.1060	-	-	0.1040	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	0.0340	-	-	-	0.0400	0.0400	0.0830	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0900	0.0900	0.1700	0.1000	0.0500	-	-	0.0380	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/11/19	10/05/20	09/11/20	16/05/21	14/11/22	14/11/21	14/11/21	22/05/22	22/05/22	22/05/22	14/11/22	14/11/22	14/11/22	16/05/23	12/11/23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	2,080	1,484	1,017	949	1,332	737	1,159	1,062
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3.436 x	2.031 x	1.088 x	0.5106 x	1.096 x	0.8195 x	1.264 x	1.156 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	66.7	267	295	659	206	533	551	559
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3.23%	3.81%	6.78%	17.6%	9.16%	5.77%	6.18%	6.32%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.66%	2.02%	3.84%	10.1%	5.44%	4.57%	4.9%	4.94%
Assets ¹	9,167	6,121	3,884	9,995	10,298	7,830	7,188	7,322
Book Value Per Share ²	2.920	2.680	2.760	3.240	3.310	3.160	3.300	3.490
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.2600	0.3100	0.3300	0.5600	0.3600	0.4000	0.4400	0.4600
Capex ¹	348	278	355	434	495	355	345	345
Capex / Sales	8.88%	7.06%	8.16%	6.87%	8.24%	6.55%	6.43%	6.47%
Announcement Date	11/11/19	09/11/20	14/11/21	14/11/22	12/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Incitec Pivot Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.78 AUD

Average target price

3.058 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+10.01%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Diversified Chemicals

	1st Jan change	Capi.
INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED	-2.11%	3.51B
SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO., LTD.	+1.22%	76.93B
DUPONT DE NEMOURS, INC.	+1.79%	32.74B
PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LIMITED	+10.05%	18.58B
BRENNTAG SE	-10.43%	11.54B
EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY	+5.50%	11.14B
SYENSQO SA/NV	-7.36%	9.8B
ASAHI KASEI CORPORATION	+5.97%	9.72B
SRF LIMITED	+7.57%	9.3B
MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL GROUP CORPORATION	+4.24%	8.3B

Diversified Chemicals