Financials Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V.

Equities

GMEXICO B

MXP370841019

Diversified Mining

End-of-day quote Mexican S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 26/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
106.7 ^MXN	+3.62%		+4.10%	+13.30%

26/04	USMCA Labor Panel Rules in Favor of Mexico in Mine Dispute, Government Says	DJ
25/04	Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capitalization ¹	16,025	21,363	32,940	33,908	27,344	48,384	48,384	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	22,853	26,273	28,057	36,376	29,705	43,263	48,398	47,421
P/E ratio	13.9 x	11.8 x	14.1 x	8.71 x	8.36 x	12.6 x	16.8 x	12.5 x
Yield	7.57%	6.09%	4.07%	7.6%	6.7%	3.99%	4.02%	5.26%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.53 x	2 x	3.02 x	2.29 x	1.97 x	3.01 x	3.16 x	2.79 x
EV / Revenue	2.18 x	2.46 x	2.57 x	2.46 x	2.14 x	3.01 x	3.17 x	2.73 x
EV / EBITDA	4.67 x	5.31 x	5.24 x	4.07 x	4.16 x	6.14 x	5.99 x	5.04 x
EV / FCF	17.9 x	14.1 x	9.09 x	6.97 x	7.9 x	13.6 x	8.66 x	10.2 x
FCF Yield	5.59%	7.11%	11%	14.4%	12.7%	7.35%	11.5%	9.83%
Price to Book	1.32 x	1.77 x	1.99 x	2.14 x	1.38 x	2.87 x	2.55 x	2.35 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	77,85,000	77,85,000	77,85,000	77,85,000	77,85,000	77,85,000	77,85,000	-
Reference price ²	2.058	2.744	4.231	4.356	3.512	6.215	6.215	6.215
Announcement Date	11/02/19	26/02/20	26/01/21	01/02/22	03/02/23	02/02/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net sales ¹	10,495	10,683	10,909	14,777	13,870	14,385	15,289	17,359
EBITDA ¹	4,892	4,948	5,352	8,927	7,141	7,041	8,081	9,406
EBIT ¹	3,601	3,491	4,671	7,533	6,037	5,877	6,553	7,877
Operating Margin	34.31%	32.68%	42.82%	50.98%	43.52%	40.86%	42.86%	45.38%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,504	3,452	4,140	7,041	5,621	5,687	5,363	6,590
Net income ¹	1,149	1,810	2,302	3,868	3,255	3,398	3,396	3,938
Net margin	10.95%	16.94%	21.1%	26.18%	23.47%	23.62%	22.21%	22.69%
EPS ²	0.1476	0.2325	0.3000	0.5000	0.4200	0.4400	0.3700	0.4982
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,277	1,867	3,086	5,221	3,759	3,647	5,586	4,662
FCF margin	12.17%	17.48%	28.29%	35.33%	27.1%	24.87%	36.54%	26.86%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	26.11%	37.74%	57.67%	58.48%	52.64%	49.97%	69.13%	49.57%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	111.15%	103.14%	134.05%	134.96%	115.48%	122.5%	164.5%	118.37%
Dividend per Share ²	0.1558	0.1672	0.1721	0.3312	0.2354	0.2477	0.2500	0.3267
Announcement Date	11/02/19	26/02/20	26/01/21	01/02/22	03/02/23	02/02/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	3,914	3,652	3,776	3,764	3,203	3,115	3,788	3,862	3,454	3,647	3,422	3,722	3,791	3,876	3,969
EBITDA ¹	2,417	2,181	2,190	2,205	1,421	1,424	2,092	2,106	1,628	1,782	1,526	1,738	1,724	1,779	1,918
EBIT ¹	2,073	1,725	1,885	2,012	1,120	1,123	1,782	1,805	1,359	1,473	1,240	1,319	1,357	1,454	1,555
Operating Margin	52.97%	47.24%	49.93%	53.46%	34.95%	36.06%	47.04%	46.73%	39.35%	40.4%	36.24%	35.42%	35.8%	37.5%	39.17%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,952	1,598	1,761	1,890	1,010	1,010	1,711	1,742	1,305	1,432	1,207	-	1,264	1,330	1,502
Net income ¹	1,027	843.6	901.2	1,018	610.9	587.3	1,039	1,103	839.9	697.6	757.4	671.6	737	781	894
Net margin	26.23%	23.1%	23.86%	27.05%	19.07%	18.85%	27.44%	28.57%	24.32%	19.13%	22.13%	18.04%	19.44%	20.15%	22.52%
EPS ²	0.1300	0.1100	0.1200	0.1300	0.0800	0.0800	0.1300	0.1400	0.1100	0.0900	0.1000	0.0945	0.1016	0.1134	0.1250
Dividend per Share ²	0.0751	0.0866	0.0850	0.0734	0.0487	0.0378	0.0554	0.0555	0.0478	-	0.0378	0.0448	0.0397	0.0412	0.0447
Announcement Date	27/07/21	27/10/21	01/02/22	02/05/22	27/07/22	27/10/22	03/02/23	29/04/23	27/07/23	24/10/23	02/02/24	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Debt ¹	6,828	4,910	-	2,468	2,361	1,227	14.6	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	4,883	-	-	-	-	963
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.396 x	0.9923 x	-	0.2764 x	0.3307 x	0.1681 x	0.001806 x	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,277	1,867	3,086	5,221	3,759	3,647	5,586	4,662
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	9.96%	22%	14.4%	25.8%	17.1%	18.1%	20.3%	20.9%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.49%	6.78%	3.9%	12.3%	10%	8.69%	8.72%	10.2%
Assets ¹	25,624	26,685	59,103	31,391	32,552	34,269	38,942	38,428
Book Value Per Share ²	1.560	1.550	2.130	2.030	2.540	2.170	2.440	2.640
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.3800	0.3800	0.5400	0.8500	0.6800	0.6100	0.6700	0.8100
Capex ¹	1,687	1,123	1,113	1,362	1,502	1,657	1,910	1,719
Capex / Sales	16.07%	10.51%	10.2%	9.22%	10.83%	11.3%	12.49%	9.9%
Announcement Date	11/02/19	26/02/20	26/01/21	01/02/22	03/02/23	02/02/24	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

6.215 USD

Average target price

6.012 USD

Spread / Average Target

-3.26%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Integrated Mining

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GRUPO MÉXICO, S.A.B. DE C.V.	+13.30%	48.38B
BHP GROUP LIMITED	-14.40%	143B
RIO TINTO PLC	-6.66%	117B
GLENCORE PLC	-0.55%	71.07B
SAUDI ARABIAN MINING COMPANY (MA'ADEN)	+6.69%	50.97B
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC	+34.12%	39.93B
TECK RESOURCES LIMITED	+22.92%	26.1B
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED	+32.58%	21.36B
IVANHOE MINES LTD.	+58.44%	18.57B
VEDANTA LIMITED	+53.37%	17.66B

Integrated Mining