Financials Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Equities

BABA

US01609W1027

Internet Services

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 01:32:05 27/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
75.55 ^USD	+0.59%		+9.38%	-2.53%

24/04	Chinese Internet Companies Lead the Way in AI Revolution	MT
24/04	Mingxing Electric Power's Chairman Resigns	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	31,73,969	36,95,673	40,27,830	18,54,401	18,00,338	13,32,326	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	31,18,293	34,90,600	38,45,890	18,05,847	17,68,606	10,71,176	9,67,807	8,52,429
P/E ratio	36.7 x	24.6 x	27.2 x	30.3 x	25.6 x	14.2 x	11.9 x	10.4 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	1.34%	1.38%	1.45%
Capitalization / Revenue	8.42 x	7.25 x	5.62 x	2.17 x	2.07 x	1.41 x	1.31 x	1.22 x
EV / Revenue	8.27 x	6.85 x	5.36 x	2.12 x	2.04 x	1.14 x	0.95 x	0.78 x
EV / EBITDA	25.6 x	22.1 x	19.5 x	11.4 x	10.1 x	5.53 x	4.81 x	3.87 x
EV / FCF	29.8 x	24.4 x	20 x	18.3 x	10.3 x	6.37 x	5.66 x	4.03 x
FCF Yield	3.35%	4.1%	5%	5.48%	9.71%	15.7%	17.7%	24.8%
Price to Book	6.42 x	4.79 x	4.35 x	1.98 x	1.87 x	1.32 x	1.17 x	1.05 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	25,92,180	26,83,752	27,11,119	26,87,500	25,65,752	24,33,625	-	-
Reference price ²	1,224	1,377	1,486	690.0	701.7	547.5	547.5	547.5
Announcement Date	15/05/19	22/05/20	13/05/21	26/05/22	18/05/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: März	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	3,76,844	5,09,711	7,17,289	8,53,062	8,68,687	9,42,004	10,13,530	10,92,601
EBITDA ¹	1,21,943	1,57,659	1,96,842	1,58,205	1,75,710	1,93,795	2,01,130	2,20,108
EBIT ¹	57,084	91,430	89,678	69,638	1,00,351	1,20,159	1,42,532	1,59,892
Operating Margin	15.15%	17.94%	12.5%	8.16%	11.55%	12.76%	14.06%	14.63%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	96,221	1,66,645	1,65,578	59,550	89,185	1,20,370	1,40,801	1,60,401
Net income ¹	87,600	1,49,263	1,50,308	61,959	72,509	95,861	1,15,291	1,32,116
Net margin	23.25%	29.28%	20.96%	7.26%	8.35%	10.18%	11.38%	12.09%
EPS ²	33.38	55.93	54.70	22.74	27.46	38.61	46.16	52.59
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,04,478	1,43,109	1,92,263	98,874	1,71,663	1,68,175	1,71,040	2,11,780
FCF margin	27.72%	28.08%	26.8%	11.59%	19.76%	17.85%	16.88%	19.38%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	85.68%	90.77%	97.67%	62.5%	97.7%	86.78%	85.04%	96.22%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	119.27%	95.88%	127.91%	159.58%	236.75%	175.44%	148.35%	160.3%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	7.329	7.549	7.960
Announcement Date	15/05/19	22/05/20	13/05/21	26/05/22	18/05/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	2,00,690	2,42,580	2,04,052	2,05,555	2,07,176	2,47,756	2,08,200	4,55,956	2,34,156	2,24,790	2,60,348	2,19,897	2,45,139	2,41,812	2,81,097	2,35,670
EBITDA ¹	34,840	51,364	23,373	41,114	43,311	59,162	32,123	-	52,052	49,237	59,572	34,045	51,624	50,384	62,655	41,472
EBIT ¹	15,006	7,068	16,717	24,943	25,137	35,031	15,240	50,271	42,490	33,584	22,511	20,387	37,198	38,382	44,043	26,853
Operating Margin	7.48%	2.91%	8.19%	12.13%	12.13%	14.14%	7.32%	11.03%	18.15%	14.94%	8.65%	9.27%	15.17%	15.87%	15.67%	11.39%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,946	29,326	-19,560	29,177	-15,759	50,459	25,308	-	36,172	38,257	17,318	21,891	37,330	40,578	45,517	35,224
Net income ¹	5,367	20,429	-16,241	22,739	-20,561	46,815	23,516	-	34,332	27,706	14,433	17,271	27,331	28,834	35,270	20,222
Net margin	2.67%	8.42%	-7.96%	11.06%	-9.92%	18.9%	11.29%	-	14.66%	12.33%	5.54%	7.85%	11.15%	11.92%	12.55%	8.58%
EPS ²	1.970	7.510	-6.070	8.510	-7.770	17.91	9.000	-	13.30	10.77	5.650	6.555	12.60	12.38	12.80	10.01
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3.555	3.483
Announcement Date	18/11/21	24/02/22	26/05/22	04/08/22	17/11/22	23/02/23	18/05/23	18/05/23	10/08/23	16/11/23	07/02/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	55,676	2,05,073	1,81,940	48,554	31,732	2,61,150	3,64,519	4,79,897
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,04,478	1,43,109	1,92,263	98,874	1,71,663	1,68,175	1,71,040	2,11,780
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	20.4%	23.9%	17.8%	15.2%	7.48%	9.23%	10.2%	10.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.4%	13.1%	10%	8.48%	4.21%	6.16%	6.3%	6.44%
Assets ¹	8,41,100	11,39,064	15,01,601	7,30,861	17,24,311	15,56,433	18,29,736	20,50,850
Book Value Per Share ²	191.0	288.0	341.0	348.0	375.0	416.0	468.0	523.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	57.60	67.70	84.40	52.40	75.60	54.60	70.10	69.90
Capex ¹	46,497	37,498	39,523	42,028	30,373	39,996	42,374	46,356
Capex / Sales	12.34%	7.36%	5.51%	4.93%	3.5%	4.25%	4.18%	4.24%
Announcement Date	15/05/19	22/05/20	13/05/21	26/05/22	18/05/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

547.5 CNY

Average target price

760 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+38.82%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector E-commerce & Auction Services

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E-commerce & Auction Services