Financials Air China Limited

Equities

753 CNE1000001S0

Airlines

Market Closed - Hong Kong S.E. Other stock markets 01:38:20 26/04/2024 pm IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
4.14 ^HKD	+3.24%		+10.99%	-16.19%

26/04	Air China Limited Enters into COMAC Aircraft Purchase Agreement with COMAC	CI
26/04	Air China to buy 100 C919 jets from Chinese planemaker COMAC	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,28,759	98,007	1,11,194	1,33,440	1,06,023	1,07,557	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,64,134	1,74,453	2,79,478	2,57,277	2,41,956	3,09,649	2,96,291	2,70,603
P/E ratio	15 x	-4.9 x	-3.66 x	-2.18 x	-66.6 x	10 x	7.43 x	4.4 x
Yield	0.63%	-	-	-	-	1.55%	2.12%	-
Capitalization / Revenue	0.95 x	1.41 x	1.49 x	2.52 x	0.75 x	0.63 x	0.59 x	0.54 x
EV / Revenue	1.21 x	2.51 x	3.75 x	4.86 x	1.71 x	1.81 x	1.61 x	1.35 x
EV / EBITDA	8.52 x	-19.2 x	68.6 x	-6.93 x	28.5 x	7.78 x	7.3 x	6.18 x
EV / FCF	6.31 x	-16.6 x	-21.4 x	-10.8 x	17.3 x	48.8 x	25.1 x	20.7 x
FCF Yield	15.8%	-6.02%	-4.67%	-9.22%	5.77%	2.05%	3.98%	4.84%
Price to Book	1.1 x	0.96 x	1.05 x	-	-	1.3 x	1.19 x	1.04 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,45,24,815	1,45,24,815	1,45,24,815	1,45,24,815	1,62,00,793	1,65,93,720	-	-
Reference price ²	7.069	5.134	4.433	6.138	4.490	3.832	3.832	3.832
Announcement Date	31/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,36,181	69,504	74,532	52,898	1,41,100	1,71,162	1,83,657	2,00,348
EBITDA ¹	19,258	-9,094	4,072	-37,124	8,502	39,792	40,592	43,817
EBIT ¹	9,178	-18,500	-16,862	-46,085	-3,324	16,589	14,923	22,785
Operating Margin	6.74%	-26.62%	-22.62%	-87.12%	-2.36%	9.69%	8.13%	11.37%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	9,105	-18,475	-21,826	-45,877	-1,660	8,092	13,987	18,853
Net income ¹	6,409	-14,409	-16,635	-38,617	-1,046	6,016	9,087	13,436
Net margin	4.71%	-20.73%	-22.32%	-73%	-0.74%	3.51%	4.95%	6.71%
EPS ²	0.4700	-1.049	-1.211	-2.812	-0.0674	0.3826	0.5156	0.8708
Free Cash Flow ¹	25,998	-10,497	-13,040	-23,727	13,973	6,347	11,782	13,091
FCF margin	19.09%	-15.1%	-17.5%	-44.85%	9.9%	3.71%	6.42%	6.53%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	134.99%	-	-	-	164.35%	15.95%	29.03%	29.88%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	405.67%	-	-	-	-	105.5%	129.65%	97.43%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0444	-	-	-	-	0.0596	0.0813	-
Announcement Date	31/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 S1
Net sales ¹	70,868	29,646	17,074	36,868	12,918	11,035	23,953	18,136	10,809	28,945	25,068	34,545	59,613	45,864	35,623	81,487	40,066	38,288	88,747	57,979	34,444	59,809	63,683
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6,098	-	20,189	-3,149	-	-
EBIT ¹	-	-	-7,173	-10,820	-10,450	-12,608	-16,973	-16,373	-12,739	-18,471	-3,295	-2,388	-795.5	5,253	-2,894	3,897	-1,947	1,913	-	-	-	-18,471	-898
Operating Margin	-	-	-42.01%	-29.35%	-80.9%	-114.26%	-70.86%	-90.28%	-117.86%	-63.81%	-13.14%	-6.91%	-1.33%	11.45%	-8.12%	4.78%	-4.86%	5%	-	-	-	-30.88%	-1.41%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-22,801	-	-	-	-	-	2,710	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	3,269	-	-6,321	-9,854	-8,900	-10,537	-19,437	-	-	-19,181	-	-	-	-	-	2,408	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	4.61%	-	-37.02%	-26.73%	-68.9%	-95.49%	-81.15%	-	-	-66.27%	-	-	-	-	-	2.96%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	-	-	-	-0.7200	-	-	-	-	-	-1.396	-	-	-0.2239	-	-	0.1565	-0.1100	-	0.2000	-	-	0.2000	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	31/03/20	28/08/20	30/03/22	30/03/22	28/04/22	30/08/22	30/08/22	28/10/22	30/03/23	30/03/23	26/04/23	30/08/23	30/08/23	26/10/23	28/03/24	28/03/24	26/04/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	35,375	76,446	1,68,284	1,23,837	1,35,933	2,02,092	1,88,172	1,63,046
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.837 x	-8.406 x	41.32 x	-3.336 x	15.99 x	5.079 x	4.636 x	3.599 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	25,998	-10,497	-13,040	-23,727	13,973	6,347	11,782	13,091
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	7.09%	-16.9%	-23.8%	-90.9%	-2.77%	17.8%	19.2%	22.6%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.38%	-4.98%	-5.67%	-13%	-0.33%	1.79%	3.59%	3.8%
Assets ¹	2,68,929	2,89,172	2,93,493	2,96,692	3,17,567	3,35,649	2,53,323	3,53,578
Book Value Per Share ²	6.440	5.340	4.230	-	-	2.960	3.230	3.670
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.790	0.1000	0.5200	-	-	2.030	1.860	1.870
Capex ¹	12,342	11,905	20,170	6,965	21,446	30,192	17,259	24,798
Capex / Sales	9.06%	17.13%	27.06%	13.17%	15.2%	17.64%	9.4%	12.43%
Announcement Date	31/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Air China Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3.832 CNY

Average target price

5.425 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+41.57%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Airlines

	1st Jan change	Capi.
AIR CHINA LIMITED	-16.19%	14.84B
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SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED	-0.30%	19.86B
INTERGLOBE AVIATION LIMITED	+32.63%	18.21B
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.	+28.07%	17.37B
TÜRK HAVA YOLLARI ANONIM ORTAKLIGI	+38.67%	13.47B
CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED	-14.20%	12.32B
INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP, S.A.	+13.74%	10.8B
CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED	-2.58%	10.28B

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