Financials AB Volvo

Equities

VOLV B

SE0000115446

Heavy Machinery & Vehicles

Market Closed - Nasdaq Stockholm Other stock markets 08:59:57 26/04/2024 pm IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
281.3 ^SEK	+1.52%		+0.39%	+7.49%

26/04	VW's trucks arm Traton posts higher sales even as markets normalise	RE
24/04	Nordic Shares Declined Wednesday; Svenska Handelsbnkn Ser A Fell Furthest	DJ

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	3,19,557	3,94,800	4,27,626	3,87,546	5,34,513	5,76,326	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	2,84,157	3,43,800	3,77,226	3,26,246	4,67,813	4,88,813	4,73,018	4,55,945
P/E ratio	8.89 x	20.4 x	13 x	11.7 x	10.7 x	11.9 x	11.2 x	10.5 x
Yield	-	3.1%	6.2%	7.43%	6.88%	6.4%	5.66%	6.11%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.74 x	1.17 x	1.15 x	0.82 x	0.97 x	1.12 x	1.06 x	1 x
EV / Revenue	0.66 x	1.02 x	1.01 x	0.69 x	0.85 x	0.95 x	0.87 x	0.8 x
EV / EBITDA	4.46 x	6.99 x	6.31 x	4.58 x	4.73 x	5.95 x	5.43 x	4.91 x
EV / FCF	14 x	21.1 x	24.3 x	25.5 x	42 x	12.2 x	11.4 x	10.4 x
FCF Yield	7.13%	4.74%	4.12%	3.92%	2.38%	8.18%	8.81%	9.61%
Price to Book	2.3 x	2.71 x	3.02 x	2.36 x	2.99 x	3.42 x	2.78 x	2.41 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	20,32,914	20,33,452	20,33,452	20,33,452	20,33,452	20,33,452	-	-
Reference price ²	156.9	193.8	209.6	188.5	261.7	281.3	281.3	281.3
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	4,31,980	3,38,446	3,72,216	4,73,479	5,52,764	5,14,373	5,41,941	5,73,488
EBITDA ¹	63,707	49,163	59,735	71,196	98,865	82,197	87,091	92,895
EBIT ¹	47,910	28,564	41,015	50,467	77,638	64,883	68,495	74,053
Operating Margin	11.09%	8.44%	11.02%	10.66%	14.05%	12.61%	12.64%	12.91%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	46,832	25,917	43,190	45,077	66,726	63,946	69,087	74,956
Net income ¹	34,598	19,318	32,787	32,722	49,825	48,075	51,232	54,925
Net margin	8.01%	5.71%	8.81%	6.91%	9.01%	9.35%	9.45%	9.58%
EPS ²	17.64	9.500	16.12	16.09	24.50	23.60	25.18	26.92
Free Cash Flow ¹	20,254	16,313	15,530	12,788	11,130	39,970	41,658	43,814
FCF margin	4.69%	4.82%	4.17%	2.7%	2.01%	7.77%	7.69%	7.64%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	31.79%	33.18%	26%	17.96%	11.26%	48.63%	47.83%	47.16%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	58.54%	84.44%	47.37%	39.08%	22.34%	83.14%	81.31%	79.77%
Dividend per Share ²	-	6.000	13.00	14.00	18.00	18.00	15.91	17.18
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	-	1,02,378	1,05,317	1,18,943	-	1,14,917	1,34,302	1,31,420	1,40,821	1,32,405	1,48,117	1,31,177	1,34,564	1,19,182	1,29,644	1,35,567	1,40,933
EBITDA ¹	-	14,879	17,566	18,723	-	16,910	17,996	23,517	27,022	24,448	23,879	23,325	23,390	19,386	18,695	22,785	23,131
EBIT ¹	21,551	10,060	12,681	13,745	26,426	11,869	12,171	18,409	21,732	19,114	18,384	18,159	18,188	15,041	14,160	18,564	18,564
Operating Margin	-	9.83%	12.04%	11.56%	-	10.33%	9.06%	14.01%	15.43%	14.44%	12.41%	13.84%	13.52%	12.62%	10.92%	13.69%	13.17%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	10,202	9,027	13,873	-	11,758	10,420	16,797	14,409	18,636	16,884	18,442	18,406	14,934	13,690	18,359	18,506
Net income ¹	-	7,995	7,033	10,443	-	8,627	6,620	12,910	10,770	14,092	12,053	14,080	14,329	11,410	10,130	13,341	13,496
Net margin	-	7.81%	6.68%	8.78%	-	7.51%	4.93%	9.82%	7.65%	10.64%	8.14%	10.73%	10.65%	9.57%	7.81%	9.84%	9.58%
EPS ²	-	3.930	3.460	5.140	-	4.240	3.260	6.350	5.300	6.930	5.930	6.920	6.887	5.475	4.698	6.567	6.643
Dividend per Share ²	-	13.00	-	-	-	-	14.00	-	-	-	18.00	-	18.00	-	5.560	-	9.000
Announcement Date	20/07/21	28/01/22	22/04/22	19/07/22	19/07/22	20/10/22	26/01/23	20/04/23	19/07/23	18/10/23	26/01/24	17/04/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	35,400	51,000	50,400	61,300	66,700	87,513	1,03,308	1,20,381
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	20,254	16,313	15,530	12,788	11,130	39,970	41,658	43,814
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	27.3%	14.2%	21.8%	23.8%	34.3%	28.2%	28.1%	27.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	7.16%	3.89%	6.39%	5.72%	8.95%	7.55%	7.92%	7.87%
Assets ¹	4,83,196	4,96,317	5,13,339	5,72,463	5,56,567	6,37,024	6,47,064	6,97,676
Book Value Per Share ²	68.20	71.50	69.40	80.00	87.50	82.20	101.0	117.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	16.40	15.10	16.60	16.40	13.10	32.50	34.80	35.20
Capex ¹	18,055	14,297	18,117	20,456	23,387	22,339	22,484	24,574
Capex / Sales	4.18%	4.22%	4.87%	4.32%	4.23%	4.34%	4.15%	4.28%
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for AB Volvo

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

281.3 SEK

Average target price

312.6 SEK

Spread / Average Target

+11.12%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Heavy Trucks

	1st Jan change	Capi.
AB VOLVO	+7.49%	52.56B
SINOTRUK (HONG KONG) LIMITED	+25.72%	6.79B
JUNGHEINRICH AG	+6.92%	3.87B
SINOTRUK JINAN TRUCK CO.,LTD	+27.62%	2.75B
ANHUI HELI CO.,LTD.	+30.15%	2.56B
CIMC VEHICLES (GROUP) CO., LTD.	+7.07%	2.6B
WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION	-3.94%	1.11B
MITSUBISHI LOGISNEXT CO., LTD.	+8.76%	1.02B
SHANGHAI NEW POWER AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED	-28.26%	682M
KAMAZ PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANY	-.--%	669M

Heavy Trucks