What better way to celebrate Independence Day and prepare for a day devoted to barbecues than to end the session with a shower of absolute records - and intraday/close doubles - on the S&P500 and Nasdaq?

The S&P500 climbed +0.5% to 5,535 (zenith at 5,539), the Nasdaq +0.88% to 18,188 (closing at the top), the Nasdaq +0.87% to 20,186 (also closing at the zenith).188 (closing high), the Nasdaq-100 +0.87% to 20,186 (also closing at the zenith).
Tesla was again the driving force with +6.9%, Broadcom continued to set new highs (+4.3% to $1.727), Nvidia returned to the top (+4% to $127.6) for $3,140 billion in 'capi'.
But the star of the day was Sirius with +12%, far ahead of Lucid with +7.3%.

These cascading records reflect an unquenchable appetite for risk since the end of October 2023, and the bullish mechanics were rekindled 4 weeks ago by the feared political chaos in France (now clearly put into perspective, as demonstrated by the contraction of the spread with the Bund).
But the US market remains deeply fractured between 'growth' and 'value', with the Dow Jones ending in the red (-0.06% at 39.300) and seems to have stalled since March 21 below 40,000 (a level re-tested in mid-May).

The rise in equities seems disconnected from T-Bonds: the '10-yr' remains stuck at 4.345%... but the '2-yr' is easing by -4.8Pts to 4.694%.
Note
This easing on short maturities is explained by US figures deemed not too 'vigorous' in the US.
The US private sector generated just 150,000 jobs last month, slightly below economists' expectations and down for the third month in a row, according to ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
US industrial orders contracted by 0.5% in May 2024, following a 0.4% rise in April (revised from an initial estimate of +0.7%).
The Commerce Department reports that US industrial shipments fell by 0.7% in May compared with the previous month.
Finally, with inventories up 0.2%, the inventory-to-shipments ratio rose from 1.46 to 1.47 month-on-month.

There were a few signs of resilience, however, with anticipated growth in the US private sector (final estimate) accelerating slightly more than initially estimated in June, according to S&P Global's composite PMI index, which came in at 54.8 in final data, compared with 54.6 in flash estimates and 54.5 for the previous month (production growth accelerated).
The 'services' index thus reached its highest level since April 2022, with a renewed rise in employment.

The consensus for a mid-September rate cut remains just over 70%, with a second rate cut in December garnering 84% of the vote.


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